The Tory ministers and 'big beasts' who could lose MP seats in the election

Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister to lose his seat in a general election, according to new bombshell polling.

According to the Savanta poll, which was commissioned by The Telegraph, the Conservatives are projected to win just 53 seats in the general election. Some three-quarters of the Cabinet would lose their seats in that scenario – including Sunak.

Were Sunak to lose his seat in Richmond (Yorks), it would make him the first prime minister in history to lose their seat in a general election, according to the Institute for Government. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is also facing a battle to hold on to his constituency, with the vote on a “knife edge”.

Savanta spoke to around 18,000 people between 7 June and 18 June for their poll. If reflected in the election, Labour would be on course to win 516 seats, with a commanding Commons majority of 382. The Liberal Democrats would have nearly as many seats (50) as the Tories.

Jeremy Hunt: My constituency is on a knife edge

Hunt could be among the Conservative casualties on the night of the 4 July poll, despite his newly-created seat in Godalming and Ash currently holding a Conservative majority of more than 10,000. He is facing a battle to win the seat in Surrey, with the Liberal Democrats keen on taking a high-profile scalp.

Several other Tory ‘big beasts’ also face a tight vote to hold onto their seat, according to a major poll by Ipsos.

Grant Shapps

Defence secretary Grant Shapps, who had been touted as a potential leader of the Conservatives after the election, is at risk of losing his Welwyn Hatfield seat, according to Ipsos. Their polling suggests a likely Labour victory, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party currently on 48%, compared to 28% for the Conservatives.

Shapps won the seat in the 2019 election with a vote share of 52.6%, increasing his majority from the previous election.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the House of Commons, is another Tory MP whose name has been mentioned in a future leadership contest – in the event of the Tories losing the election. However, she may not even be an MP after 4 July as her Portsmouth North seat is at risk.

Seen as “leaning Labour”, polling suggests Labour are on 42%, compared to the Tories on 34%. She won 61.4% of the vote in the 2019 election.

Liz Truss

Former prime minister Liz Truss is at risk in her South West Norfolk seat. The seat is seen as a “toss up”, with Truss currently in the lead at 31%. Labour are a sitting at 27% but Reform UK are polling 30%.

Allowing for margins of error and another two weeks of campaigning, the seat will be hotly contested between all three parties on 4 July.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

While no longer a government minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg losing his North East Somerset and Hanham seat would perhaps be one of the night’s bigger surprises. Rees-Mogg has been an outspoken critic of some of Sunak’s policies and is a regular presenter on GB News.

However, the Ipsos poll has the seat, which has been newly-created for the 2024 election, is currently showing a “likely Labour” win, with the party on 47%, compared to 30% for the Conservatives.

Johnny Mercer

Veterans’ affairs secretary Johnny Mercer is standing for the Plymouth Moor View seat, having last won the seat in 2019 with an increased vote share of 60.7%. However, a “likely” Labour win is expected, with a projected vote share of 49% on 4 July. The Tories are currently polling at 30% – half of what they won in 2019.

Victoria Prentis

A “likely” Labour victory is predicted for Banbury, a seat currently held by attorney general Victoria Prentis. The Tories are polling at 30% in the constituency, compared to 40% for Labour. Prentis is notable for being the first British MP to take a Ukrainian refugee in her house following Russia’s invasion.

Alex Chalk

Justice secretary Alex Chalk won 48% of the vote in the Cheltenham constituency in the 2019 election. However, the seat is now leaning to being “strong Liberal Democrat”, with Sir Ed Davey’s party polling 60% of the vote. Chalk and the Conservatives are projected to win 26% of the vote, according to Ipsos.

David TC Davies

Welsh secretary David TC Davies is facing a “likely” Labour victory on 4 July, with the party projected to win 45% of the vote, compared to 30% for the Tories. The constituency has predominately been held by the Tories, with Davies himself representing the seat since 2005.

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The manifestos

• What is a manifesto?

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