Iowa caucuses 2024: It's you and me versus the extremists, Biden tells Americans

Joe Biden has warned Americans to side with him against “extreme” Republicans after Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses.

“Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa,” the president wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point.

“This election was always going to be you and me versus extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.”

Mr Trump won a thumping majority of Iowa Republican votes, taking 98 of the state’s 99 counties in Monday’s caucus and only losing the 99th – Johnson County – to Nikki Haley by one vote.

His 51 per cent share of the total vote is the largest in the history of the Iowa caucus and five percentage points more than the previous record of 46 per cent won by Gerald Ford in 1976.

Ron DeSantis finished a distant second on 21 per cent after seeing off a late surge from Ms Haley, who won 19 per cent of the vote.

02:40 PM GMT

Blog is now closed

Thank you for tuning in to our live coverage of last night’s Iowa caucuses.

This live blog is now closed, but here is a recap of the key headlines from the past 24 hours.

• Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses with a record 51 per cent of the vote

• Joe Biden said Mr Trump is now the “clear frontrunner” to be the Republican presidential nominee

• The former president won in all but one of the state’s 99 counties and doubled the vote share he won in 2016

• Ron DeSantis narrowly beat Nikki Haley to second place with 21 per cent of the vote to her 19 per cent

• Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after finishing fourth and endorsed Mr Trump

• The caucus turnout was down from 186,657 in 2016 to an estimated 115,000 after brutal winter weather

• Marc Lotter, Mr Trump’s former communications director, said the race is now “over”

• Mr Trump, Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley will all make appearances in New Hampshire on Tuesday ahead of the next primary there on January 23

• Ms Haley suggested she will skip the next Republican debate if Mr Trump is a no-show

Do join us again this time next week when we’ll be bringing you the latest updates from the New Hampshire primary.

02:14 PM GMT

Haley: I'll only debate Trump or Biden next

Nikki Haley has said her next debate will either be with Donald Trump or Joe Biden, suggesting she may duck out of the next Republican debate if the former president skips it again.

“We’ve had five great debates in this campaign,” she said in a statement Tuesday morning.

“Unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. He has nowhere left to hide. The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. I look forward to it.”

01:54 PM GMT

Will Trump return to the courtroom this morning?

Magazine columnist E Jean Carroll’s second defamation trial against Mr Trump kicks off at Manhattan federal court this morning, reports Susie Coen in New York City.

Last year a jury found Mr Trump, 77, liable for sexual abuse and defamation after Ms Carroll claimed he raped her in a Bergdorf Goodman fitting room nearly 30 years ago.

Ms Carroll was awarded $5million in damages.

This week’s trial centres on claims Mr Trump made in 2019, while he was still president, when he accused Ms Carroll of making up the allegations to sell books.

It will determine how much Mr Trump owes in penalties.

While Mr Trump had said he plans to show up to the trial and “explain I don’t know who the hell she [Ms Carroll] is”, the judge overseeing the case has said the trial is not a “do over” of the first and barred the Republican frontrunner from denying the sexual assault took place or saying Ms Carroll fabricated the claims.

It is not clear whether Mr Trump will turn up to today’s hearing, which will start with jury selection.

He does not need to be there, and notably skipped the first trial, but has increasingly been using appearances at his many trials to bolster his presidential campaign.

01:49 PM GMT

Nikki Haley hits campaign trail again after one hour's sleep

Nikki Haley has hit the campaign trail in New Hampshire after “an hour of sleep”.

She met voters at a diner in Concord, the state’s capital city.

“We’ve got an hour of sleep and we’re ready to go,” she said after arriving shortly after 8am ET (1pm GMT).

“All eyes are on us now. Everyone’s looking at New Hampshire.”

01:37 PM GMT

DeSantis should have waited for 2028, says Florida congressman

Ron DeSantis should have waited for 2028 before running to be the Republican presidential nominee, a Florida congressman has said.

Mike Waltz told CNN that the Florida governor he had been a “fantastic governor” but should have waited before attempting to become president.

“What I’m hearing from folks on the ground they just don’t don’t understand why he didn’t wait,” he said.

“He’s a young guy that’s very bright, it’s going to be an open presidential seat in 2028.

“A lot of people are shaking their heads.”

01:13 PM GMT

Eric Trump certain father will win nomination by Super Tuesday

Eric Trump believes his father will have become the Republican party’s nominee by Super Tuesday on March 5.

“It’s going to come fairly quickly because I’m certain it will be done by Super Tuesday,” he told the BBC’s Americast.

He added that voters would turn to Donald Trump and not Joe Biden in November’s presidential election because “people want peace and prosperity and strength back”.

Super Tuesday sees Republicans in 16 different American states vote for the candidate they want to fight for the presidency.

12:40 PM GMT

Trump thanks Ramaswamy for endorsement

Donald Trump has thanked Vivek Ramaswamy for endorsing him to become the Republican nominee.

Writing on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said: “Thank you Vivek, a great honour!”

Mr Ramaswamy had earlier said the former president was the country’s only hope for an “America First” leader after he finished fourth in the Iowa caucuses.

12:13 PM GMT

Trump, DeSantis and Haley all head to New Hampshire

Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley will all visit New Hampshire later on Tuesday.

Mr Trump is due to speak at a rally at a country club in the town of Atkinson at 5pm ET (10pm GMT) and will then go to the coastal city of Portsmouth for a rally which starts at 7pm ET (12am GMT).

Mr DeSantis is due to appear at a campaign event in Greenville, South Carolina at 9.30am ET (2.30pm GMT) before heading north for a CNN town hall at New England College in Henniker, New Hampshire at 9pm ET (2am GMT).

Ms Haley went to New Hampshire straight from Iowa and will appear at a rally at the Bretton Woods ski resort at 6pm ET (11pm GMT).

