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Exclusive: More than half of people in England living in areas with almost no new Covid cases

Around 20,000 cases are now being detected across England each week – a fall of nearly 95 per cent from the peak of more than 380,000 in January - Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Around 20,000 cases are now being detected across England each week – a fall of nearly 95 per cent from the peak of more than 380,000 in January - Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
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Coronavirus Article Bar with counter

Over half of people in England now live in an area in which new cases of Covid have all but vanished, with some places not reporting a case in public data for more than a month.

Infections have been so low in areas with a total population of 34.5 million that Public Health England has redacted their latest weekly case tallies in order to protect the privacy of those – if any – who test positive.

These 4,307 areas could have had at most two new cases but potentially zero in the seven days to April 4 – and 1,091, home to 8.2 million people, have had their data suppressed every week since the end of February.

News that Covid infections are fading in parts of England comes in the week that Boris Johnson confirmed that the lifting of lockdown would continue as planned with the outdoor reopening of pubs and restaurants, as well as non-essential shops, on Monday.

Underpinning the Government's green light are four tests which, apart from the continued success of the UK's vaccine drive, include infections remaining low enough to avoid a surge in hospitalisations that could overwhelm the NHS after unlocking.

Around 20,000 cases are now being detected across England each week – a fall of nearly 95 per cent from the peak of more than 380,000 during the worst week of the second wave.

At that time in January, only six neighbourhoods out of a total of 6,791 in PHE's data had low enough cases to require redaction under data protection rules, as the more contagious Kent variant of the virus left few areas untouched.

However, many places have now gone months without enough cases to justify publication of their data.

Areas of Devon including Bampton, Holcombe, Westleigh, Lynton and Combe Martin have all gone 10 weeks with close to zero cases, while in Cornwall Towednack, Lelant, Carbis Bay, Probus and Roseland have gone nine.

On average, areas that have had their most recent weekly case total redacted are now in their third week in a row with close to zero cases, suggesting infections are staying low even after the recent relaxation of lockdown measures.

Overall, the regions with the highest share of areas with close to zero cases are the South-West with 83.3 per cent, the South-East with 76.8 per cent and the east of England with 74.5 per cent.

Yet the immediate threat of Covid has not subsided in every region of England, with pockets of high or rising infections in Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands. In the former, 69.5 per cent of areas are still detecting enough cases not to require redaction, while in the latter that share stands at 51.1 per cent.

Although infections are falling in the vast majority of areas, one in seven still saw a week-on-week rise between March 28 and April 4. This data is also at the level of what is known as a middle layer super output areas – the most granular in England for which data is available. At the next level up, local authorities, no area saw zero Covid cases in the week ending April 4.

But with the virus now in retreat across much of England, Mr Johnson is likely continue to face calls to speed up the end of coronavirus restrictions.

Conservative MPs said low case rates offered an opportunity for the Prime Minister to consider releasing lockdown measures earlier.

William Wragg, the Conservative MP for Hazel Grove, in the north-west of England, said: "It is data and not dates. It is good that we are making such strong progress and I would hope therefore that there should be no impediment to progress. If the roadmap can be accelerated, it should be accelerated."

Last month, Mark Harper, the chairman of the Covid Recovery Group, warned that Mr Johnson's pledge that "data not dates" will determine the pace of unlocking could look "increasingly ridiculous" unless the Government brought "some things forward".

Steve Baker, the group's deputy chairman, suggested the "stellar success" of the vaccine rollout meant people should now be treated as "responsible adults".

Better-than-expected infection data led the Welsh government to announce on Friday that it is accelerating its lifting of lockdown. Cases have now dropped to below 21 per 100,000 in Wales – the lowest rate since September.