Eclipse: Weather prediction for April 8

Keith Gushard, The Meadville Tribune, Pa.

7 April 2024 at 9:48 am·3-min read

Apr. 7—What's the one certainty about the weather for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Monday afternoon for the total solar eclipse?

It's a fair question. Nobody knows for sure just yet but we're getting some hints, and it's not looking too bad.

"The long-range outlook is indicating above normal temperatures," Karen Clark, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Office in Cleveland, said. "We're heading into a transitional period with a normal to warming trend."

However, regarding precipitation — the region may be transitioning from a drier to wetter period, according to Clark.

"It's still far too early to tell," Clark said of whether there will be rain, cloudy skies, sunshine or some combination.

"Cloud cover can vary across the region, and it will depend on the weather pattern," Clark said.

The NWS office in Buffalo, N.Y. was optimistic.

"The highly anticipated 2024 solar eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon," said the weather service office in Buffalo, which lies at the very center of the eclipse path. "Model and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley."

Sounds great, right?

"However," the weather service cautions, "it is far too early to forecast cloud cover with any confidence or reliability."

Meteorologist Tom Atkins with JET 24/Fox 66 TV in Erie is hopeful the weather will be good.

"Both long-range (forecast) models are in agreement for drier and warmer weather," Atkins said of Monday's weather. "It looks (to be) drier and fairly sunny with temperatures in the 60s. The two models agreeing — it's a hopeful sign."

AccuWeather, the private weather forecasting service based in State College, too, is forecasting seasonal weather for both the Meadville and Ashtabula areas on Monday.

Meadville is predicted to have partly cloudy skies and a temperature around 57 degrees that afternoon while Ashtabula is forecast to have partly sunny skies and a temperature around 56 degrees in the afternoon, according to Accu- Weather's meteorological team. As of Tuesday, there was a 25 percent chance of rain in the Meadville area and 40 percent chance in Ashtabula.

The average daily high temperature in Crawford and Ashtabula counties on April 8 is mid-50s, according to the National Weather Service.

Wet weather not winning out would defy what normally happens in recent years on April 8 in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, according to information from the National Weather Service.

There are automated NWS weather stations at Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, near Jefferson in Ashtabula County and Port Meadville Airport in Vernon Township outside of Meadville.

Port Meadville Airport has reported measurable rainfall 76 percent of the time on April 8, dating back to 1998, according to the NWS, though there are five years of missing data.

Northeast Ohio Regional Airport has reported measurable rainfall 64 percent of the time on April 8, dating back to 1999, according to the NWS, though there are six years of missing data.

Just remember, forecasts can change considerably. Storms can speed up or slow down, and winds can shift from the original forecasts. Just a few clouds at the wrong moment can blot out the eclipse.

Tribune News Service contributed to this report.

Keith Gushard can be reached at (814) 724-6370 or by email at kgushard@meadvilletribune.com.

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