Yahoo News It’s a Fact: ‘American Fiction’ Has What It Takes to Win Best Picture
It’s not homework, it’s “American Fiction.”
At first glance, writer-director Cord Jefferson’s satire about the exploitation of Black people in media might seem like another “message” movie offering difficult conversations around politics and race. Well, it is that — but it’s also funny. So funny, it just might be this year’s Oscar best picture winner.
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Jefferson’s MGM-distributed debut is taking the festival circuit by storm. Since its world premiere at Toronto, where it won the People’s Choice Award — an Oscar bellwether — the film has also tacked on audience awards from regional festivals Mill Valley and Middleburg. The last two movies to win those three prizes were “Belfast” (2021) and “Green Book” (2018); both were Oscar nominated, and the latter took home best picture.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
Considering that “American Fiction” didn’t have a title until the TIFF lineup was announced in July, its trajectory has been impressive. Before that, the edgy film was a virtual unknown. Since the movie’s premiere and amid the actors strike, the director has worked many rooms without the assist of a star-studded cast that includes Jeffrey Wright, Sterling K. Brown and Issa Rae. If the momentum continues, “American Fiction” could prove a primary challenger to front-runners such as Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” and Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
One Oscar voter thinks “American Fiction” can go the distance. “It’s such a discovery,” the voter tells Variety. “That’s the type of movie that wins the big one. I wanted to laugh and cry — I did both.”
Historically, comedies aren’t surefire awards bets. Think back to SAG ensemble winner “The Full Monty” (1997), which was drowned by “Titanic,” or PGA winner “Little Miss Sunshine” (2006), which was taken out by “The Departed.”
In addition, “Fiction” could also vote split with the same voting demographic that will fall head-over-heels for some of the lighter selections in play, particularly the period dramedy “The Holdovers” from Alexander Payne (coincidentally one of Jefferson’s filmmaking heroes that inspired his visual style) and the Nike sports flick “Air” from Ben Affleck.
Being a newcomer might also be a hurdle for Jefferson, especially in a field dominated by overdue auteurs like Nolan and Scorsese. A similar scenario occurred in 1991, when another young Black filmmaker named John Singleton emerged with “Boyz n the Hood.” His directorial debut portrayed the harsh realities of life in South Central Los Angeles, and it resonated deeply with audiences of all backgrounds. Singleton became the first Black person, as well as the youngest person, nominated for directing. He eventually lost to established helmer Jonathan Demme for “The Silence of the Lambs.”
Also a producer, if Jefferson is nominated for picture, directing and adapted screenplay, he would be the third Black person to nab all three in the same year. The others were Jordan Peele for “Get Out” (2017) and Spike Lee for “BlacKkKlansman” (2018). Both won their respective screenplay categories.
The strength of “Fiction” will lie in the Actors Branch. Despite Emmys and Tonys under his belt, Wright has yet to be recognized by the Academy. He has garnered enormous respect over his career, and if he can clinch a prize such as a Golden Globe for lead comedy actor, he’ll be well on his way to an inaugural Oscar nod. Co-stars Brown, Erika Alexander and Leslie Uggams, all delivering exceptional turns, will only increase the film’s chances.
At a time when there are many reasons to feel the blues, a little “fictional” humor can go a long way toward Oscar gold.
Read the latest prediction updates below.
Current Oscars Tracking
(Nov. 2, 2023)
Best Picture
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“May December” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Origin” (Neon)
“Past Lives” (A24)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Director
Greta Gerwig — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Jonathan Glazer — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Cord Jefferson — “American Fiction” (MGM)
Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)
Best Actress
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Origin” (Neon)
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown — “American Fiction” (MGM)
Robert DeNiro — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Dominic Sessa — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix)
Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Original Screenplay
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“May December” (Netflix)
“Origin” (Neon)
“Past Lives” (A24)
Adapted Screenplay
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Animated Feature
“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
“Elemental” (Pixar)
“Nimona” (Netflix)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
Production Design
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
Cinematography
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Costume Design
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Film Editing
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Sound
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Visual Effects
“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)
Original Score
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Origin” (Neon)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
Original Song
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony” (Netflix)
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“I Am” from “Origin” (Neon)
“Better Place” from “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
Documentary Feature
“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS)
“American Symphony” (Netflix)
“Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
“The Mission” (National Geographic)
“They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)
International Feature
“Perfect Days” from Japan (Neon)
“The Taste of Things” from France (IFC Films)
“The Teachers’ Lounge” from Germany (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Society of the Snow” from Spain (Netflix)
“The Zone of Interest” from U.K. (A24)
Animated Short
“Ashkaska” (Distributor TBA)
“Backflip” (The New York Times Op-Docs)
“Once Upon a Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Peter and the Wolf” (HBO)
“Way Better” (Distributor TBA)
Documentary Short
“The ABCs of Book Banning” (MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+)
“Between Earth and Sky” (POV Shorts)
“Camp Courage” (Netflix)
“Deciding Vote” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Repair Shop” (Searchlight Pictures)
Live Action Short
“The After” (Netflix)
“The Old Young Crow” (Distributor TBA)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“A Strange Way of Life” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Troy” (The New Yorker)
Top 5 Nomination Leaders Tracking (Film)
“Oppenheimer” — 13
“Barbie” — 11
“Killers of the Flower Moon” — 10
“Poor Things” — 8
“American Fiction,” “The Holdovers” and “Maestro” — 6
Top 5 Nomination Leaders Tracking (Studios)
Netflix — 17
Universal Pictures — 13
Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. — 12
Searchlight Pictures — 11
Apple Original Films — 10
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
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