Latest DWP State Pension forecast sees payments boosted to £938 for 3.2 million from April

Linda Howard & William Morgan
·3-min read

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that UK inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly three years in May. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate dropped to 2.0 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent in April.

This is the lowest level since July 2021 when inflation was also recorded at this rate, which aligns with the Bank of England's target level. While this is good news for people at the supermarket checkout, for the almost 13 million State Pensioners across Britain, it could mean a smaller increase in payments next year.

Under the Triple Lock policy - a commitment both the Conservatives and Labour Party have pledged to uphold for the next five years - the New and Basic State Pensions increase each year. This increase aligns with whichever is the highest of average annual earnings growth from May to July, CPI in the year to September or 2.5 per cent, reports the Daily Record.

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In addition to this annual raise, many pensioners on low incomes can get extra assistance to boost their money to a minimum level If your weekly income is less than £260.68, if you're single, or £380.55, if you're part of a couple, you could qualify for Pension Credit - this works out as an annual income of £13555 or £19788 respectively.

Predictions for State Pension uprating for 2025/26

The New and Basic State Pensions increased by 8.5 per cent in April - the earnings growth measure of the Triple Lock. This means someone on the full New State Pension receives £221.20 every week, or £884.80 every four-week pay period during the 2024/25 financial year.

Those on the full Basic State Pension receive £169.50 each week, or £678 every four-week pay period. There are 3.2 million pensioners currently receiving the higher New State Pension, though not all get the highest amount.

The latest ONS figures show the annual growth for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 6.0 per cent in February to April 2024. Annual growth in employees’ average total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.9 per cent in February to April 2024.

If the earnings growth measure for May to July remains at 6.0 per cent (excluding bonuses), it will almost certainly be the determining factor for the State Pension uprating in April 2025.

This could see those on the full New State Pension receive an extra £13.25 each week, some £53 per 4-week pay period.

Similarly, someone on the full Basic State Pension would get an additional £10.15 per week, some £40.60 every four-week pay period.

A 6.0 per cent increase on the current State Pension would see people receive:

  • Full New State Pension - £234.45 each week, £937.80 every 4-week pay period, £12,191.40 over the 2025/26 financial year

  • Full Basic State Pension - £179.65 each week, £718.60 every 4-week pay period, £9,341.80 over the 2025/26 financial year

Remember, these figures are just calculations based on the current figures. The one to watch out for is the May to July earnings growth figure which will be published by the ONS on August 13.

It's also important to be aware that additional State Pension payments and deferred State Pensions rise each year under the CPI for September. The government typically confirms the annual uprating during the Autumn Statement in November.

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