Election expert has surprise prediction for Tories in Wales

David TC Davies MP, Secretary of State for Wales
-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)

A Welsh elections expert has offered a surprising take on the exit poll which suggests a Labour landslide in the general election. Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University, has said that it actually shows that the Conservatives could keep two seats in Wales.

The exit poll shows Labour is on course for a historic majority of 170, and the Conservatives could lose 241 seats. The poll is so bleak that the Welsh secretary, David TC Davies, has said he will lose his seat.

Dr Larner however says the poll shows that the party would keep the two seats of Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr as well as Monmouthshire. He says the party would lose the Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seat, where Wales Office minister Fay Jones is the Conservative candidate, by a "big margin".

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In Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Craig Williams is the Conservative candidate who had support of the party withdrawn partway through the election campaign after he admitted betting on the election date. The close ally of Rishi Sunak is not suspended from the party.

He adds that Plaid Cymru would keep Ynys Môn and win Caerfyrddin with healthy margins, he says. However, he has warned there are traditionally issues with the sampling about Plaid Cymru in exit polls.

The exit poll is based on interviews with 20,000 people across some 133 constituencies. As such, it is much more reliable than a normal poll but is still not a reliable guide to constituencies where there are local factors that may influence the vote.

The exit poll, released at 10pm, predicts a Labour majority of 170. Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party is on course to lose 241 seats. Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage is on course to take its first seats with a projection of 13. A party needs 326 seats for a majority.

The exit poll says:

  • Labour: 410 seats (up 209)

  • Conservatives: 131 seats (down 241)

  • Liberal Democrats: 61 (up 53)

  • Reform: 13 (up 13)

  • SNP: 10 (down 38)

  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (up 2)

  • Green Party: 2 (up one)

  • Others: 19

The exit poll is used to estimate the election result before all the votes are counted. It is carried out by polling company Ipsos, jointly for BBC News, ITV News and Sky News.