General Election 2024: Conservative wipe-out predicted in Somerset as polling day looms

The Conservative Party could be wiped out in Somerset at the general election, with one poll predicting that the Liberal Democrats or Labour will win each of the seven new seats across the county. Somerset residents will be casting their votes between 7am and 10pm on Thursday (July 4), choosing both the new national government and who will represent them in parliament for the next five years.

With the Tories performing consistently poorly in the national polls, the Lib Dems have been campaigning hard across much of the county, hoping for a reverse of the 2015 'blue wave' which saw many of their traditional heartlands change hands. A new Survation poll, published on Tuesday evening (July 2), predicts that Rishi Sunak's party will lose all seven seats within the Somerset Council area, with six going to the Lib Dems and Labour winning one.

MRP polls from YouGov and Survation have painted much of Somerset Liberal Democrat yellow, suggesting the Tory wipeout predicted across the country will also hit local MPs here. But at the northern end of the county, it is Labour, not the Liberal Democrats, that pollsters think voters will be switching to.

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Labour victories are predicted by pollsters in North East Somerset and Hanham, North Somerset, and Weston-super-Mare: three constituencies currently held by the Conservatives. In Bath, polls suggest Liberal Democrat Wera Hobhouse will keep her seat.

The Survation poll is predicting a massive Labour landslide, with Keir Starmer's party expected to win 484 out of 650 - more than Tony Blair managed in his iconic landslide victory in 1997, which ended 18 years of Tory rule. The poll predicts the Tories will end on 64 seats and the Lib Dems will have 61, with 17 going to Reform UK, ten to the SNP and three each to the Greens and Plaid Cymru.

Here's a breakdown of the runners and riders in each Somerset seat, and what we could all wake up to on Friday morning (July 5):

Bridgwater

Survation prediction: Labour gain

YouGov prediction: Labour gain

Labour's Leigh Redman (who currently represents the Bridgwater North and central division on Somerset Council) is predicted to narrowly win the new Bridgwater seat, which also includes the coastal towns of Burnham-on-Sea and Highbridge. Labour has traditionally polled well in Bridgwater itself, while the Conservatives have traditionally fared better in the more rural parts of the former Sedgemoor district.

Mr Redman (who has faced criticism locally for not attending hustings) is expected to finish five percentage points ahead of Conservative candidate and former MP Ashley Fox - who dismissed reports in the national press that he had lied about his political ambitions before the election was called. Lib Dem candidate Claire Sully (who represents the Mendip South division) is predicted to come third, two percentage points behind Mr Fox, with Reform UK William Fagg expected to finish fourth.

Full list of candidates:

• Pele Barnes (Independent, a.k.a. Somerset United Party)

• William Fagg (Reform UK)

• Ashley Fox (Conservative)

• Charles Graham (Green Party)

• Leigh Redman (Labour)

• Claire Sully (Liberal Democrat)

• Gregory Tanner (Workers Party of Britain)

Frome and East Somerset

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

This seat has been one of the hardest to predict, with YouGov's first MRP poll of the campaign branding this a three-way marginal and predicting Conservative candidate Lucy Trimnell would narrowing win the seat back from the Lib Dems. But Survation disagrees, predicting Ms Trimnell (who represents Wincanton and Bruton on Somerset Council) will finish third - nearly five percentage points behind Labour candidate Robin Moss and a further three points behind the predicted winner, Lib Dem candidate Anna Sabine.

The Lib Dems won the Somerton and Frome by-election back in July 2023, before the seat was split in two by the boundary changes, and will be hoping that the Green vote in and around Frome does not swell substantially. This is one of several seats in Somerset where it will come down to people voting with their conscience and choosing to vote tactically.

Full list of candidates:

• Martin Dimery (Green Party)

• Gavin Heathcote (Independent)

• Shaun Hughes (Independent)

• Robin Moss (Labour)

• Anna Sabine (Liberal Democrat)

• David Swain (Reform UK)

• Lucy Trimnell (Conservative)

Glastonbury and Somerton

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

This contest is a rematch of the Somerton and Frome by-election, with Lib Dem candidate Sarah Dyke (who represents the Blackmoor Vale division on Somerset Council) hoping to see off Faye Purbrick (who represents the Yeovil South division) for a second time. While an earlier YouGov poll predicts that the Tories would narrowly win back the seat, Survation is predicting a thumping Lib Dem victory, with Ms Dyke expected to win more than twice as many votes as Ms Purbrick or the Reform UK candidate, Tom Carter.

