Last-minute poll predicts huge Labour general election win with Tories wiped out in the North East

The latest poll from YouGov suggest the Tories could be wiped out in the North East
-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)

The Conservative Party could be wiped out in the North East after tomorrow's general election, according to the latest poll from YouGov.

The pollster's final MRP poll of the campaign predicts that the Tories will not win a single seat in the region, with Labour expected to sweep the board. Only two seats are even considered to be tight races - North Northumberland and Stockton West, where the Tories are "running Labour close".

The poll also shows that Reform UK is in second place in 15 constituencies in the North East. The highest level of support for Nigel Farage's party comes in Hartlepool.

Guy Opperman's seat of Hexham - which has been Conservative for a century and has never been won by Labour - is considered as "likely" to turn red. Neighbouring North Northumberland - where Anne Marie Trevelyan is the incumbent - is branded a "toss-up" between Labour and the Tories.

Seats are classed as "toss-ups" when there are five points or fewer between first and second place, meaning small changes in voter behaviour could see notable changes in results. In North Northumberland, the gap is 33.8% to 30.9%, with Labour just out in the lead.

In Hexham, Labour are polling at 53.3%, compared to the Conservatives on 35.5%. Previous YouGov polls had the Tories holding both of the two Northumberland seats.

In Stockton West - the other North East seat predicted to have a close race - Labour are on 39.1%, while the Tories are on 34.9%.

The Conservatives also face wipeouts in the North West and Wales.

Nationally, YouGov's central estimate puts Labour on 431 seats, with a range of between 391 and 466. The Tories meanwhile are on 102 in the central estimate, with a range between 78 and 129.

Away from the two main parties, Reform look set to win three seats, including Mr Farage in Clacton. The Greens are predicted win two seats, taking Bristol Central from Labour, while the Liberal Democrats are on course to win a record 72 seats.

In Scotland, the SNP are predicted to fall to second place with 18 seats, behind Labour on 32.

YouGov say that even their "best case scenario" result for the Tories is significantly worse than the party's previous heaviest election defeat, when it won 156 seats in 1906. The pollsters are predicting a number of prominent Tories will lose their seats - including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Transport Secretary Mark Harper.

The data has come just hours before the polls open at 7am tomorrow morning. Polling stations will close at 10pm, when the counts will then begin.

A relatively new technique, MRP stands for Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification. It is used by polling outlets to estimate public opinion at a local level from large, national samples and is considered more accurate than conventional polling, which apply a uniform national "swing" to predict the number of seats.

In the 2017 General Election, YouGov's MRP poll called 93% of seats correctly. In 2019, the MRP predicted a clear majority for the Tories - but did underestimate the scale of it.