Labour to win at least 64 seats in London in Tory 'wipeout' at general election, three polls show

Labour is on course to win at least 64 seats in London at the general election, according to three new polls.

The More in Common research group analysed recent large scale surveys using the MRP polling method which were carried out by YouGov, Survation and Find Out Now.

It found that all three showed Labour winning in 64 constituencies in the capital, out of 75 seats, at the election which is widely expected to to be in the autumn.

Labour would win in a further three, according to two of the surveys.

The findings show the Tories would win between five and zero seats, with two of the surveys predicting they would hold Hornchurch and Upminster, and Old Bexley and Sidcup.

All three polls showed the Liberal Democrats winning at least five seats, in South West London.

Ed Hodgson, Research Manager at More in Common, said the polls suggested the Conservatives “are facing almost complete wipeout” in London at the next General Election.

He added: "While pollsters take different approaches to modelling the outcomes of different constituencies, there is broad agreement that Labour is on course for close to a clean sweep of seats in London.

“After winning around 20 seats in 2019, there are now only two seats where all the recent MRP models agree that the Tories could hold.”

He added: “Tories will hope that these predictions are the result of a broader realignment of Conservative voters away from large cities and the South and towards towns and the North of England.

“But given that Labour also looks set to win back much of their Northern 'RedWall' heartlands, these predictions of sweeping Labour victories in London and across the south spells real danger for the Conservatives."

The multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling builds up a detailed picture of the voting intentions of different sections of the population and uses them to calculate likely outcomes at constituency level.

The latest MRP poll, by YouGov, suggested the Tories would lose all their seats in London apart from five.

They would be wiped out in the city’s central areas including London minister Greg Hands’ Chelsea and Fulham seat which appears to be their strongest constituency in Inner London with a majority of 11,241.

In Outer London, the Tories would hold onto only Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Orpington, Sutton and Cheam, and Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner.

Nationwide, Labour would win 403 seats, leading to a 154-seat Commons majority, the poll suggested, with the Conservatives having 155 seats, a worse outcome than under John Major in 1997.

However, despite this grim outlook, the YouGov poll was more optimistic for the Tories than one done a few days earlier by Survation which showed the Tories ending up with zero MPs in London.

If this happened, it would mean the Conservatives losing to Labour in Bromley and Chislehurst, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Beckenham, Chipping Barnet, Chingford and Woodford Green, Croydon South, Harrow East, Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidup, Orpington, Romford, Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, Sutton and Cheam, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Professor Tony Travers, of the London School of Economics said the poll showed the Tories risking a “near death experience” in the city.

The Find Out Now survey showed the Tories winning just two seats; Hornchurch and Upminster, and Old Bexley and Sidcup.

The More in Common group seeks to strengthening democratic societies by countering division and polarisation.