Gregor Townsend upbeat over Scotland's chances of ending 18-year losing streak in Wales

The bookies may have Wales as favourites to win at an empty Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli, but rarely have Scotland had a better chance of ending a losing streak in Wales which now goes back 18 years to 2002. Scotland go into Saturday's game having won their last two Six Nations matches against Italy and Wales, and with their Exeter Chiefs contingent available, Finn Russell restored after an unaccustomed spell on the naughty step then the bench, and a negligible number of injuries.

Not only is Russell back in the starting line-up, as widely expected, but Jonny Gray and Stuart Hogg are both selected to start against Wales after completing a memorable double with the Chiefs. Although there is a trio of notable absentees – centre Sam Johnson is not yet fit enough to play Test rugby, No8 Matt Fagerson was injured in last week's win over Georgia, and Sean Maitland is in Covid disgrace – national coach Gregor Townsend is otherwise picking from a position of strength.

The beneficiaries of those three absences are Scarlets back rower Blade Thomson, who starts at No8, Quins centre James Lang who once again deputises for Johnson, and last week's fullback Blair Kinghorn, who is displaced from the 15 shirt by Hogg so moves to the wing in Maitland's stead. Duhan van der Merwe, who had a try-scoring debut on the wing against Georgia last week, moves to the bench, where he is joined by uncapped Quins scrum-half Scott Steele.

Townsend was up upbeat mood, and is in no doubt that the return of two of the most talented Scotland backs of all time in the national captain Hogg and stand-off Russell, who starts his first game for Scotland since the World Cup after a falling-out with Townsend saw him sit out the Six Nations, could have a transformative impact in Wales.

“Finn has grown into the squad the longer he has been here,” acknowledged Townsend. “It might have been a difficult time for him coming back in after a year, but the way he contributed last week and got involved was great and now he's in the starting role. I think Stuart coming back is also key – the two of them bringing energy and bouncing ideas off each other on the field has been good.”

Elsewhere, Townsend made no secret of the fact that the weather forecast had more than a passing impact upon several of the borderline decisions. Kinghorn got the nod ahead of Van der Merwe because his experience will stand him in good stead in difficult conditions, while Steele was chosen ahead of George Horne as the replacement scrum-half because of his physicality and “world class” defence around the fringes.

Most explicitly of all, Blade Thomson was selected ahead of both Nick Haining and Cornell du Preez at No.8 because the Scotland coach is anticipating an assault by the elements as well as Wales in Lalnelli.

“Blade has a lineout presence and an awareness of a few of the players in the opposition team,” said Townsend. “He had a very good World Cup for Scotland and this is the first time he has been available since then. We see him having a big impact, especially as, given the weather forecast, we believe a lot of the game will be around the tight areas.”

One player who will not be making any impact, however, is Sean Maitland. The experienced wing was released by Townsend to play for a Barbarians side coached by Vern Cotter and Nathan Hines against England last week, but the Saracen was one of a group of players whose flouting of Covid protocols saw the game called off. Townsend has made no secret of his disappointment at Maitland's conduct, although he says that he will consider him for future Scotland games.

“Sean was very disappointed in himself, he showed lots of contrition and understands the situation was a serious one,” said Townsend. “Everyone makes mistakes, so not being involved this week is a blow for him but he’ll come back into our squad when he is next available. He has been a good player for us over the last few years, he is close to 50 caps, and he had an outstanding game in the quarter-final of the Champions Cup when Saracens beat Leinster. He was good again in the semi-final loss to Racing, so he is still in very good form and we do see him coming back into the squad.”

Just how many more chances Maitland will get is open to question. Townsend now has a relatively young yet very experienced side at his disposal, with this week's starting XV boasting well over 400 caps and a level of strength in depth that Scotland have never experienced before. Whether this selection is sufficient to beat an ageing Wales side that can't buy a win just now will become clear soon enough.