Four seats in Wales are too close to call as Reform overtakes Tories, new poll shows

Four of Wales' 32 seats are too close to call with just hours left of the general election campaign, a new poll of more than 3,000 people shows.

YouGov quizzed some 3,439 adults in Wales between June 19 and June 30 to put together the most comprehensive survey of public opinion in Wales yet conducted during this election campaign. The poll, conducted for ITV Cymru and Barn Cymru, shows that the Conservative Party has slipped even further behind but four seats remain too close to call.

The polling data was analysed by Dr Jac Larner, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University who has said the seats of Caerfyrddin, Ynys Mon, Montgomeryshire and the Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seats are too close to call.

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The polling suggests that the Conservatives have fallen behind Reform in public opinion in Wales although analysis suggests the party still has a better chance of winning a seat than Nigel Farage's party.

Plaid Cymru will safely take Dwyfor Meirionydd and Ceredigion Preseli but could double their seat numbers to four as they are in contention in both Caerfyrddin and Ynys Mon. Labour is the challenger in both constituencies.

How people said they would vote in the next general election:

• Labour: 28%

• Reform UK: 15%

• Don't know: 12%

• Conservative: 11%

• Won't vote: 11%

• Plaid Cymru: 10%

• Lib Dem: 5%

• Green: 3%

• Others: 2%

• Refused: 3%

The polling was analysed by Dr Larner who said that in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, it was now a very close battle between the Labour candidate Steve Witherden, and Craig Williams, originally a Conservative candidate, but who is now an independent having had the party's support withdrawn over allegations he bet on the election date before it was announced. Dr Larner has found this seat is now leaning towards Labour.

The neighbouring seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is projected as an incredibly close call - within one point - between the Liberal Democrats' David Chadwick, and Conservative candidate, Fay Jones. If Ms Jones fails to secure the seat, it could be a total wipeout for her party.

The polling suggests there is no hope for Conservative candidate Virginia Crosbie on the island of Anglesey. She was MP between 2019 and this election being called. Dr Larner says both Plaid and Labour are within three points of winning. It also projects all other seats the Conservatives won in 2019 going to Labour. That includes Monmouthshire, where the current secretary of state for Wales, David TC Davies, is the candidate.

Caerfyrddin appears to be a close call between Labour and Plaid with the Conservatives' Simon Hart set to be left without a seat.