Labour almost certainly set to win more seats than 1997 victory, according to poll

Labour Party leader Keir Starmer speaks during a live TV debate, hosted by The BBC, in Nottingham, on June 26, 2024, in the build-up to the UK general election on July 4. (Photo by Phil Noble / POOL / AFP) (Photo by PHIL NOBLE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
-Credit: (Image: PHIL NOBLE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Labour are set to almost certainly set to win more seats than they did in their 1997 victory under Tony Blair.

According to market researchers Survation, Labour will win the 2024 general election with roughly 484 out of the 650 total seats. In 1997, Labour won 418 seats by polling 13 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives. According to the BBC, at the time of writing, they sit 19 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives.

Survation says that the scale of the win is unprecedented and predicts it with 99 per cent certainty in their model and method. The model also forecasts that The Conservative party is almost certain to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election.

READ MORE: 'These are the tell tale signs to watch out for on General Election night in London'

Survation forecast that Labour will win 484 seats
Survation forecast that Labour will win 484 seats, 66 more than they did in 1997 -Credit:Survation

Conservative figures set to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan. Rishi Sunak is set to keep his seat, with a 99 per cent win probability in the Richmond and Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire.

Survation also sees the Reform Party becoming the third most-voted party but only winning a handful of seats and says Sir Ed Davey 'stands a reasonable chance of becoming the first Liberal or Liberal Democrat Leader of the Opposition since Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman' back in 1900 to 1905.

Survation said: “The Conservatives have been under pressure from both the Liberal Democrats and Labour in their heartlands in the South and East of England

“We are projecting many of these ‘blue wall’ seats – defined as constituencies the Conservatives currently hold where a majority are estimated to have voted to Remain in 2016 and the proportion of graduates is above the national average – to change hands on Thursday.

“Of these 52 seats, our estimates suggest the Conservatives will hold just 10.”

Tories are set to have just three MPs in London -Credit:Survation
Tories are set to have just three MPs in London -Credit:Survation

In London, the Tories will be nearly wiped out. The only London seats predicted to vote Tory are:

  • Chelsea and Fulham

  • Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

  • Sutton and Cheam

The following seats are predicted to vote Lib Dem

  • Richmond Park

  • Twickenham

  • Kingston and Surbiton

  • Wimbledon

  • Carshalton and Wallington

The rest are predicted to vote Labour.

The projection has the Conservatives winning 64 seats and the Liberal Democrats winning 61. It has the Scottish National Party winning 10, Reform taking six, Plaid Cymru with three and the Greens with three.

To get their results, Survation uses data from over 30,000 respondents to make seat-level forecasts.

Further information taken from the results shows that both Labour and the Lib Dems will make gains from the Tories. In seta changes, they forecast that Labour will gain 248 seats from the Conservatives, whereas 50 will go to the Lib Dems.

MyLondon has been out on the streets and spoke to residents of one North London constituency that could switch from Tory to Labour for the first time in 50 years.

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