11:49 AM GMT

New Hampshire explained

The next vote in the process to select the Republican party’s presidential nominee is in New Hampshire on January 23.

It is a primary and not a caucus, the difference being that caucus voters cast their ballot at a public meeting and primary voters do so at private polling booths.

Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley will be the main candidates, with Vivek Ramaswamy having now dropped out and endorsed Mr Trump and the other remaining candidates – Asa Hutchinson and Ryan Binkley – posting negligible polling figures.

11:31 AM GMT

Did the weather affect voter turnout?

An Arctic storm set a scene of bitterly cold temperatures and deep snow for the Iowa caucuses.

The wintry conditions appear to have had a significant effect on voter turnout.

Edison Research, an American pollster, estimated a turnout of 115,000 people, down from 186,657 in 2016, 121,503 in 2012 and 119,207 in 2008.

In 2020, Donald Trump faced no major challengers and therefore just 32,389 people cast a vote.

11:17 AM GMT

Mapped: County-by-county results

11:06 AM GMT

Iowa governor will back Trump despite insults

Iowa’s governor will back Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency despite him calling her the “least popular governor” in America.

Mr Trump’s comments came about Ms Reynolds endorsed Ron DeSantis’s bid for the Republican nomination.

“I’m a Republican and, you know, all of the candidates running are gonna be better than what we have,” she told Fox News.

She added: “I’m on record saying that and consistently saying that. I’m a Republican. And we need to not... we need to make sure we don’t re-elect president Biden [for] another four years.”

10:45 AM GMT

Trump victory would leave Europe isolated, Belgium warns

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in November’s election would leave Europe “on its own”, Belgium’s prime minister has said.

Alexander de Croo, whose country took up the European Union’s rotating presidency in January, made the remarks in an address to the European Parliament.

“If 2024 brings us ‘America First’ again, it will be more than ever Europe on its own,” he said.

“We should not fear that prospect. We should embrace it, by putting Europe on a more solid footing – stronger, more sovereign, more self-reliant.”

10:24 AM GMT

Charted: Trump's record-breaking Iowa caucus win

10:01 AM GMT

Haley's 'hard' path to nominee growing 'treacherously narrow'

Nikki Haley’s “hard” path to become the Republican nominee is getting “treacherously narrow”, a veteran Republican campaign organiser has said.

Mike Murphy, a former adviser to John McCain and Arnold Schwarzenegger, said Donald Trump had the best night “he could have wished for”.

“He got an expectations-meeting win of over 50 per cent and he denied Nikki Haley a bump from Iowa into New Hampshire where she is a lot closer and does have a path to upset him,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme.

“But it went better for him than her because of Ron DeSantis edging past her into second. She’s not out of the race but her path is getting treacherously narrow and it was hard enough to begin with.

“She has to beat him twice. She has to beat him in New Hampshire, which I think she may be able to do, but then beat him in South Carolina. So if she can’t get two knockouts in a row then it is over.”

09:46 AM GMT

Republican contest 'is over' after Trump's Iowa victory

Donald Trump’s victory in Iowa means the race for the Republican presidential nominee is over, his former communications director has said.

Marc Lotter told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme that there “hasn’t been a race for quite a bit here”.

“We knew these results right now as they stand are very similar to what we saw in the polls,” he said.

“He is winning also when we look forward to New Hampshire and then when you cast that out even further.

“How does Nikki Haley continue when the current polls have her losing her home state by 30 points?

“This thing is over, they just haven’t realised it yet.”

He added: “You’ll see DeSantis quickly fall in line and I think you’ll find Nikki Haley falling in line very quickly as well.”

09:29 AM GMT

Trump lands back in New York

Donald Trump has landed back in New York City after flying back from Iowa in the early hours.

Footage released by Margo Martin, his deputy communications chief, showed the leading Republican presidential candidate descending from his private aeroplane at a snow-dusted runway.

09:15 AM GMT

Trump doubles 2016 Iowa vote share

Donald Trump received double the vote share he did in the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus.

Mr Trump won 24.3 per cent in 2016, being defeated by Ted Cruz on 27.6 per cent and only narrowly beating Marco Rubio on 23.1 per cent.

In 2020, he faced no major challengers and romped home with 97.1 per cent.

This year, the former president took 51 per cent of the votes, far ahead of Ron DeSantis on 21.2 per cent and Nikki Haley on 19.1 per cent.

08:46 AM GMT

What happens next?

The next Republican primary is in New Hampshire on January 23, followed by Nevada on February 8, South Carolina on February 24 and Michigan on February 27.

Michigan, Idaho, Missouri, the District of Columbia and North Dakota all vote at the very start of March before attentions turn to Super Tuesday on March 5.

No fewer than 16 states will vote for their nominee on that day, including California and Texas which have large numbers of delegates because of their large populations.

The primaries continue throughout spring before concluding on June 4. The Republican party’s nominee for president and vice-president will then be finalised at its national convention between July 15 and 18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The presidential election itself is pencilled in for November 5.

08:30 AM GMT

Explained: Why Iowa matters

Iowa is the first Republican caucus and its winner is well-placed to establish momentum.

Visit our US election hub to find out everything you need to know about the presidential primaries.

08:18 AM GMT

In pictures: Caucus night

07:43 AM GMT

Democrats will be celebrating Trump's Iowa win, says strategist

The Democrats will be celebrating Donald Trump’s win in the Iowa caucuses, a veteran American political strategist has said.

“Maybe the only people in the country who are more pleased than Donald Trump with tonight’s results are in the White House currently,” said Mo Elleithee, a former spokesman for Hillary Clinton.

He added that an election campaign against Mr Trump “gives them the opportunity to make their case about democracy being on the ballot”.

07:28 AM GMT

Trump denied victory in all 99 Iowa counties by just one vote

Donald Trump was denied a clean sweep of every Iowa county by just one vote.

