Labour vote share falls to lowest in more than two years

Labour’s vote share has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years ahead of the general election, new polling shows.

Support for the party dropped by four percentage points in the space of a week following Sir Keir Starmer’s final head-to-head debate with Rishi Sunak and increased scrutiny of his policies.

A poll of 2,092 adults by Savanta for The Telegraph, conducted between Wednesday and Thursday, saw the firm record the lowest Labour support since January 2022 as the gap between Labour and the Conservatives dropped to 17 percentage points.

But with a vote share of 38 per cent – compared to the Tories’ 21 per cent and Reform’s 14 per cent – Labour is on course for a majority of more than 260 seats if the current figures are replicated on on Thursday, seat modeller Electoral Calculus predicts.

Such a scenario would leave Labour with 459 seats, the Conservatives 75 and the Liberal Democrats 70. Reform would gain five seats, giving it a total of six, while in Scotland the SNP would be reduced to a rump of 14 MPs.

The scenario suggests Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, Liz Truss, Mr Sunak’s predecessor, and Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons who has been touted as a future Tory leader, would all lose their seats.

The public was evenly split on whether Sir Keir or Mr Sunak won Wednesday’s BBC debate, in which the Prime Minister urged voters not to “surrender” their finances and national security to Labour.

An audience member drew the loudest applause of the night by asking both whether they were “really the best we’ve got”.

Chris Hopkins, the director of political research at Savanta, said: “This is our lowest Labour vote share since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, and the Conservatives for their part do appear to have slowed or stopped their downward spiral.

“However, that’s where the good news ends for the Prime Minister – if this vote share was replicated on polling day, Labour would still likely have a majority of over 200.

“The increase in vote share for the Greens and independent candidates is notable. Not because it will have an impact on this election in any significant way, but could point towards trouble for the Labour Party in government and over the coming years.”

Labour voters deserted the party in their droves for the Green Party or pro-Palestinian candidates at last month’s local elections in a foretaste of the difficulties Sir Keir may face if he enters government at the end of this week.

The polling also found voters expect NHS waiting times and housing to improve under a Labour government. Waiting times are expected to get better by 45 per cent of Britons, while 27 per cent think they will get worse. Forty-three per cent anticipate the housing crisis to ease, and 25 per cent think it will worsen.

However, the public is more split on whether Labour would make the economy better or worse (40 per cent versus 38 per cent), as well as life in general (34 per cent versus 30 per cent) and crime (32 per cent versus 33 per cent).

Mr Sunak is highly likely to lose power on Thursday, bringing 14 years of Tory rule to an end. But the public is split on who should succeed him and, when presented with a list of seven potential future leaders, 26 per cent said they did not know while 20 per cent said “none of these”.

Most popular among all voters was Nigel Farage, who leads Reform UK but has refused to rule out a return to the Conservative Party at some point in the future. This may factor in Labour voters who believe Mr Farage is more beatable than Ms Mordaunt, as suggested by recent head-to-head YouGov surveys.

Seventeen per cent of voters said Mr Farage would be best to succeed Mr Sunak, while 16 per cent opted for Ms Mordaunt, who is fighting for re-election in what is expected to be a close race in Portsmouth North.

She emerged as the firm favourite among those planning to vote Conservative, with 32 per cent saying that she should succeed her former leadership rival. Just 13 per cent opted for Mr Farage, while Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Suella Braverman, Priti Patel and Robert Jenrick all polled in single figures.

Almost half of all voters agreed with Mr Farage’s recent remarks that neither Mr Sunak nor Sir Keir had “got the guts” to stop small boat Channel crossings.

The Savanta poll also found strong public dissatisfaction with Mr Sunak’s handling of the gambling scandal, which continued to grow over the past week.

Sixty-six per cent believed he had shown weak leadership by withdrawing support from two Tory candidates almost a fortnight after the first reports emerged about the alleged gambling, while 80 per cent said politicians should be banned from betting on politics.