What the latest polls mean for Wales as history beckons at Thursday's general election

electoral map
-Credit: (Image: Election Maps UK)

Polling suggests the Tories could be completely wiped out in Wales at the general election.

The data was collaged by Election Maps UK using its Nowcast model and is based on the most recent published poll from British Polling Council members with polls weighted by recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.

It suggests that the Conservatives would lose all of their Welsh seats including Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr which was considered their safest until the incumbent Tory, Craig Williams, became embroiled in the betting scandal.

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electoral map
How the electoral map of the UK will look based on this poll -Credit: Election Maps UK

According to Election Maps UK, a Labour majority of 256 is forecast. The results would look like this:

  • LAB: 453 (+253) - 40.9%

  • CON: 81 (-291) - 21.0%

  • LDM: 69 (+61) - 11.5%

  • SNP: 17 (-31) - 2.9%

  • GRN: 4 (+3) - 6.1%

  • PLC: 4 (+2) - 0.6%

  • RFM: 3 (+3) - 15.9%

  • Others: 0 (=) - 1.1%

If this poll was to translate into the general election it would mean two Welsh MP members of the cabinet would lose their seats - Secretary of State for Wales David TC Davies and Chief Whip Simon Hart.

Plaid Cymru are forecast to win Ynys Mon and Carmarthenshire, taking their seats total to four. The Liberal Democrats are forecast to win a solitary seat in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, a seat where they have historically battled with the Tories. This would leave Labour with the 27 other Welsh seats.

Realistically, no other parties have a chance of winning in Wales in this election. Parties like the Greens have said they are more focussed on securing seats at the upcoming Senedd election in 2026.