Huge election poll predicts Conservative Party wipeout in Nottinghamshire

One of the biggest general election polls yet is predicting that the Conservatives will be left without a single seat in Nottinghamshire. Ipsos has published a poll based on a survey of almost 20,000 participants and it predicts that the Conservatives could be left with as little as 99 seats following the July 4 election.

Ipsos is predicting 115 seats to be the most likely outcome for the Tories, with a range of 99 to 123 seats. For Labour, a huge majority is predicted, with the party forecast to get 453 seats.

In Nottinghamshire, the Conservatives won all eight seats outside the city at the 2019 election. This time, the party is predicted to be left without a single Nottinghamshire MP.

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Nottinghamshire would be entirely represented by Labour apart from in Ashfield, which Ipsos is predicting to go to Reform UK's Lee Anderson by a high majority. Even the Conservative Party's strongholds of Newark and Rushcliffe are under threat.

Rushcliffe is set to go to Labour by a strong majority, whilst Ipsos is claiming that Newark is currently too close to call. Labour currently leads in the Ipsos poll for Newark but by a slim margin of 40% to the Conservative Party's 36%.

Below are all the Ipsos predictions for Nottinghamshire:

• Ashfield - Strong Reform UK - Reform UK 61%, Labour 22%, Conservative 8%

• Bassetlaw - Lean Labour - Labour 38%, Conservative 31%, Reform UK 21%

• Broxtowe - Strong Labour - Labour 52%, Conservative 23%, Reform UK 17%

• Gedling - Strong Labour - Labour 49%, Conservative 24%, Reform UK 17%

• Mansfield - Likely Labour - Labour 43%, Conservative 30%, Reform UK 22%,

• Newark - Toss Up - Labour 40%, Conservative 36%, Reform UK 14%

• Nottingham East - Strong Labour - Labour 68%, Conservative 10%, Green 9%

• Nottingham North and Kimberley - Strong Labour - Labour 52%, Conservative 22%, Reform UK 17%

• Nottingham South - Strong Labour - Labour 50%, Conservative 15%, Reform UK 15%

• Rushcliffe - Strong Labour - Labour 52%, Conservative 28%, Reform UK 10%

• Sherwood Forest - Lean Labour - Labour 40%, Conservative 32%, Reform UK 19%

Kelly Beaver, the chief executive of Ipsos, said: "Ipsos' new MRP... supports the trends that suggest Labour is on course to win the 2024 election with a very healthy majority, while the Conservatives are facing the potential for record losses. Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.

"What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019. There is also movement for the other parties, with the Conservatives facing challenges from both sides.

"The Liberal Democrats are estimated to pick up seats from them in South East and South West, and Reform are estimated to win their first parliamentary seats too - including Nigel Farage in Clacton and Lee Anderson in Ashfield. Nevertheless, this is just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions, and there is still time for things to change."