France election 2024: Everything you need to know

France goes to the polls on Sunday July 7 for the second round of its most crucial election in decades.

In the first round last night, the hard-Right National Rally took the biggest share of the vote, winning 33 per cent, while the Left-wing New Popular Front is expected to come second with about 28 per cent and Mr Macron’s Together coalition was in third with 20 per cent, according to the interior ministry.

President Emmanuel Macron called the vote after he was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in European elections in June. It was a momentous decision that shocked France and took Mr Macron’s closest aides by surprise, according to some reports.

Mr Macron said at the time the European results forced his hand in declaring this election, which he had hoped would be a chance for voters to reject the hard-Right and put him back in the driving seat.

But critics said it was a reckless gamble which could backfire spectacularly by propelling the hard-Right into government.

When is the French election and how will it work?

The first round of legislative elections to choose députés (MPs) for France’s National Assembly (lower house of parliament) took place on June 30. The more than 60 candidates who received more than 50 per cent of the vote in their constituency were automatically elected. All others will go to a run-off vote on July 7.

Any candidate who secured the support of more than 12.5 per cent of registered voters in the first round will progress to the second. Whoever gets the most votes in the second round wins the seat.

In many districts, three people made it to the second round, though some tactics to block hard-Right candidates have already been announced: The Left-wing coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts when they arrived in third position in order to support other politicians opposed to the far Right.

In the first round, voters tend to choose with their hearts not their heads, picking the candidate who best reflects their values. But in the second round, it becomes more tactical. Sometimes a weaker candidate steps aside so it becomes a two-horse race, for example between a mainstream candidate and hard-Right candidate. This can allow voters of various views to band together to block a rival whom they deem beyond the pale.

The alliance which manages to secure a majority in the lower house of parliament then forms a government to serve under the president.

When will the results be announced?

The second round of voting is due to take place on Sunday July 7.

Voting ends at 8pm local time (7pm BST), when pollsters publish nationwide projections based on a partial vote count.

These are usually reliable, with official results trickling in from 8pm.

Vote counting is usually fast and efficient and the winners of all, or nearly all, seats will be known by the end of the evening.

Who is in the running?

The frontrunner in this race is the hard-Right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen in parliament and overall by Jordan Bardella, a youthful, energetic new face in the party.

In second place is a Left-wing alliance, the Popular Front, formed from centre-Left, hard-Left and Green parties.

Trailing them both in third place is Mr Macron’s centrist alliance Ensemble, which has been on the ropes since losing its absolute majority in parliament in 2022.

It remains unclear whether any party or alliance - most likely the National Rally - will manage to secure an absolute majority in parliament.

President Macron is expected to remain in office regardless, but without a majority he will have to engage in a French political system called “cohabitation”.

What is cohabitation?

When the president’s own alliance has no majority, he must appoint a prime minister from the alliance which beat him; this is very rare.

It has happened only three times in the history of the modern Republic, once when Jacques Chirac, conservative president, appointed Lionel Jospin, the socialist prime minister, in 1997.

Whoever that prime minister might be – the polls suggest the National Rally leader – they will be accountable to parliament, lead the government and introduce bills.

The president retains some authority over foreign policy, such as holding the nuclear codes, and in theory they can veto the prime minister’s laws, though parliament can overrule this with its majority.

If the National Rally secures an absolute majority, Mr Macron will be left as a lame duck.

What are the possible outcomes?

This is an election like no other in France: campaign time is short, the electoral landscape is shaken, and so other scenarios cannot be excluded.

These include a paralysed National Assembly divided into three groups with no one party dominating it, or an alliance of mainstream parties to keep the hard-Right out of power. An absolute majority requires at least 289 seats.

Ms Le Pen’s National Rally could run a minority government if it wins the most seats without reaching that threshold, but 28-year-old party leader Mr Bardella has said he wants an absolute majority as without it he will not be able to carry out reforms.

What happens if there’s no majority?

The president can name a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats at the National Assembly — this was the case of Mr Macron’s own centrist alliance since 2022.

Yet the National Rally already said it would reject such an option, because it would mean a far-Right government could soon be overthrown through a no-confidence vote if other political parties join together.

The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely, given the political divergences.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal hoped Sunday to be able to have enough centrist lawmakers to build “a majority of projects and ideas” with other “Republican forces,” which may include those from the centre-Left and the centre-Right.

Experts said another complex option would be to appoint “a government of experts” unaffiliated with political parties but which would still need to be accepted by a majority at the National Assembly. Such a government would likely deal mostly with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.

Why has Emmanuel Macron called an election?

Critics of Mr Macron will argue this was a hubristic move that dooms his leadership and will hasten the rise of the hard-Right in France.

Ms Le Pen has for years been working hard to clean up her party’s image and style herself as the co-leader of a new party of government. Now that goal is tantalisingly close, thanks in large part to Mr Macron’s decision.

However, the French president was already under immense pressure from the National Rally due to its soaring popularity over the course of his presidency. In calling the election, he has an opportunity to take the initiative and fight on his own terms.

And at first this tactic did seem effective: it initially threw the French Right into total disarray as they argued over the shape of their anti-Macron alliance.

Unfortunately for the president, it did not catch the French Left off-guard in the same way; they swiftly formed a cogent alliance which has now taken second place, ahead of Mr Macron. Meanwhile, the hard-Right managed to surge into first place.