Yahoo News General Election 2024 London seats: Who will be my MP in....Wimbledon?
Millions of voters across London will go to the polls on July 4 to elect the new Government. The Standard is looking at key battleground seats in the capital. Here we turn the spotlight on:
Estimated declaration time 3.45am
Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):
Rachel Brooks - Green Party
Ben Cronin - Reform UK
Danielle Dunfield-Prayero - Conservative
Paul Kohler - Liberal Democrat
Eleanor Stringer - Labour
Summary: Centrist Conservative MP Stephen Hammond, a former transport minister, won this seat in 2019 with a majority of just 628.
He is standing down and sitting MPs are estimated to have a personal vote of around 1,000 or over so immediately it looks like a struggle for the Tories to hold onto the seat.
It is a three-way marginal but the Lib Dems appear in a better position to oust the Conservatives, having come second five years ago, more than 7,000 votes ahead of Labour.
The seat has elected Conservative MPs since 1885, apart from five years after the Second World War, and from 1997–2005 during the Tony Blair landslide years. Rishi Sunak and Sir Ed Davey have already visited the constituency, in a sign that both the Conservatives and Lib-Dems believe they can win here.
Area: Merton wards of Abby, Hillside, Merton Park, Raynes Park, Village, Wandle, West Barnes, Wimbledon Park and Wimbledon Town & Dundonald, as well as Kingston wards of Old Malden and St. James.
I’m not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check
Boundary changes impact (Thrasher and Rallings analysis): Boundary changes have made this less of a Labour seat. At the 2019 General Election, the result was 38.4 per cent Conservative, 37.2 per cent Lib-Dem, 23.7 per cent Labour. The changes would have made it 39.8 per cent Tory, 38.3 per cent Liberal Democrat, and 20.8 per cent Labour.
YouGov MRP poll prediction: Liberal Democrat gain from Tories
Evening Standard view: The Conservatives will fight hard to defend this seat. But if the Lib Dems fail to win here it will be a big miss. They should not have to rely on tactical voting given the Tories are so far behind in the national polls and the small Tory majority in 2019.
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