General Election exit poll puts Labour on course for landslide win

-Credit: (Image: Joseph Raynor/ Nottingham Post)
-Credit: (Image: Joseph Raynor/ Nottingham Post)

Labour is on course for a huge victory in the general election 2024. An exit poll released as polls closed shows Labour is on course to take 410 of the 650 available seats, for a majority of 170 seats. A party needs 326 seats for a majority.

Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party is on course to lose 241 seats, according to the exit poll to leave it with 131. Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage is on course to take its first seats with a projection of 13.

The Liberal Democrats are set to take 61 seats if the poll is correct with the SNP losing a vast swathe of seats to leave the party on 10 seats. While Plaid Cymru look set to take four seats, which would be a remarkable achievement for Rhun ap Iorwerth's party.

The exit poll says:

  • Labour: 410 seats (up 209)

  • Conservatives: 131 seats (down 241)

  • Liberal Democrats: 61 (up 53)

  • Reform: 13 (up 13)

  • SNP: 10 (down 38)

  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (up 2)

  • Green Party: 2 (up one)

  • Others: 19

In 1997, Tony Blair won a majority of 179 seats. The exit poll is used to estimate the election result before all the votes are counted. It is carried out by polling company Ipsos, jointly for BBC News, ITV News and Sky News.

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It is carried out by voters being approached as they leave their polling station where they are asked to complete a mock ballot paper. Teams are at more than 130 polling stations across Great Britain. They are simply asked: "Who did you just vote for?" and not, as others do, any more details. Because it is administered face-to-face – relatively few refuse to participate: four in every five people approached at the 2019 general election agreed to complete the mock ballot paper.

Analysis is conducted by a team of senior academics working on behalf of the three broadcasters and led by Sir John Curtice. They then use the data collected by Ipsos to project the final result of the election.

Exit polls are seen as incredible accurate and has projected results close to the final seat count in recent election campaigns. In 2019, it predicted a Conservative majority of 86 seats and the result was a majority of 80.

Of the 650 constituencies voting today, 32 are in Wales. Our reporters are around the country and we'll be bringing all the results, analysis and news from across the country in our live blog.