Talking Horses: Dubai Mile can break Johnston’s Epsom hoodoo

There is an old theory in racing that the best trial of all for the Derby is the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, and while many betting maxims are little more than a fast-track to destitution, 2023 could be a year when this one at least has some substance.

The traditional trials, at Chester, Leopardstown, York and Lingfield, have failed to identify an outstanding candidate.

Related: Frankie Dettori relishes chance to ride Arrest in Epsom Derby swansong

Auguste Rodin, a complete blowout when favourite for the Guineas last month, is now favourite, almost by default, thanks to his Group One win at Doncaster last autumn, while nine of the 14 runners will be racing at the highest level for the first time. That includes both Military Order, whose Lingfield trial was switched to the all-weather, and Passenger, whose only win was in a Newmarket maiden less than two months ago.

A more positive spin on the lack of an obvious favourite, though, is that this is a Derby field rich with possibilities.

Lightly raced colts with plenty of scope for improvement include Waipiro, who was just over a length behind Military Order at Lingfield but is several times the price, and the unbeaten Artistic Star, who is also, a little surprisingly, the only runner in the field by Galileo.

After a dozen spins through all the replays of the trials, however, that old maxim about the Guineas keeps springing to mind, and above all the performance of Charlie Johnston’s Dubai Mile (1.30) at a trip that was never going to suit a colt who won a 10-furlong Group One at Saint-Cloud as a juvenile.

Dubai Mile was outpaced as the leaders got away two furlongs out, but was staying on again with real purpose in the closing stages and was a fast-diminishing five lengths behind the winner at the line.

That also, of course, put him a long way in front of Auguste Rodin, though to be fair to Aidan O’Brien’s colt, he was never travelling after an early bump. But Dubai Mile also beat Arrest, who is half his price on Saturday, in his Group One last year, when he showed real courage to get up after being headed twice, and was just behind The Foxes, the Dante winner, in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket in September.

There was no need to give Dubai Mile another run after Newmarket and he has crept in under the radar as a result at around 16-1. Mark Johnston saddled more winners than any other British trainer during his outstanding career but the two Epsom Classics always eluded him. His son, though, may be about to get a Derby winner on his cv at the very first attempt.

Epsom 12.50 Highland Avenue had been off for 14 months before running his stable-companion Adayar, the 2021 Derby winner, to three lengths at Newmarket last month and will be hard to beat if he arrives in similar form here.

Epsom 2.10 The two fillies at the top of the market have questions to answer after lacklustre runs last time so Roman Mist, a game winner at Goodwood last month, looks like a more solid option with Oisin Murphy taking the reins for the first time.

Epsom 2.45 Grace Angel raced alone when winning at Redcar last month but her form was backed up by a strong time and she may have been underestimated here at around 9-1.

Epsom 12.50 Highland Avenue 1.30 Dubai Mile (nb) 2.10 Roman Mist 2.45 Grace Angel 3.20 Ancient Times (nap) 3.55 Torito 4.30 Caius Chorister 5.05 Mr Wagyu

Hexham 1.05 Jimmy Rabbitte 1.45 Bodhisattva 2.20 Miss Lamb 2.55 Waitara 3.30 Spark Of Madness 4.05 Derracrin 4.40 Lord Caprio

Musselburgh 1.15 Monaadhil 1.50 Billyb 2.30 Gray’s Inn 3.05 Heredia 3.40 Venetian 4.15 Rory 4.50 Stay Smart

Worcester 2.00 Fox’s Socks 2.35 Aviewtosea 3.10 Thirtyfour Thirty 3.45 Walk Of No Shame 4.20 Playtogetaway 4.55 Amalfi Bay 5.25 The Gooner

Doncaster 2.15 Daniel Deronda 2.50 Jiwin 3.25 Resolute Man 4.00 Rathgar 4.35 Soames Forsyte 5.10 Wildfell 5.40 Caribbean Sunset

Lingfield 5.35 Gallimimus 6.10 Appier 6.40 Thanksbutnothanks 7.10 Gone 7.40 Desert Falcon 8.10 Inverinate 8.45 Libra Tiger

Stratford 5.45 Estacas 6.15 Begin The Luck 6.50 Shantou Express 7.20 Admiral’s Sunset 7.50 Lighthouse Mill 8.20 Coup De Pinceau 8.55 Pak Army

Epsom 3.20 Hyper-competitive as always for Epsom’s biggest test of speed, but the excellent Kaiya Fraser’s 7lb claim may just tip the balance for Ancient Times.

Epsom 3.55 Torito was less than two lengths behind Derby runner Artistic Star at Sandown last time and an opening mark of 95 looks more than fair.

Epsom 4.30 With form figures of 112 over track and trip, Caius Chorister should be hard to pass if she gets an easy time of it in front.

Epsom 5.05 Having slipped in the weights, Mr Wagyu looks poised to repeat last year’s success in this race off just a 2lb higher mark. Greg Wood

Dettori lands Oaks on Soul Sister

Frankie Dettori continued his farewell tour in winning style with victory on Soul Sister in the Oaks, making up for last year when his strongly fancied mount slipped at the start before finishing a close second.

Earlier, Dettori had grabbed another Group One prize courtesy of that unlucky filly Emily Upjohn, who quickened up superbly well in the straight before holding off the strong late challenge of Westover in the Coronation Cup.

The Italian rider, who is in his last season in the saddle and had already bagged a Classic on Chaldean in the 2,000 Guineas last month, is in his pomp and the result never looked in serious doubt when he brought Soul Sister travelling well into the lead on the turn into the straight.

“This means a lot to me [my seventh Oaks]. Two great fillies … Emily and this one. I want to soak it in,” said Dettori.

“It was a bit messy to begin with and I didn’t want to go too wide but I kept her balanced and he did the rest. I’m not going to sleep tonight!”

The third favourite Running Lion, a stable companion of the winner, was withdrawn at the start after unseating her rider, Oisin Murphy, and then ducking out of the stalls.

Dettori, who will ride the second favourite Arrest in Saturday’s Derby at Epsom, said of Emily Upjohn: “They went a decent gallop and settled really good. When she hit the two-furlong marker she took off. She’s a top-class filly and things didn’t go right last year [when stumbling at the start in the Oaks before finishing second].”

Winning trainer John Gosden reported: “She’s in the Hardwicke at Ascot or you could have a look at a race like the Eclipse. It’s one or the other and we’ll have a think. She’d have no trouble coming back to 10 furlongs at Sandown, so I slightly favour the Eclipse at this stage, 10 furlongs, uphill finish.”

Coral make Emily Upjohn 5-1 from 8s for the Eclipse, and 7-1 from 10-1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Tony Paley