Key local election battlegrounds to watch out for
England and Wales go to the polls for the local elections on Thursday May 2 as thousands of councillors face re-election amid predictions of vast Conservative losses.
Millions of people will have the chance to cast at least one ballot, although no elections are taking place in Scotland or Northern Ireland.
Here are some of the key election battlegrounds to watch out for.
Battle for London Mayor
Sadiq Khan is seeking re-election to City Hall as he hopes to achieve a historic third term as Mayor of London.
His main opponent is Susan Hall, the Tory challenger who is running on a platform highlighting crime rates under her opposite number and vowing to reverse his expansion of the capital’s ultra-low emissions zone (Ulez).
Polling throughout the campaign has shown that the Tories face an uphill battle. A survey by Savanta, conducted in the week of April 8, showed Mr Khan led Ms Hall by 24 points, polling at 50 per cent to her 26 per cent.
A YouGov poll published on April 30 had Mr Khan leading Ms Hall by 22 percentage points. But the most recent Savanta poll suggested the right has tightened significantly, giving the Labour incumbent a lead of just 10 points.
Mr Khan has warned against complacency, urging Green and Liberal Democrat supporters to lend him their votes after the London mayoral election system changed to first-past-the-post, which Labour believes will make it easier for their opponents.
He has touted free school meals, record numbers of council homes, the opening of the Elizabeth Line and a freeze in public transport fares as reasons for Londoners to back his campaign.
However, Ms Hall has accused Mr Khan of presiding over “crime [getting] out of control”, and also of wasting millions of pounds of taxpayers’ money during his time in City Hall.
West Midlands mayoral race
Conservative Andy Street has been Mayor of the West Midlands since 2017. However, the most recent opinion polls suggest he will be ousted by Labour challenger Richard Parker on May 2.
Despite his personal popularity in the region, Mr Street is polling at 28 per cent, compared to 42 per cent for his Labour rival, according to Redfield and Wilton Strategies.
Both the West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoral contests will be watched closely as speculation continues to surround Rishi Sunak’s future.
Philip van Scheltinga, director of research at Redfield and Wilton Strategies, said despite Mr Street being a “well-liked” politician the wider Tory brand was now “so damaged… even strong, independently-minded candidates like him are being put in a losing position”.
Mr Street has largely distanced himself from the national party. Asked to express support for Mr Sunak last week, he told The Times: “I don’t even know what you’re getting at. He is the Prime Minister. I am supportive [of] the party.
“But he and I have fallen out over a number of issues — very high profilely (sic) over one of them. But you know what? That is actually quite a good thing.
“It’s quite a mature relationship. This notion that when you’re the mayor you have to be in complete lockstep with your prime minister is for the birds.”
Tees Valley mayoral contest
Lord Houchen, the Conservative mayor for Tees Valley, is also up for re-election and, as with Mr Street, his performance will be watched closely.
How he fares will provide an early indication of Mr Sunak’s ability to cling on to support in the Red Wall, which is made up of dozens of northern and Midlands seats that backed the Tories for the first time in a generation, or in some cases ever, under Boris Johnson in 2019.
Lord Houchen was elected in 2017 and was re-elected in 2021 against the backdrop of the Conservatives enjoying a “vaccines bounce” as pandemic restrictions lifted and northern support for the party remained high.
However, with some national constituency-level polls predicting the Tories may now lose every single Red Wall seat, defeat for the peer could come as a foretaste of a wider Red Wall wipeout in the general election.
Lord Houchen’s ‘Back Ben’ campaign downplays his party affiliations and has the slogan “a record of delivery, a promise of more”.
In an interview with The Telegraph earlier this month, he acknowledged things looked bleak for the Tories on a national level, insisted Mr Sunak “has to make progress” on immigration before the election and admitted nobody in Teesside would be able to name the Prime Minister’s flagship five priorities.
How will the Tories do in the local elections?
The scale of Conservative Party losses may also prove significant, with some analysts predicting the Tories could lose half of the approximately 1,000 councillors they have up for election.
Analysis by election experts Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings suggests the Conservatives could lose as many as 500 seats if they repeat their poor showing at last year’s local elections.
However, Lewis Baston, who has written about elections for more than three decades, noted one-third of the seats were last fought in 2019, 2022 or 2023 because of boundary changes.
This suggests Tory support in those seats is more resilient, having already withstood multiple changes of leadership.
However, just as a better-than-expected showing could bolster Mr Sunak and shift the tone of the discourse surrounding the next general election, the Conservatives managing to underperform could add to speculation about whether the Prime Minister could be replaced before the next national poll.
Blue Wall and Lib Dem swing
Councillors are up for re-election in the constituencies of Dorking and Horley, West Dorset, and Wokingham – three major general election target seats for the Liberal Democrats identified by Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and polling guru.
Despite a swing of just one per cent in the popular vote, Sir Ed Davey’s party gained more than 400 councillors at last year’s local elections following an implosion in Tory fortunes.
His party will be hoping to repeat this success. If the Conservatives were to lose councillors in Wokingham it would be a sign that Sir John Redwood, a veteran MP who was head of the No 10 policy unit under Margaret Thatcher, could be at risk of losing his seat.
Chris Loder, the MP for West Dorset, could also be in trouble despite a majority of more than 14,000 in 2019, while results in Dorking and Horley may suggest wider losses in Surrey that could spell trouble for Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, whose seat is nearby.