The former president won in 98 of the state’s 99 counties.

Nikki Haley pipped him to victory in Johnson County by the narrowest of margins.

She won 1,271 votes in the county, only one more than Mr Trump on 1,270.

07:11 AM GMT

Attentions quickly turn to New Hampshire

The race to become the Republican party’s presidential nominee will quickly shift focus to New Hampshire on Tuesday.

Donald Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are all hosting events in the state there, with the state primaries due to be held on January 23.

“Often, historically, we will look at Iowa and whatever they choose to do, we do the opposite,” Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett told the BBC.

“If everybody expects us to zig, sometimes we will zag. There’s always a surprise in New Hampshire.”

Prof Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia added: “I don’t know a single analyst who didn’t think Trump would win Iowa... It’s heavily Republican and evangelical. New Hampshire will be much more interesting.”

06:49 AM GMT

Biden: Trump the 'clear frontrunner'

Joe Biden has described Donald Trump as the “clear front runner on the other side” after he swept to victory with 51 per cent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses.

“Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa,” he wrote on X. “He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point.

“But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me versus extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.”

He also called on his supporters to donate to his presidential campaign.

06:20 AM GMT

DeSantis failed in bid to win Iowa evangelicals

Ron DeSantis’s campaign in Iowa focused on rallying the support of conservative Christian evangelicals.

The Florida governor sought the endorsement of prominent pastors, embraced a hardline six-week limit on abortion and quoted the apostle Paul’s epistle to the Ephesians by talking about putting on the “armour of God”.

But polling of the Iowa caucus voters showed Donald Trump won almost double the share of the evangelical vote at 51 per cent, compared to Mr DeSantis’s 29 per cent.

He did win the overwhelming support of voters for whom abortion was their number one issue, but these counted for just 12 per cent of the electorate.

For evangelicals who were more concerned about immigration, foreign policy or the economy, Mr Trump was their top choice by far.

05:58 AM GMT

Ramaswamy: I'm endorsing Trump as US needs 'America-First patriot'

Vivek Ramaswamy has backed Donald Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee because the United States needs “an America-First patriot in the White House”.

“This entire campaign is about speaking the truth,” he wrote on X. “We did not achieve our goal tonight and we need an America-First patriot in the White House.

“The people spoke loud and clear about who they want. Tonight I am suspending my campaign and endorsing Donald J Trump and will do everything I can to make sure he is the next US president.

“I am enormously proud of this team, this movement, and our country.”

05:39 AM GMT

Who is left in the race to the White House?

04:48 AM GMT

Haley: 'America deserves better' than Trump

Nikki Haley hit out at Donald Trump as she headed for third place in the Iowa caucuses, comparing the former president to Joe Biden.

She said: “Donald Trump and Joe Biden, they have more in common than you think – 70 per cent of Americans don’t want another Trump-Biden rematch.

“A majority disapprove of both of them. Trump and Biden are both about 80 years old.

“Trump and Biden both put our country trillions of dollars deeper in debt, and our kids will never forgive them for it.

“Both lack of vision for our country’s future because both are consumed by the past. By investigations, by vendettas, by grievances. America deserves better.”

Ms Haley added that the Republican contest was a “two-person race” – a dig at Ron DeSantis as well as a challenge to Mr Trump – and that she would travel to New Hampshire tonight.

04:42 AM GMT

'We all need to unite behind Trump'

Melissa, 51, an account manager for a software company, was a “caucus captain” for Donald Trump at a precinct in Ankeny, Iowa.

That is the term Mr Trump’s team have used to describe people who have delivered stump speeches for him at the caucuses.

At Melissa’s precinct, Mr Trump got 48 votes, Ms Haley 42 and Mr DeSantis 24.

She believes Ms Haley’s numbers were made up of Democrats who switched their registration on the night to participate in the vote.

“I don’t know if that was a big influence or not - let’s see what the numbers are - but I think that will tell a bigger story,” she said.

Mr Trump’s victory, she says, proves he can win in November. It sends the message that “we all need to unite and get behind Trump and take back our country,” she added.

04:40 AM GMT

'Great candidates' for Republican VP pick

Who should Donald Trump pick as his running mate? Florida congressman Matt Gaetz says the Republicans have a “deep bench” to pick from.

He told The Telegraph: “You look at people like Sarah Huckabee Sanders, people like Tim Scott, we’ve got a lot of great Republicans who I know would do a phenomenal job as vice president.”

04:40 AM GMT

Supporters head out after DeSantis speech finishes

That was a very short speech from Ron DeSantis, of around five minutes.

He did not name any of his opponents but spoke at length about the “flame of liberty” and encouraged the crowd to join him when he repeated Ronald Reagan’s words from 1987: “Mr Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”

Supporters are now trickling out of the event.

04:39 AM GMT

Media has been 'writing our obituary', DeSantis claims

Ron DeSantis said that his opponents — including the media — had spent more than $50 million against him but he had “punched his ticket” in Iowa and would move on to New Hampshire.

He attacked the media for “writing our obituary” and accused pundits of being “excited” to declare his campaign dead.

Turning to his campaign, he said: “People want to have hope for this country’s future, and that’s what we represent.”

He thanked his supporters, adding: “I can tell you this, as the next president of the United States I am going to get this done for this country.

“There are no excuses and I am not going to let you down.”

04:37 AM GMT

DeSantis: I am the next president of the United States

Ron DeSantis insists he will be the next US president despite what appears to be a close second place finish in the Iowa caucuses.

Striking a defiant tone, the Florida Governor told a crowd of supporters: “We thank you for your effort, we thank you for your support. You helped us get a ticket punched out of the Hawkeye State.

“We have a lot of work to do but I can tell you this – as the next president of the United States I am going to get the job done for this country.

“I am not going to make any excuses. And I guarantee you this, I will not let you down.”

