Germany’s tank debacle in Ukraine is showing the true, awful cost of the ‘peace dividend’

David Axe
·4-min read

The Leopard 1A5 is old, but isn’t a bad tank. It’s got precise day-night optics and a stabilised 105-millimeter main gun that can accurately hit targets a mile away. Weighing just 40 tons, the four-person tank is fast and manoeuvrable on all kinds of terrain.

What the Leopard 1A5 isn’t, is heavily protected. Its steel armour is just 70 millimeters thick at its thickest. That’s a fraction of the protection that, say, a 2000s-vintage Leopard 2A6 enjoys. The Ukrainians have begun reinforcing their Leopard 1A5s with blocks of explosive reactive armour.

The best thing about the Leopard 1A5 is that, in theory, it’s available in large numbers. Starting early last year, the German-Danish-Dutch consortium identified at least 165 ex-German and ex-Danish Leopard 1A5s and 1A5DKs as well as 30 ex-Belgian 1A5BEs – these with enhanced fire-controls – that German firms Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann could refurbish for Ukraine.

To put into perspective how many tanks that is, consider that Ukraine’s allies have pledged 900 tanks to the war effort, reinforcing a thousand or more tanks Ukraine had in service or in storage before the wider war. The Ukrainians have lost more than 700 tanks in combat since 2022.

Only around 150 of the pledged replacement tanks are modern American-made M-1s, British Challenger 2s and German Leopard 2s. The Leopard 1A5 could, in theory, be Ukraine’s third most numerous tank type after the ex-Soviet T-72 and locally-made T-64 – and a boon to Ukrainian brigades struggling to make good their battlefield losses.

But only if those 200 Leopard 1A5s ever arrive. After more than a year of effort, the consortium has transferred just 90 or so of the tanks to Ukrainian ownership. But not all of the tanks that officially belong to Ukraine are actually in Ukraine. Some are still awaiting repairs and upgrades in Germany. Others are at a German army base, serving as training vehicles for Ukrainian crews.

By late last year, Germany had actually delivered 40 Leopard 1A5s to Ukraine. This week, after a six-month pause in deliveries, the German government announced it had shipped another 10 tanks. Nearly a year and a half into the Leopard 1A5 initiative, barely a quarter of the tanks are anywhere near the front line.

Two hundred tanks could form 20 tank companies or seven battalions. That’s enough to fully equip seven mechanised brigades, or partially equip 20 mechanised brigades. At present, there’s evidence that Leopard 1A5s and 1A5DKs equip the Ukrainian army’s 44th Mechanised Brigade and 5th Tank Brigade – and Leopard 1A5BEs equip the 59th Motorised Brigade.

But it seems these brigades have single tank companies instead of full battalions. The brigades are, in other words, under-strength in tanks. And it could be many months before there are enough Leopard 1A5s in Ukraine to bring the units up to their full tank complement.

The Leopard 1A5s are very late. And it’s no secret why.

Ukraine rejected a batch of 10 Leopard 1A5s owing to the tanks’ poor material condition. Similarly, several other Leopard 1A5s that arrived in Ukraine last summer immediately broke down. German officials determined that the tanks wore out during intensive, two-week training courses for Ukrainian crews.

The Leopard 1A5s were in worse shape than the German-Danish-Dutch consortium – not to mention Ukraine – expected. And German industry wasn’t ready to repair a lot of broken tanks, fast.

Part of the problem is a serious shortage of spare parts for tanks – and not just Leopard 1A5s. The same shortage also afflicts Ukraine’s battle-damaged Leopard 2s. The parts problem is so serious that, in September, the Brazilian army suspended a plan to upgrade its own Leopard 1A5s. The Brazilians cited the “global demand for tank parts.”

That Germany has resumed shipping Leopard 1A5s is good news – even if they’re shipping in tiny numbers. But the resumption of deliveries doesn’t make the tanks any less late. It turns out that, when it comes to equipping Ukraine’s tank corps, talk is cheap – and tank repairs are expensive.

The Leopard 1A5 debacle shines a light on the deep rot in the European defense industry, 33 years after the fall of the Soviet Union ushered in an illusory era of peace that, in the minds of many European politicians and officials, justified deep cuts in defence spending. Those cuts gutted key industries, including the industries designing, building and maintaining armoured vehicles.

More than two years into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to resuscitate these industries – not only for the sake of Ukraine’s war effort, but also to support the expansion and modernisation of armoured forces in European armies. We’ll know the industries are healthy again when they can deliver rebuilt Leopard 1A5s to Ukraine in a timely manner.

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