General Election 2024 London seats: Who will be my MP in....Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

Nicholas Cecil

14 June 2024 at 10:50 am·2-min read

Millions of voters across London will go to the polls on July 4 to elect the new Government. The Standard is looking at key battleground seats in the capital. Here we turn the spotlight on:

UXBRIDGE AND SOUTH RUISLIP

Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):

Danny Beales - Labour

Sarah Charmian - Green Party

Ian Rex-Hawkes - Lib Dems

Steve Tuckwell - Conservatives

Tim Wheeler - Reform UK

Summary: Boris Johnson became MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip in 2015 and Labour tried hard at several elections to oust him but failed

After he quit Parliament over the partygate scandal, local councillor Steve Tuckwell held onto the constituency for the Tories by just 495 votes in a by-election last July.

Now, there is a rematch with his Labour challenger Danny Beales.

Mr Tuckwell will have gained some support having been the MP, even if for less than a year.

But Reform UK might bite into the Tory vote.

Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone to Outer London may still be an issue, however, it’s unlikely to be as significant as in the by-election which the Tories sought to turn into a referendum on the mayor’s scheme.

Mr Johnson had a majority of 7,210 in 2019 so it’s definitely on the radar of possibly winnable seats for Labour.

Demographic changes in outer London are largely against the Tories.

But they have held this seat, and its predecessor constituency of Uxbridge, since 1970.

Area: The constituency includes the wards of Colham & Cowley, Hillingdon East, Hillingdon West, Ickenham & South Harefield, Ruislip Manor, South Ruislip, Uxbridge, and Yiewsley.

I’m not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check

Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency map: Purple shaded area old constituency boundary. Green outlines new constituency boundaries (© OpenStreetMap contributors | © CARTO)

Boundary changes impact (Thrasher and Rawlings analysis): Boundary changes have made this very slightly less favourable for Labour since the last general election. In 2019, the result was 52.6 per cent Conservative, 37.6 per cent Labour, 6.3 per cent Lib Dem. The changes would have made it still 52.6 per cent Tory, and 37 per cent Labour, 6.6 per cent Lib Dem.

YouGov MRP poll prediction: Labour gain from Tories

Evening Standard view: Tough one to call. Polls suggest Labour will win but the Tories have clung on here against the odds in the past.

Click below to see more key seats across London:

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