04:30 AM GMT

Trump is on track for victory in November, says Farage

Nigel Farage is here at Donald Trump’s watch party in Des Moines.

He thinks the results tonight just underscore the fact that Mr Trump’s on track for victory in November. “I can’t see it being Biden,” he said.

He said: “I cannot believe with his approval ratings falling the way they are, and looking at the polling in the swing states in the last couple of months” that Mr Biden will be re-elected.

Mr Farage also thinks Vivek Ramaswamy has “a big future” ahead of him, despite the recent attack on the Republican candidate from Mr Trump.

“At the end of the day, the king doesn’t like anyone challenging him,” he said. “But I think he’s interesting”.

04:29 AM GMT

Ramaswamy suspends campaign

Vivek Ramaswamy has said he will suspend his campaign after finishing fourth in the Iowa caucuses.

He said in a concession speech: “As I’ve said since the beginning, there are two America first candidates in this race. And earlier tonight I called Donald Trump to tell him that I congratulated him on his victory.

“And now going forward, he will have my full endorsement for the presidency and I think we’re going to do the right thing for this country. And so I’m going to ask you to follow me and taking our America First movement to the next level.

“It did not begin in 2016, it began in 1776. And for the next journey of this race, we are going to make sure that our movement is actually the one that actually leaves and saves this country in the next step.”

04:17 AM GMT

Pictures: Grim faces at DeSantis watch party

04:12 AM GMT

Has DeSantis clung on?

With most of the votes now counted, it now seems likely that Ron DeSantis has taken second place in this caucus, squeaking ahead of Nikki Haley.

That would be a major relief for his campaign, who have faced days of speculation that he would be forced to drop out of the primaries if he placed third in Iowa.

There will now be some debate over how the gold-standard Des Moines Register poll released on Saturday night, which placed Ms Haley second, could have got it wrong.

One possible factor is the weather, which is thought to have affected turnout.

04:11 AM GMT

Trump: Time for the country to come together

Donald Trump is flanked by his two sons, Donald Jnr and Eric, as he delivers his victory speech.

His key advisers, Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, as well as Jason Miller, are among those joining him on stage.

This is a much more conciliatory speech than we might have expected from Donald Trump. He says it is time for the country to “come together”, he says. He even praises his rivals as “talented” people.

04:03 AM GMT

Trump lavishes compliments 'smart, capable' rivals

Donald Trump has paid tribute to his fellow Republican candidates as “very smart people” as he sweeps to victory in the Iowa caucuses.

He told the crowd of assembled supporters and media: “I want to congratulate Ron [DeSantis] and Nikki [Haley] for having a good, a good time together. We’re all having a good time together.

“I think they both actually did very well. I really do... We don’t even know what the outcome of second place is.

“I also want to congratulate Vivek [Ramaswamy] because he did a hell of a job. He came from zero and he’s got a big per cent, probably eight per cent.”

Mr Trump has previously referred to Nikki Haley as “Birdbrain”, Mr DeSantis as “Tiny D” and “DeSanctimonious”, and recently labelled Mr Ramaswamy “deceitful”.

03:55 AM GMT

Trump about to speak

Donald Trump has made his way to the stage at his campaign party in Iowa, joined by family and supporters – including Doug Burgum, the former Republican candidate who dropped out last month. We should hear from him very soon.

03:44 AM GMT

Will Kari Lake be Trump's running mate?

Kari Lake, widely touted as a potential running mate for Donald Trump, is speaking to reporters back stage at his watch party.

Would she be his vice presidential pick? “I’m running for the United States senate,” she says.

03:43 AM GMT

'Not much to be happy about' for DeSantis campaign

Ron DeSantis supporters have descended on the Sheraton Hotel, in West Des Moines, where the Florida governor is expected to make an appearance later.

The early results have not given those here much to be happy about – despite his hopes of beating Ms Haley by a significant margin, they are level pegging on delegates.

Nonetheless, sandwiches have been laid on and DeSantis supporters are circulating in branded merchandise, waiting for their candidate to show up.

03:39 AM GMT

Pictures: Trump supporters jubilant as they wait for victory speech

Shouts of “Trump, Trump, Trump” have broken out at the 77-year-old’s results party as supporters await his appearance.

Mr Trump is due to deliver a victory speech any minute now.

03:37 AM GMT

'I love you all', Trump tells Iowa

Donald Trump, who is expected to give a victory speech soon, has declared his “love” for Iowa on his Truth Social platform.

The former president said: “Thank you Iowa, I love you all!!! Donald J. Trump.”

03:32 AM GMT

Gaetz: 'It is time to unite around Donald Trump'

Donald Trump’s Republican allies in Washington have been trickling into his watch party here in Des Moines.

I caught up with Matt Gaetz, a Florida congressman and one of the most pro-MAGA members in the House of Representatives.

Mr Gaetz, wearing a white “caucus captain” hat, said tonight’s results proved it was time for Mr Trump’s GOP rivals to drop out of the race.

“It is time now to unite around Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party,” he said.

03:23 AM GMT

Pictured: Farage arrives at Trump campaign party

03:07 AM GMT

Trump victory 'will mean vile attacks and endless lies'

Joe Biden’s campaign is using Donald Trump’s predicted victory in Iowa to galvanise its base and boost fundraising efforts.

An email to supporters, widely reported across US media, reads: “If Donald Trump is our opponent, we can expect vile attacks, endless lies, and massive spending.

“I know we ask a lot of you – but I hope I can count on your support in a big moment like this.”

It includes a donation link, asking supporters to send their money to the campaign and “protect all of the progress we’ve made together”.

03:00 AM GMT

Haley and DeSantis should end campaigns, say Trump backers

Donald Trump’s supporters are calling on the other Republican candidates to drop out of the race after he took a commanding lead in the Iowa caucus.

