Latest General Election 2024 MRP projections for Cambridgeshire constituencies

The country will head to the polls on July 4
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The Conservative Party could hold just two of the eight constituencies in Cambridgeshire following the 2024 General Election - a projection suggests. Pollsters WeThink have released their first multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) ahead of the election on July 4.

A total of 650 MP positions are up for election across the UK - with each constituency returning one Member of Parliament. In Cambridgeshire a total of 55 candidates are contesting across eight constituencies.

According to the WeThink projections, Labour could end up with five of the eight seats in the county when the votes are counted. The Conservative Party would take two and the Liberal Democrats would have one - however some of these contests are very close.

Read More: The 55 UK 2024 General Election candidates hoping to become Cambridgeshire MPs

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MRP polling is of course just an estimate and not a prediction. These polls do not always take into account factors including the popularity (or not) of local party candidates and strong independent candidates as well as other local matters.

A poll also does not mean something is a certainty - factors including voter turnout could play a role in the final outcome. Political parties advocate that people need to go out and vote - whether at the ballot box or via postal or proxy voting - to ensure they get their voice heard and to contribute to result they want in their constituency.

Ultimately the final result will only be determined when every vote is counted and the winners are declared in each constituency - with counts taking place overnight on Thursday July 4 and into the early hours of Friday, July 5.

Poll methodologies and disclaimer

The WeThink Poll contacted 18,595 British adults between May 30 and June 21. Obviously this means the results are projected across the UK and these are not polls carried out in each constituency.

As previously mentioned, this means factors such as strong independent candidates or controversies/popularity of particular party candidates within their constituency are not factored into the equations. Polls ahead of election day should always be seen as projections and not results.

For each constituency we have also included the MRP suggestions from an IPSOS poll published on Tuesday, June 18. You can see the full projections for Cambridgeshire on that one here (keep in mind different polling firms use different methodologies and may not be directly comparable).


The WeThink poll for Cambridge predicts a Labour hold in the constituency, with the poll expecting the party will get around 40 per cent of the vote. However this would be a close run thing if the poll was correct, with the Liberal Democrats estimated to get 36.2 per cent.

The Green Party would get the third highest vote in the city according to the poll, with 11.2 per cent of the vote. The Tories would come in fourth at 10.9 per cent.

Reform UK is not fielding a candidate in Cambridge. Other smaller parties and independent candidates would get 1.2 per cent of the vote according to the WeThink poll.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Labour hold)

Full list of Cambridge candidates here.

South Cambridgeshire:

The WeThink poll suggests a fairly solid win for the Liberal Democrats in the South Cambridgeshire constituency. Ed Davey's Party would pick up 45.6 per cent of the vote according to the poll. The Conservatives would drop their vote considerably but remain second, at 25.1 per cent of the vote.

Labour would scoop just under 20 per cent of the vote according to the estimates. Reform UK and the Greens would receive 6.1 and 2.7 per cent respectively and others would receive below 0.8 per cent.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Likely Liberal Democrats)

Full list of South Cambridgeshire candidates here

St Neots and Mid-Cambridgeshire:

If the WeThink poll is right, the new St Neots and Mid-Cambridgeshire constituency could prove to be a close run thing. The MRP poll gives Labour just over 30 per cent of the vote, just ahead of 28.3 per cent for the Conservative Party and 22.2 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

The MRP poll suggests Reform UK would receive just over 14 per cent of the vote. The Green Party would get 3.8 per cent and others would get 0.9 per cent.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Too close to call between Conservatives and Labour)

Full list of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire candidates here


Perhaps one of the WeThink MRP's most surprising suggestions is a solid Labour win in Huntingdon. The constituency has been a Conservative safe seat since it was created in 1982 - and was the former seat of Tory Prime Minister John Major.

The poll puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 29.3 per cent. It places the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent, Reform UK on 9.7 per cent, The Greens on 1.2 per cent and others on 1.3 per cent.

(IPSOS MRP last week: To close to call between Conservatives and Labour)

Full list of Huntingdon candidates here


WeThink is projecting a strong Labour win in Peterborough, with the polling firm suggesting the party could scoop 42 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the 23.7 per cent expected for the Conservatives.

Reform is projected to come third at 12.4 per cent, followed by the Greens on 8.2 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on just four per cent. Other candidates would gain around 9.7 per cent of the vote.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Strong Labour win)

Full list of Peterborough candidates here

North West Cambridgeshire:

If what the voters have to say on election day matches with what WeThink predicts, then North West Cambridgeshire could be set to be a Labour gain, with Keir Starmer's party getting more than 38 per cent of the vote according to the projection.

This would be well above the 29.6 per cent for the Conservatives, 12.6 per cent for Reform UK, 8.7 per cent for the Liberal Democrats and 7.4 per cent for the Green Party.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Toss up between Conservatives and Labour)

Full list of North West Cambridgeshire candidates here

North East Cambridgeshire:

WeThink is projecting a Tory hold in North East Cambridgeshire. The Conservatives would get 37.7 per cent of the vote in the constituency according to the MRP - well above Labour on 28.3 and Reform UK on 19.7.

The projection has the Liberal Democrats on 5.9 per cent and the Greens slightly higher on 6.7. Other candidates make up 1.6 per cent.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Lean Conservative)

Full list of North East Cambridgeshire candidates here

Ely and East Cambridgeshire:

If the MRP projection for Ely and East Cambridgeshire is accurate, it would represent another hold for the Conservative Party in the county - although it would be close. WeThink suggests 31 per cent of the vote could go to the Tories in the constituency.

WeThink has the Liberal Democrats on 25.6 per cent and Labour on 23 per cent. It projects Reform UK could get 15.2 per cent of the vote, with another four per cent for the Green Party and 1.1 per cent for other candidates.

(IPSOS MRP last week: Lean Conservative)

Full list of Ely and East Cambridgeshire candidates here