The Lib Dems have thrown significant resources at this part of the West Country, with party leader Sir Ed Davey popping into Glastonbury for an ice cream and bike ride on June 11 and foreign affairs spokesperson Layla Moran rallying the troops in Langport on June 26 before her appearance at the Glastonbury Festival. If these polls are correct, this seat will have gone from one of the safest Tory seats in the country to a Lib Dem stronghold in less than five years.

Full list of candidates:

• Tom Carter (Reform UK)

• Jon Cousins (Green Party)

• Sarah Dyke (Liberal Democrat)

• Hal Hooberman (Labour)

• Faye Purbrick (Conservative)

Taunton and Wellington

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

Rebecca Pow, who has represented the Taunton Deane seat for the Conservatives since 2015, faces an uphill battle to remain an MP if these polls are to be believed. In addition to the boundary changes, which remove many of the rural villages north of both towns, Ms Pow may be badly by the Tories' record on sewage discharges into watercourses, given her position before the election as a Defra minister.

Lib Dem challenger Gideon Amos, who ran against Ms Pow in 2019, looks set to trounce his opponent, ending with nearly twice as many votes and winning more than 50 per cent of the vote across the constituency. Reform UK and Labour are predicted to finish third and fourth respectively, within two percentage points of each other.

Full list of candidates:

• Gideon Amos (Liberal Democrat)

• Charles Hansard (Reform UK)

• Rebecca Pow (Conservative)

• Rochelle Russell (Communist Party of Britain)

• Ryan Trower (Green Party)

• Brenda Weston (Labour)

Tiverton and Minehead

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

Earlier on in the campaign, Conservative candidate Ian Liddell Grainger seemed to have a clear lead over his nearest rival, the Lib Dem candidate Rachel Gilmour. Mr Liddell-Grainger won the old Bridgwater constituency for the Conservatives in 2001, before moving to the Bridgwater and West Somerset seat in 2010, and has seen his majority increase at successive elections despite refusing to take part in hustings (including the Langford Budville edition on June 22).

But if Survation's polling is accurate, he faces a big defeat to Ms Gilmour, who is expected to finish 13 percentage points ahead, with Labour coming in third just behind the Tories. Ms Gilmour's outspoken demeanour looks set to build on the party's victory in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election of June 2022, and could leave the former West Somerset area without a Conservative MP for the first time in decades.

Full list of candidates:

• Jonathan Barter (Labour)

• Laura Buchanan (Green Party)

• Rachel Gilmour (Liberal Democrat)

• Fred Keen (Reform UK)

• Ian Liddell-Grainger (Conservative)

Wells and Mendip Hills

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

James Heappey's resignation deprived us of a fourth showdown between himself and local rival Tessa Munt, who represented the Wells seat between 2010 and 2015 and represents the city on Somerset Council to this day. The initial YouGov indicated a Conservative hold, with the villages within the Mendip Hills expected to cancel out the Lib Dems' power base in Wells and the neighbouring villages to the south.

But Survation is predicting that Ms Munt will soon be back at Westminster, finishing five percentage points ahead of Tory candidate Meg Powell-Chandler. Labour candidate Joe Joseph is expected to finish in third just two percentage points behind the Tories, which Reform UK candidate Helen Hims (who stood in the Wells seat in 2015 for UKIP) expected to finish in fourth some distance behind.

Full list of candidates:

• Craig Clarke (Independent)

• Helen Hims (Reform UK)

• Joe Joseph (Labour)

• Abi McGuire (Independent)

• Tessa Munt (Liberal Democrat)

• Meg Powell-Chandler (Conservative)

• Peter Welsh (Green Party)

Yeovil

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat gain

Marcus Fysh, another Conservative MP elected in 2015, will be looking nervously at these projected results in his seat, which has the fewest boundary changes of any of the new Somerset constituencies. Lib Dem challenger Adam Dance (who represents South Petherton and Islemoor on Somerset Council) looks set to win big, being predicted to beat Mr Fysh by more than 16 percentage points - three points higher than the initial YouGov poll.

Despite a strong campaign by Green candidate Serena Wootton, she is expected to finish in fifth place, with Labour's Rebecca Montacute predicted to finishg narrowly ahead of Reform UK candidate Laura Bailhache (whose conduct at the Yeovil hustings on June 24 raised several eyebrows). Winning this seat back would be a big triumph for the Lib Dems, winning back the seat once held by Paddy Ashdown and David Laws.