Votes are still being counted across the state, but the former president has taken a commanding lead in the early results and broadcasters have all called the race for him.

Ben Carson, a former candidate in the 2016 Republican contest, said: “It’s time for the rest of the field to rally around president Trump and focus our efforts on beating Joe Biden.

“The future of the nation is at stake and Donald Trump is the man for the job.”

Elise Stefanik, a New York representative and staunch supporter of Mr Trump, called on his rivals to give way “so we can unify” and “focus 100 per cent of our resources on defeating Joe Biden to Save America”.

02:42 AM GMT

Pictures: Trump watches Iowa results roll in

02:37 AM GMT

Trump feeling 'tremendous' amid victory predictions

Donald Trump has said he was “greatly honoured” by predictions that he had won the Iowa caucus just minutes after voting began.

He told Fox News:  “It really is an honor that, minutes after, they’ve announced I’ve won against very credible competition – great competition, actually.

“It is a tremendous thing and a tremendous feeling.”

The former president added: “We have to get our country back. Our country has gone through so many bad things over the last three years and it is continuing to go through bad things.”

02:32 AM GMT

DeSantis campaign: Trump victory prediction is 'outrageous'

There’s a lot of anger in the DeSantis camp about the decision to call the night for Donald Trump while Iowans were still caucusing.

Andrew Romeo, the Florida governor’s campaign spokesman, has branded it “election interference”.

02:30 AM GMT

Trump leads the way in national polls

02:29 AM GMT

'Fake news' cries at Trump results party

Revellers have started showing up to Donald Trump’s results party here in downtown Des Moines.

“Oh look, it’s the fake news,” one man shouts as he moves past the media desks at the back of the hall.

“Fake news!” yell two of his companions.

02:27 AM GMT

Trump allies hail an 'historic night'

The final results are still being tabulated, but Donald Trump’s allies lost no time in hailing it an “historic” night.

“The people of Iowa sent a clear message tonight: Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for president,” said Alex Pfeiffer, from the Trump-aligned Make America Great Again Super PAC.

Mr Pfeiffer called on the former president’s rivals to drop out of the race.

“Every dollar spent by president Trump’s primary losers is a dollar that could be fighting Joe Biden,” he said.

“Once the DC RINOs are finished crying in their cocktails over tonight’s results, it’s time for Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy to face reality and stop wasting time and resources.”

02:20 AM GMT

Stark educational divide between Trump and Haley supporters

02:19 AM GMT

Trump seeks Scott endorsement ahead of South Carolina primary

Donald Trump is talking to Tim Scott, the South Carolina senator, about securing his endorsement ahead of the state’s primary next month, CNN reports.

The move suggests the former president is moving to blunt Nikki Haley’s momentum early in the Republican race, who is performing strongly in the state as its former governor.

02:11 AM GMT

Did Trump fire up base to brave 'Arctic conditions'?

How many first-time caucus goers voted for Donald Trump?

In 2016, the last time Mr Trump faced a competitive Republican primary, he got 30 per cent of the vote of first time caucus goers, says Prof Sara Mitchell from the University of Iowa.

“In the latest poll, he’s got 63 per cent of people saying that they’re gonna vote for him... their first time at a caucus,” she told The Telegraph.

It will be interesting to analyse the data once we have the full results and see how they tally with the projections.

An increase in first-time caucus-goers braving Arctic conditions to vote for him would give us a glimpse of the Republican frontrunner’s ability to get supporters fired up before November.

02:03 AM GMT

Good news for Haley despite Trump victory predictions

Although the final result has already been called for Mr Trump, there is good news for Ms Haley at this caucus in west Des Moines.

In three of the five precincts that voted here tonight, she beat Mr Trump, and in one area, with more than double his share of the vote.

This has long been a problem area for Mr Trump, where his support is lower than more rural areas of the state.

01:54 AM GMT

Elvis plays at Trump watch party after victory predictions

Just half an hour after the caucuses began, and with many precincts still voting, several US networks have already called the night for Mr Trump.

And as the news filtered through to Mr Trump’s watch party, the sound system has rumbled into life.

Elvis Presley’s “Suspicious Minds” is now blaring through the speakers.

01:52 AM GMT

'Glamour to absurdity' in Iowa caucuses

Tonight’s caucus at Franklin Jr High in Des Moines is an illustration of how this system of voting can veer from glamour to absurdity.

Following speeches from Nikki Haley and Donald Trump Jnr, two of the country’s most high profile political figures, a local man who looked to be in his sixties stood up to speak on behalf of Ron DeSantis.

He gave a quiet and rambling speech about the military, interspersed with members of the audience shouting “can’t hear you” and, eventually from one woman: “Bulls—t!”

The man took his seat again.

01:51 AM GMT

Key places to watch tonight

The suburbs of Des Moines, and in particular west Des Moines, should give us the first indication of where tonight is trending.

That’s because if there is a shift away from Donald Trump, it is most likely to be here.

Mr Trump dominated Iowa’s rural counties in the 2016 caucuses and the areas just beyond the suburbs.

But he struggled in the Des Moines suburbs, which voted for Florida senator Marco Rubio.

He also struggled in north western Iowa, an Evangelical heartland, which voted for the caucuses’ 2016 winner – Texas senator Ted Cruz.

Sioux County, the north western corner, was Mr Trump’s worst performing county in 2016.

Results in these areas will give us a good sense of today’s GOP.

01:39 AM GMT

US broadcasters: Trump will win Iowa

Donald Trump will win tonight’s Iowa caucuses, US broadcasters including CBS, NBC and CNN have forecast just minutes after voting began.

01:35 AM GMT

Trump 'face to face' with Ramaswamy at Des Moines caucus

Donald Trump has appeared at a precinct in Clive, western Des Moines - bringing him face to face with his rival Vivek Ramaswamy.

