The final poll of the general election race has massive implications for Wales and UK

-Credit: (Image: Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP)
-Credit: (Image: Photo by Paul ELLIS / AFP)

A huge poll has projected the Conservatives are on course for the party's worst ever election result tomorrow (July 4). The polling, of more than 47,000 people, says Labour will win a landslide 431 of the total 650 seats across the country.

In Wales, it projects the party will lose all its MPs, something that hasn't happened since 2001. It projects Labour will take 28 seats, the Lib Dems one and and Plaid Cymru three. Plaid's three seats would be Ceredigion Preseli; Dwyfor Meirionydd and Caerfyrddin.

Labour would take all other seats, with the exception of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, which the pollsters expect to go to the Liberal Democrats. They won the seat in a by-election in 2019, losing it to the Conservatives a few months later.

READ MORE: Keir Starmer campaigns in marginal Welsh seat on day before general election

READ MORE: We asked one of the most Tory places in Wales who they trust more in the general election

This type of poll, called an MRP, is seen as the most reliable and often accurately predicts election results. In this poll, the Lib Dems in the 71-mile long patch of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, are on course for 36.9% of the vote, as part of a UK-wide resurgence which projects 72 seats going to Ed Davey's party. Conservative candidate Fay Jones trails in second with 26.4%.

In the neighbouring Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Labour is projected to beat Craig Williams, the former Conservative MP who has had party support withdrawn after being at the centre of betting allegations.

Current Welsh secretary David TC Davies, and the government's chief whip, Simon Hart, are both on course for high-profile losses in Monmouthshire and Caerfyrddin respectively, the poll suggests.

The YouGov final poll shows Ynys Mon would be a very tight race between Labour, Plaid and the Tories in third place. It projects 28.8% of voters opting for Labour, and 26.6% for the Tories, with Plaid on 24.6%. It calls it for Labour in a "toss up".

How Wales looked after the 2019 election:

What this final poll suggests it will look like after the 2024 election:

Nationally, even in a "best case scenario" the result for the Conservatives is significantly worse than the party’s previous worst election result in 1906, when it won 156 seats and would see prominent politicians including chancellor Jeremy Hunt and defence secretary Grant Shapps lose their seats.

Reform UK would get three seats, including Nigel Farage finally succeeding in his attempt to become a MP. Labour would take 32 seats in Scotland.

A different Wales-specific poll released on Tuesday, July 2, said that four seats were too close to call. They are Ynys Mon. Caerfyrddin, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe and Montgomeryshire. With the exception of the two Plaid Cymru seats, all Wales' other seats would go to Labour, an academic who analysed the results said.