Keir Starmer set for No10 as final poll shows Tories flatlining on 19% record low

Sir Keir Starmer was set to enter No10 as Prime Minister on Friday, according to the final poll of the election campaign by Ipsos which showed Rishi Sunak’s Tories flatlining on a record low of 19 per cent.

The exclusive survey for The Standard revealed that nearly three in ten voters say they may still change their mind, but even if they did the findings suggest it would not stop a Labour victory.

The poll showed Labour falling five points but still with an 18-point lead over the Conservatives, according to the fieldwork which ended on Wednesday evening.

Sir Keir, who will be in Downing Street within around 24 hours unless the polls are historically wrong, sees his party on 37 per cent, down five points on last week.

The Tories are unchanged on 19 per cent, the lowest share of the vote recorded by Ipsos since the late 1970s for the party.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is on 15 per cent, gnawing into the Tory vote, having surged after his U-turn to take over as party leader rather than head to American to campaign for Donald Trump.

The Liberal Democrats are on 11 per cent, unchanged, and Green Party nine per cent, up two points.

As Sir Keir prepares for government, he has seen a big drop in Britons who believe he would make the most capable Prime Minister, on 36 per cent, down from 46 per cent last week.

But he still has a 15-point lead over Rishi Sunak who is stuck on 21 per cent as the “best PM”.

These findings, though, may not be set in stone as 28 per cent of voters say they may still change their mind, the highest figure recorded ahead of an election by Ipsos since May 2010, and compared to 23 per cent in Boris Johnson’s Brexit December 2019 election.

Liberal Democrat supporters (41 per cent) and young adults aged 18-34 (39 per cent) are the most likely to say they may change their mind, which compares to 13 per cent of Reform backers.

But if people do switch at the last minute, the polling evidence suggest it is unlikely to benefit the Tories significantly.

Asked which party they would vote for if they did change their mind, 18 per cent said the Lib Dems, 16 per cent the Greens, 15 per cent Labour, nine per cent the Conservatives, and seven per cent for Reform.

The Tories are holding onto less than half of their 2019 voters, with Reform benefiting most from this slump.

There may still be some “shy Tories” which polls are not picking up, given the unpopularity of the government.

But the survey also pointed to higher than normal levels of tactical voting, which could particularly hit the Tories.

One in six (17 per cent) said they were picking a party to keep another party out, as the party they support has little chance of winning in their constituency.

This figure was the highest level Ipsos has recorded at this late stage of an election going back to 1987.

More than one in three Lib Dem supporters (37 per cent) is likely to be voting tactically.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “There has been a profound change in Britain’s political landscape since the last election.

“The Conservatives’ base has fractured – losing votes on both sides - amidst concerns over public services, the economy and cost of living, immigration, and their record of delivery, and as the brand of their party and of their leaders has been damaged.

“Labour meanwhile look set to enter government with a healthy majority.”

Labour leads the Conservatives on having the best team of leaders to deal with Britain’s problems (by 27 per cent to 13 per cent), best at looking after the interests of people like you (26/17), best policies for the country as a whole (24/14), and closest to standing for the things you believe in (23/15).

Turnout could be lower than normal, with 70 per cent saying they are certain to vote, compared with 80 per cent at this stage in 2019, and these figures normally overstate actual turnout on the day.

Sir Keir, writing on social media site X as polls opened, said: “Change. Today, you can vote for it.”

Ahead of 7am, Mr Sunak posted a series of messages on the same site, formerly known as Twitter, which urged voters to “stop the Labour supermajority”.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey stressed: “This election is our chance to win the change our country desperately needs.”

Green Party co-leader Adrian Ramsay, messaged: “Today’s the opportunity to vote for real hope and real change.”

Mr Farage said: “Vote for real change today. Vote Reform UK.”

* Ipsos interviewed 2,076 adults across Britain between July 1 and 3. Data are weighted. Full details can be found at www.ipsos.com/en-uk