Mr Trump had teased that he would be appearing at some of the caucuses, but hadn’t announced which locations in advance.

It’s a bit of awkward scheduling. Mr Ramaswamy, who faced a full frontal social media attack from the former president earlier this week, is also scheduled to show up at the same site.

The former Arkansas governor, Asa Hutchinson, is also in Clive to deliver a final stump speech.

Ron DeSantis has Chip Roy, a congressman for Texas, here to stump for him.

Mr Roy was already in Mr Trump’s firing line for backing the Florida governor. This encounter is sure to put him on Mr Trump’s grudge list for good.

01:33 AM GMT

Haley is 'Halloween Hillary Clinton', says Donald Jnr

Donald Jr is now responding to Ms Haley’s pitch to GOP voters. He has just compared her to “Hillary Clinton turning up as a conservative for Halloween” and claimed she wants “to be in every war the world has to offer”.

“People like Nikki Haley are just fine spending $150bn in Ukraine, but not a couple of billion to finish the wall.”

It is interesting that he is spending his whole pitch on attacking Ms Haley, rather than setting out the case for his father.

He accused Ms Haley of “hiding behind the stage” while he took 20 minutes of press questions.

01:32 AM GMT

Trump takes lead in first batch of Iowa votes

Donald Trump has taken an early lead in five of Iowa’s counties with a commanding 74.6 per cent of the votes, according to CNN.

Ron DeSantis languishes in a distant second with 15.4 per cent, but is currently well ahead of Nikki Haley on 5.3 per cent. Vivek Ramaswamy has just over four per cent.

01:29 AM GMT

Trump’s plan to silence his doubters once and for all

In a farm-themed restaurant in central Iowa, a few dozen Trump supporters wearing red caps are sitting around wooden tables waiting for a special guest.

As he strolls in, the audience applauds and whips out its camera phones.

It is not the former president they have come to see, but his eldest son, Donald Trump Jnr.

He has been campaigning in Iowa to rally the Trump base before the battle for the Republican 2024 nomination kicked off.

Read Rozina Sabur’s full article on Donald Trump’s Iowa strategy here.

01:24 AM GMT

Donald Jnr and Haley appear at same caucus in 'shock double billing'

In a shock double billing, Nikki Haley has now turned up at the same caucus as Donald Trump Jnr.

She is addressing the crowd, albeit with a dodgy microphone, to spread her message that “you don’t replace Democract chaos with Republican chaos” and that she could beat Joe Biden by “double digits” at the general election.

Donald Trump Jnr is looking from the sidelines, unimpressed. He has just spent the last 15 minutes giving a press huddle in which he suggested Ms Haley was a warmonger.

01:21 AM GMT

Pictured: Iowa Republicans start voting as caucuses get underway

01:16 AM GMT

Trump was 'probably trolling' when he announced VP pick

Donald Trump Jr has made a surprise appearance at a caucus in northwest Des Moines tonight. He will be speaking to voters on behalf of his father.

Asked if Nikki Haley could become Trump’s running mate, Don Jr told The Telegraph: “I doubt that.

“I think there’s probably a lot of credible options right now, and there’s a lot of people I’d be fine with and a lot of people I’d go very aggressively against.”

Asked if Ms Haley was one of those people, he said: “I probably wouldn’t be a huge fan.”

He added that Mr Trump was “probably trolling those people” when he said on Wednesday night that he had already chosen his running mate.

01:05 AM GMT

Popcorn and beers at Trump watch party

The caucuses are only just getting going, but the popcorn and beers are ready and waiting at Donald Trump’s results night watch party here in downtown Des Moines.

The former president’s team, including his son, Eric Trump, have insisted they are focused on November.

But there’s no doubt a major win here tonight would certainly help get their race to the general election off with a bang.

01:03 AM GMT

Trump takes lead in CNN entrance poll

Donald Trump is expected to take an early lead in the Iowa caucuses, according to CNN’s entrance poll.

The poll, which questioned caucus-goers before voting started, failed to pick a second-place candidate between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis – suggesting a tense night ahead for both.

01:01 AM GMT

Iowa caucuses begin

Iowa caucuses are now open, and Republicans have begun selecting their pick for presidential candidate. We’re expecting the first results to come in around an hour.

12:56 AM GMT

Haley 'has got the best chance of beating Trump'

Ryan Zantingh, 39, says he has decided to vote for Nikki Haley — but it’s not her policy platform that has convinced him.

“She’s not Trump, and I think she’s got the best chance of beating him,” he told The Telegraph.

“So that’s the biggest reason I support her.”

Mr Zantingh, a financial aid director, said Mr Trump was “not a man of character” and that the Capitol riots of January 6, 2021 were “proof of that”.

“I’m a never Trumper,” he adds.  

12:52 AM GMT

'I found myself up to my shins in snow'

I’ve just done the journey many Republicans will be making this evening, from a house we are renting in West Des Moines to a caucus location at Franklin Jr High School.

It’s easy to see why there are concerns about turnout tonight, with temperatures of -20C and snow covering many of the residential roads around the caucus site.

I took a 20-minute walk and found myself up to my shins in snow more than once. The weather here tonight could make a significant difference to the overall result as some of the candidates’ less committed supporters stay home and warm.

12:20 AM GMT

Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis in the polls

Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis in a national poll of polls, giving the former South Carolina governor a boost ahead of tonight’s Iowa caucuses, US Correspondent Susie Coen writes.

FiveThirtyEight gives Ms Haley a 0.3 per cent lead over Mr DeSantis, with 11.9 per cent compared to 11.6 per cent.

While Donald Trump is still miles ahead, with 63.1 per cent, Ms Haley has been gaining momentum in recent weeks as she fights it out with the Florida governor to become the GOP’s non-Trump candidate.

FiveThirtyEight’s survey is essentially a “poll of polls”, which takes into account how and when they were compiled, along with the methodology and sample size.