Full list of candidates:

• Steve Ashton (Independent)

• Laura Bailhache (Reform UK)

• Adam Dance (Liberal Democrat)

• Marcus Fysh (Conservative)

• Rebecca Montacute (Labour)

• Serena Wootton (Green Party)

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Bath

Survation prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

YouGov prediction: Liberal Democrat hold

Liberal Democrats will be feeling quietly confident in Bath, which Liberal Democrat MP Wera Hobhouse has represented since 2017.

An ancient constituency which has sent representatives to Parliament since 1295, the seat today is largely a Liberal Democrat/Conservative battleground. It was held by Conservative Chris Patten through the 1980s but has largely been in Liberal Democrat hands since 1992. After Don Foster’s more than 20 year stint as MP, it was briefly won back by Conservative Ben Howlett in 2015, only for Wera Hobhouse to turn the city yellow again two years later.

Conservative challenger James Wright is hoping to change that, but — with polls indicating a Tory rout nationally and a swing to Labour — the party’s candidate Dan Bewley is hoping to overtake him and put Labour in second place in the seat.

Meanwhile Colin Blackburn, who has been an independent councillor for Westmoreland on Bath and North East Somerset Council for nine years, is hoping the city will break with the party system altogether and elect him as an independent MP. But it's a crowded field in the city which also has Theresa Hall standing for Reform, Dominic Tristram standing for the Greens, and Matthew Alford standing for George Galloway’s Workers Party.

The race also features Bill Blockhead — who has been campaigning from a bath in Bath — and A.N.ON who wants to offer a “positive negation” at the ballot box.

Though most well known for its wealthy Georgian city centre, some parts of Bath area in the ten percent most deprived areas in the country. Low traffic neighbourhoods have been a controversial issue in the city, as they are rolled out by the Liberal Democrat-controlled Bath and North East Somerset Council.

But when opposing them was made a central issue of the Conservative’s general election campaign in 2023, hoped-for-votes did not appear. Only Liberal Democrats, independents, and Green councillors represent seats in the city — but local elections usually have a much lower turnout and see different behaviour to national votes so should not be taken as a guide.

READ MORE: The Bath candidates in their own words

North East Somerset and Hanham

Survation prediction: Labour gain

YouGov prediction: Labour gain

The Conservatives' Jacob Rees-Mogg is one of the most iconic characters in British politics, which has led to North East Somerset and Hanham being seen as the site of a potential “Portillo moment” if he loses.

The Bristol suburb of Hanham in South Gloucestershire has been added to the western half of the former North East Somerset seat to create the new seat of North East Somerset and Hanham. The new constituency now spans the edge of Cotswolds to the edge of the Mendips and seven candidates who want to represent the area in Parliament.

But though the battlefield is new, it is set to be the rematch of an old political battle. Dan Norris, the former Labour MP for North East Somerset’s predecessor seat of Wansdyke (which had also included Hanham, as well as even more of rural North East Somerset), was unseated by Mr Rees-Mogg in 2010.

Now Mr Norris, who is also the current West of England Metro Mayor, is standing in the seat again in the hopes of winning it back off Sir Jacob. While it is a role that has helped to raise his profile, it also creates the risk of political baggage. Cuts to publicly supported buses across rural North East Somerset are a major local issue and its is Mr Norris’s who is responsible for commissioning them. It has led to a major row between him and Liberal Democrat-run Bath and North East Somerset Council about who should fund them.

MRP polls, together with the fact that Mr Norris is the former MP may lead to him being seen as the tactical vote for those hoping for a “Portillo moment.” But the Liberal Democrat candidate Dine Romero — also a prominent figure in local politics having led Bath and North East Somerset Council from 2019 to 2021 — has said the polls do not reflect what she is hearing on the doorstep. The Liberal Democrats are hoping that the general election result will reflect the local elections, which saw them paint most of North East Somerset yellow, but voters often make different decisions at local and national level.

Sir Jacob has previously held the seat comfortably but an insurgent Reform UK looks set to take the support of some of the people who would usually vote for him, making the seat look more winnable to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Sir Jacob warned in February that the loss of the Kingswood byelection would not have happened if Reform voters had backed the Conservative candidate.

If Sir Jacob lost his own seat under the same circumstances, it would be a bitter pill to swallow for the Brexiteer who agrees with Nigel Farage that they should be in the same party (they only disagree on which of their parties that should be). He told the Local Democracy Reporting Service: “If they vote for me, Reform voters will get 90% of what they want and they have a chance of electing an MP — when Reform on its own is, I would say, a very long shot in this constituency.”

