What Labour landslide would mean for Birmingham and Black Country

Labour is on course to turn Birmingham and the Black Country red after the exit poll predicted a landslide, with Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister in the morning. The party is on course to take 410 seats, with the Conservatives reduced to 131 seats and the Liberal Democrats on 61. Reform UK have taken a thumping 13 seats, according to the exit poll analysts.

It almost certainly means all local seats lost to the Conservatives at the 2019 election will go back to Labour, including the three Wolverhampton seats of Wolverhampton North East, West and South West. Also set to be in Labour's hands will be West Bromwich, Tipton and Wednesbury, Halesowen, Smethwick, Dudley and Walsall and Bloxwich, based on the exit poll results.

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Birmingham Northfield will definitely fall to Labour after being grabbed by Gary Sambrook in 2019. Andrew Mitchell in the safe Tory seat of Sutton Coldfield may survive but also looks at risk of losing one of the safest seats in the region. But Suzanne Webb in Stourbridge, Rachel Maclean in Redditch and Michael Fabricant in Lichfield are at risk of losing their seats based on the poll, in what will be a catastrophic night for the Conservative Party.

But what the exit poll does not account for is the potential impact of the Independents in Birmingham. By all measures, Labour should be left in control of the entire city, except Sutton Coldfield, but there could yet be a shock result in one of Ladywood, Yardley or Perry Barr, where Independents have launched campaigns that have been focussed on Gaza.

At the Birmingham electoral count at Birmingham ICC the exit poll results were greeted with gasps but in truth they were in line with the most recent polls. YouGov predicted a Labour landslide in its final pre-voting poll yesterday.

It would leave the Labour Party in control of every layer of government in Birmingham. It already runs the city council, the regional mayor is Labour's Richard Parker, and now the party is set to be in government too.

The exit poll is taken throughout the day from a select number of polling stations across the country. Voters are randomly approached and asked who they voted for in the general election.

Read more: General election results live across Birmingham and West Midlands 2024

The current model was created by Professor John Curtice and statisician David Firth and was first introduced in 2005. It is considered highly accurate because the methodology involves asking voters leaving the polling station to fill out a mock ballot paper based on the real one they just completed.

Keep following our coverage through the night as we bring you the results as they come in.