While it is not the first time the pollster has put Ms Haley ahead of Mr DeSantis, it is the most commanding lead she has had over Mr DeSantis so far.

11:33 PM GMT

Trump: Florida senators 'know something' about DeSantis

Florida’s senators decided not to endorse Ron DeSantis because they “know something” about the Florida Governor, Mr Trump has claimed ahead of tonight’s Iowa caucus.

“Thank you to Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott of Florida for the great Endorsements,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

“Nice when both highly respected Republican Florida Senators ENDROSE TRUMP over the missing from Florida Governor, Ron DeSantimonious! They know something that others don’t.”

Mr Rubio, who has previously been ridiculed as “Little Marco” by Mr Trump, placed third in Iowa in the 2016 Republican primaries, falling behind the former president and Texas senator Ted Cruz.

11:18 PM GMT

Pictured: Trump spotted with campaign advisers in Iowa

11:02 PM GMT

Pictures: Donald Trump's face is plastered across Iowa

10:39 PM GMT

Who are the candidates running in Iowa?

The 2024 presidential race kicks off on Monday, when the first votes in the Republican primary contest will be cast in Iowa.

Donald Trump remains the clear frontrunner to claim the GOP nomination, but his rivals still believe a strong showing could call the former president’s supremacy over the Republican Party into question.

Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy have pinned their hopes on the early states. Iowa is first on January 15, New Hampshire next on January 23.

Read Rozina Sabur’s breakdown of all the candidates hoping to claim victory in Iowa here.

10:28 PM GMT

Welcome

Hello and welcome to the live blog if you’re just joining us. Benedict Smith here, taking over from Susie Coen as the campaigns spur on their supporters to brave the freezing temperatures and turn out for the Iowa caucuses.

10:02 PM GMT

Iowa in pictures

09:52 PM GMT

Ron DeSantis awarded 'participation' trophy by heckler

As Mr DeSantis braved Iowa’s icy roads and temperatures well below zero to meet supporters in a small community room on Sunday, he faced an awkward encounter.

A comedian carrying a gold trophy interrupted to walk up and thank the Republican presidential candidate for his “participation” in the 2024 race.

“Governor DeSantis, I want to present to you this participation trophy,” he told him.

“Now, [you’re] probably not gonna win the election, right? But we’re proud of you for trying,” the man added. “He’s special, he’s unique, and he’s our little snowflake.”

Read the full story from our Deputy US Editor Rozina Sabur

09:33 PM GMT

Haley 'has the experience' to be the Trump alternative

“If you are a Republican who does not want another four years of Trump or don’t want him to be the candidate, you are probably going to go with who appears to be the strongest alternative,” Christopher Galdieri, professor of politics at Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire told the Telegraph.

“The DeSantis story has, over the past few months, been one of his campaign tanking.

“Haley has given solid debate performances, she has run a state and she has been a UN ambassador. So she has the experience.”

09:21 PM GMT

Trump predicts a 'tremendous night'

The former president has said he is expecting to have a “tremendous night” ahead of the Iowa caucuses.

“We’re gonna have a great night. And a fantastic place. We’ve won it twice, as you know, two elections. And I think we’re going to have a tremendous night tonight,” Mr Trump said as he left his hotel on Monday afternoon.

Mr Trump, 77, won Iowa during the general elections in 2016 and 2020, but lost the caucus in 2016 to Ted Cruz.

08:48 PM GMT

Haley rolls up her sleeves during campaign stop

08:25 PM GMT

Haley pips DeSantis in national polls

Nikki Haley has usurped Ron DeSantis in the national polls ahead of tonight’s Iowa caucuses, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The survey gives the South Carolina governor a 0.3 per cent lead over Mr DeSantis, with 11.9 per cent compared to 11.6 per cent.

Former president Donald Trump still has a commanding lead, averaging 63.1 per cent.

Ms Haley briefly surpassed Mr DeSantis earlier this month, but the Florida governor had regained his second-place spot by the end of the day.

FiveThirtyEight’s survey is essentially a “poll of polls”, taking into account how and when they were compiled, along with the methodology and sample size.

Tech tycoon Vivek Ramaswamy’s poll average is 4.1 percent and Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor is at one per cent.

08:00 PM GMT

Ron DeSantis makes campaign stop ahead of tonight's votes

07:55 PM GMT

'Speak from the heart', Nikki Haley urges caucus captains

Dozens of people packed into a diner in Des Moines to hear Nikki Haley speak on Monday morning.

“It’s caucus day. Get excited!” Ms Haley said to a the crowd, many of whom drank coffee from cups covered in “Pick Nikki” stickers.

Speaking directly to those serving as caucus captains, Ms Haley asked them to “speak from the heart” during their speeches.

The GOP candidate plans to make several stops in central Iowa ahead of Monday night’s votes, including making an appearance at a caucus location before heading to her campaign celebration.

07:45 PM GMT

Ron DeSantis tells Iowans; bring friends, family and neighbours to vote

07:13 PM GMT

Coldest temperatures in caucus history

Today’s freezing temperatures are the coldest caucus history.

While the Iowa caucuses have been held since 1972, temperatures have always reached at least -9 degrees Celsius or higher.

The weather in the Hawkeye State is currently -18 degrees Celsius, with wind chills making it feel even colder.

There are dangerous travel conditions in virtually every corner of the state.

06:50 PM GMT

Stage is ready for Donald Trump's watch party tonight

06:39 PM GMT

Nikki Haley praises 'energy on the ground' today

05:36 PM GMT

Trump doubles down on brutal Haley attacks

05:15 PM GMT

Enthusiasm among Iowa supporters

04:46 PM GMT

How many voters are expected tonight?

There are just over 752,000 registered Republicans in Iowa who are eligible to participate in tonight’s caucus.

