New immigration rules: where will UK find its drivers and pickers?

Business groups warned that major industries would face a shortage of vital workers after the government outlined its new points-based immigration system to limit the number of low-skilled workers coming to the UK.

How it works

Bulgarian welder, holds A-level equivalent, has job offer for £26,000 a year, does not speak English.

Now: Able to work in the UK under free movement rules.
From January 2021: The worker scores points for a job offer, salary over £25,600, educational qualification, and working in a shortage occupation – meaning a score of 80 points, 10 more than the 70-point threshold. Ticks two of the three mandatory boxes for entry to the country – a job offer and job at appropriate skill level. But falling short on the third compulsory condition for entry of speaking English rules the welder out and they cannot come into the UK. 

Sri Lankan production manager, has job offer for a salary of £28,000 a year, holds A-level equivalent, holds a PhD in a Stem subject, speaks English. 

Now: Eligible courtesy of the requisite educational qualification of degree or over. 
From January 2021: The worker earns less than the £34,000 “going rate” for their profession, meaning that they must pick up 70 points elsewhere to be eligible. They are not in a shortage occupation and so score zero on that point – but succeed nonetheless with 20 points for a job offer, 20 points for their A-level equivalent, 10 points for English, and 20 points for a PhD in a Stem subject – a total of exactly 70.

Italian waiter has job offer in a hotel at £20,000, has languages degree and fluent in English.

Now: Able to work in the UK under free movement rules.
From January 2021: Is eligible to enter on the three mandatory conditions – job offer, speaks English and has met education threshold. Picks up 50 points. But scores zero for salary, zero for shortage occupation, does not have a PhD and cannot come into the country.

Unions said the care system would be “on its knees” should the policy be introduced without further reductions in the minimum salary, which ministers set at £25,600 unless migrants can show they have a job offer in a “shortage occupation” or have a relevant PhD.

Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said the application process needed to be “radically simplified” if small and medium-sized businesses were to navigate the system.

The Institute of Directors said it was concerned the UK’s “economic dynamism” would be harmed while the CBI said the system would need to be flexible to keep pace with changes in the job market.

Businesses including transport and warehousing, food processing and tourism warned the rules would have a drastic impact on businesses and trade.

Beverly Dixon, of G’s Fresh, a Cambridgeshire farming business that sells more than a billion packs of salad and vegetable crops to major UK supermarkets each year, said the firm could now face severe staff shortages next year.

G’s could face a shortage of around 1,000 pickers for the 2021 harvest, she said, adding: “The immigration policy-points based system is unlikely to include workers at the skill level that the government categorise our roles as – which is low skilled. The English language level would also be a concern.”

The Freight Transport Association said it would exacerbate an existing shortage of HGV drivers, whose average salary is above the threshold but who are classified as level 2 or unskilled workers. Around 13% of HGV drivers are currently recruited from the EU, and the FTA said a further 59,000 drivers were needed. Warehousing would also be affected, with forklift truck and van drivers in particularly short supply.

Sally Gilson, head of skills at the FTA, said: “I don’t understand why they are setting an arbitrary level for skills and salary when it should surely be based on what the country needs. These are jobs that Britain relies on to keep goods and trade moving.

“Logistics hubs are in areas of low unemployment, so it’s not a case of being able to train up local people to take those roles.”

Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processors Association, said the industry was “deeply concerned”. He said that 60%-70% of workers in meat plants were non-UK labour, who typically come and work for two to three years, and they would be blocked by the new proposals.

“They quickly get trained and go above that salary cap. Our concern is getting access to that sort of person … We struggle to get that on the home market. The only option will be slowing down how many animals we can take in, it will disrupt the whole supply chain from farm gate to consumer – costs for farmers, and shortages of food on the shelves.”

The travel industry association Abta said that immigration was crucial to ensure the workforce it needed, with the number of non-UK nationals working in travel and tourism nearly a third higher than the UK average.

He warned that up to 15,000 UK employees working abroad could also lose their jobs if reciprocal protections with the EU were jettisoned, adding extra burdens on travel businesses. “Travel reps and other vital support staff are posted abroad to provide valuable services to UK travellers in EU destinations. The [Posted Workers] directive also allows EU staff to support tourists visiting the UK.”

The government said businesses should consider increasing levels of pay and invest in automation to reduce their reliance on foreign workers.

Marshall said businesses had already invested heavily in “homegrown talent” across the UK, “but critical labour shortages mean firms will still need access to overseas workers at all skill levels”.

The public sector and health union Unison argued the plans spelled “disaster for the care sector”.

Assistant general secretary, Christina McAnea, said: “Companies and councils can’t recruit enough staff from the UK so have to rely on care workers from elsewhere. But even with these migrant employees, there’s still way too few care workers to meet demand.”

The UK Homecare Association said care firms would be dismayed by the new policy. “Cutting off the supply of prospective care workers will pave the way for more people waiting unnecessarily in hospital or going without care. Telling employers to adjust, in a grossly underfunded care system, is simply irresponsible.”

Tim Roache, the GMB general secretary, said the new policy would “tip some businesses over the edge” and “failed to provide any strategy to secure and sustain key industries”.

He added: “Scapegoating migrants and playing to the gallery may get some cheap headlines, but it’s wrong and put whole sectors – such as social care and food, not to mention the NHS – at risk.”

Mark Harrison, a policy manager at the Food and Drink Federation, said low-paid workers could not be immediately replaced by the use of automation and technology: “The benefits of such innovations will not be felt overnight and some food chain roles remain challenging to automate.”