But a key pull for voting Reform for many is a disillusionment with the Conservatives and a desire to vote for someone else. Reform candidate Paul MacDonnell has said himself that he likes Sir Jacob but warned: “If you vote for Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Tories get in, all you’re going to get is another Tory government.”

Meanwhile vote splitting could also be an issue for the Greens. Keynsham town councillor and economics professor Edmund Cannon is the Green Party candidate in the seat, but independent Nicholas Hales is also running and wants people to vote for him to make a statement against privatised water. He has been involved with the Greens previously but has opposed those he sees as “watermelons” in the party — politically green on the outside but red on the inside — as he wants to focus more on issues like extinction.

Finally, the Monster Raving Loony Party’s Barmy Brunch hopes to “provide a none of the above alternative” as well as a statutory brunch hour — although he has a serious point behind his campaign about mental health too.

READ MORE: The North East Somerset and Hanham candidates in their own words

North Somerset

Survation prediction: Labour gain

YouGov prediction: Labour gain

MRP polls have also suggested North Somerset could elect its first Labour MP, if they can be believed.

Although the focus may be on Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservatives losing North Somerset — if it happened — would be indicative of a much more seismic shift. The Conservatives have represented the area for 100 years and, having been the MP for a third of that time, Dr Liam Fox is the longest-serving MP in all of Somerset.

The constituency spans from the Avon Gorge to the Severn Estuary, taking in the three towns of Clevedon, Nailsea, and Portishead. Boundary changes have seen Yatton leave the constituency for the Wells and Mendip Hills seat. In 2019, Sir Liam had a majority of about 17,000, winning twice as many votes as second-place Labour.

In the 2023 local elections, North Somerset was notable for staving off the Tory losses that beset most councils in England. But a campaign focussed on opposition to North Somerset Council’s unpopular “wiggly lines” on Clevedon seafront is likely to have been one factor in this, and local elections often see fewer people voting and for different parties and reasons.

Sadik Al-Hassan, a pharmacist from Emersons Green, is Labour’s challenger they are hoping will be able to unseat Sir Liam at this election. Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats have once again fielded Ash Cartman, who has represented Long Ashton on North Somerset Council since 2019, as their candidate.

The Greens and Reform have both fielded younger candidates. Nailsea local Oscar Livesey Lodwick is in his mid-20s and is standing for the Greens while Alexander Kokkinoftas, who moved to the UK from Cyprus in 2018, is standing for Reform after finishing his A-Levels at Clevedon School last year.

Meanwhile Suneil Basu, a school teacher who previously stood twice as a Green candidate in Weston-super-Mare, is standing for George Galloway’s Workers Party.

READ MORE: The North Somerset candidates in their own words

Weston-super-Mare

Survation prediction: Labour gain

YouGov prediction: Labour gain

Weston-super-Mare is another seat which pollsters are saying could soon elect its first Labour MP.

Britain’s most iconic seaside town has been represented in Parliament by Conservative John Penrose for almost 20 years. First elected in 2005, he won it from Liberal Democrat Briain Cotter who had held the seat since 1997, the town’s only non-Conservative MP since Liberal Frank Murrell’s fleeting stint as MP in 1924. But MRP polls now suggest the town could go Labour for the first time in its history.

The Victorian seaside resort today includes some of the most deprived areas in Somerset and has been without a 24 hour A&E at Weston General since 2017. But the town has recently received £20m from the Conservative government’s Levelling Up Fund to help restore the dilapidated Birnbeck Pier and turn the Tropicana into an events venue. North Somerset Council — run by a partnership of every party except the Conservatives — bid for the funding and Mr Penrose called a debate in Parliament to argue in support.

In 2019, the Weston-super-Mare result virtually mirrored North Somerset. Just like Sir Liam, Mr Penrose had a majority of 17,000 and received more than twice as many votes as second-place Labour. But Labour are keen to take the seat, with candidate Dan Aldridge being arguably the most visible campaigner of the Labour candidates in the four seats.

The town has seen an influx of people moving to it from Bristol, the Labour Party’s south west stronghold, which could also impact the vote. The Conservatives must also contend with some voters leaving the Conservatives for Reform UK, which is set to be a challenge for the Conservatives nationwide.

Reform candidate Richard Pearse is a Commando-trained veteran, who has worked in academia and business since leaving the military. Meanwhile Liberal Democrat Patrick Keating and Green Thomas Daw are both local councillors on North Somerset Council.

READ MORE: The Weston-super-Mare candidates in their own words