In 2016 a record 187,000 votes were cast in the GOP’s Hawkeye State caucus.

But icy roads and travel warnings put the numbers in jeopardy, with all candidates urging their supporters to brave the weather to make their voices heard.

The National Weather Service predicted the wind chill temperature could reach minus 43 degrees Celsius in some parts of the state.

Mr Trump’s grip on his most loyal supporters may give him an edge if the freezing conditions convince some voters to stay home.

04:39 PM GMT

Republican endorsements

04:29 PM GMT

What each candidate needs to do to win tonight

Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses have set the tempo for US presidential races.

As the first state in the nation to have their say in the primary nomination contest, Iowa has the ability to make or break a White House bid.

Victory in the Midwestern state offers a far smaller prize than the delegate-rich states of Texas or California. But it gives a candidate what George HW Bush dubbed the “Big Mo” – momentum.

Defining what might be a successful night in the state’s caucuses is a moving target – shaped by both the extent to which the final results match the polling projections, and to a candidate’s own expectation-setting.

Read more here as our Deputy US Editor Rozina Sabur brings you up to speed on each candidate

04:12 PM GMT

Who can beat Biden?

Hanging over this Iowa caucus is a hypothetical question that Republicans have to wrestle with before casting their votes tonight.

Which of the candidates has the best chance of beating Joe Biden in the general election this November?

The latest poll, from CBS this morning, puts Donald Trump on 50 per cent and Mr Biden on 48 per cent. For weeks, the pair have been practically neck and neck.

The same poll showed that Nikki Haley would win by eight points (53 per cent to 45 per cent), while Mr DeSantis would win by 51 per cent to Mr Biden’s 48 per cent.

These numbers will be weighing heavily on the minds of caucusgoers tonight, as they work out their party’s safest route to denying the president a second term.

04:11 PM GMT

Today in pictures

04:01 PM GMT

Haley tells Iowa caucus-goers to 'layer up'

03:56 PM GMT

Have your say: who should be the Republican nominee?

03:48 PM GMT

Iowa: pictures from the ground

03:40 PM GMT

Telegraph reporters face icy roads and frozen hair

The Telegraph’s US team is among the 1,000 journalists from 21 countries who have descended on Iowa in the last few days to cover the caucuses.

We have been layering up with as many articles of clothing as we can when we venture outdoors, and have been trying to avoid staying outside for more than 20 to 30 minutes at a time.

At -25 C, it doesn’t take long for your fingers to lose feeling, no matter how many pairs of gloves you have on. The strangest part for me was finding strands of my hair had frozen. They looked like tiny icicles.

I’m a novice when it comes to driving on icy roads, but the state’s unofficial mantra, “Iowa nice”, has proved itself to be true.

The brave few motorists venturing out are always happy to give their fellows a push when they get stuck in the snow.

When I went to pick up my rental car at the airport a few days ago, a member of staff took one look at my selection and decided it wasn’t appropriate for the foot of snow expected to fall that night.

She quickly upgraded me to a jeep, which has proved easier to navigate on icy roads.

Still, driving on the roads is hazardous and all of the candidates’ schedules have been upended by the record-breaking Arctic snap.

03:32 PM GMT

Donald Trump attacks rivals ahead of tonight's caucus

03:20 PM GMT

Nikki Haley's final push for votes

Nikki Haley has a busy schedule today as she makes the final push to turn the polls placing her in second place to Donald Trump into a reality.

The former South Carolina governor is billed to attend several events, host a town hall and visit a caucus site.

She will also speak at her own watch party before Iowans cast their votes. 

02:59 PM GMT

Today's schedule

The Iowa caucus officially starts at 7pm local time (1am GMT), but voters are urged to arrive early to ensure they register in time.

Caucusgoers will then elect a chair and secretary to preside over the event.

Supporters for each candidate will then take to the stage in a bid to convince their peers why they should vote for them.

Participants will then cast their secret ballots. The votes are collected, counted and then typically announced to the room.

The results are usually available within a few hours. 

02:43 PM GMT

The Telegraph's US election guide

02:25 PM GMT

Extreme Iowa weather in pictures

02:09 PM GMT

Haley: voters aren't put off by the snow

Nikki Haley has claimed Iowans are “not deterred” by today’s freezing temperatures and are “determined to get out and vote”.

“From everything we’ve seen, they plan on getting out, they plan on caucusing”, the former South Carolina governor told Fox and Friends.

“And we’re not deterred either. We’re going to be out there in the snow until the very last second trying to earn every vote”, she said. 

01:50 PM GMT

Nikki Haley's own supporters don't even like her

Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis in Iowa, according to the latest polls.

But while the former South Carolina governor is experiencing a surge in support and is on course to become the main non-Trump candidate, it appears Ms Haley’s backers are not totally convinced she is up to the job.

A survey found that while 88 per cent of Mr Trump’s voters and 68 per cent of Mr DeSantis’s voters are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about their candidate, just 39 per cent Ms Haley’s backers said the same.

The Telegraph’s US Editor Tony Diver unpicks what this could mean for Ms Haley’s presidential bid.

01:35 PM GMT

Ron DeSantis urges voters to brave the cold

01:33 PM GMT

What is a caucus?

Caucuses were once the norm for political parties in the US to choose their candidates, requiring voters to attend in person.

By the 20th century, however, states began to move to the system known as primaries, allowing ballots to be cast in secret, a process they saw as fairer.

To participate in the Iowa Republican caucus, voters must be registered as a Republican. The same conditions apply to Democrats.

At the end of the process each candidate is allocated delegates according to the number of votes they received. The final allocation of delegates for the party’s national convention is determined by the state convention.

Read more about how a caucus works and what to expect in Iowa here

01:25 PM GMT

Welcome

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of today’s Iowa caucus.

We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates from the freezing Midwestern state, so please do follow along.