What the latest Welsh political poll show about the state of the parties as Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister

Vaughan Gething, First Minister of Wales, faces First Minister's Questions in the Senedd chamber
Vaughan Gething, First Minister of Wales, faces First Minister's Questions in the Senedd chamber -Credit:Matt Horwood/Senedd

Labour has seen a nine percentage point drop in support in Wales in the last month according to a new poll. However the party still has twice as much support as any other party in Wales with a double digit lead over the Conservatives.

In a poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, when asked who people intended to vote for in the next General Election, the results found Labour are leading the Conservatives in Wales by 22 percentage points, eleven points less than in a previous poll published last month.

In a statement the polling company said: "At 40%, Labour falls to its lowest share of the vote share in our Welsh polling. Conversely, with 18% in our poll, Reform UK achieves its highest share of the vote in our Welsh polling and is now tied with the Conservatives in second place in Wales. With 14%, Plaid Cymru also achieves their highest percentage in our polling.

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Altogether, the results (with changes from 23-24 March in parentheses) are as follows:

  • Labour 40% (-9)

  • Conservatives 18% (+2)

  • Reform UK 18% (+3)

  • Plaid Cymru 14% (+4)

  • Liberal Democrat 6% (+1)

  • Green 4% (-1)

  • Other 0% (-1)

The Labour Party in Wales has been in turmoil after First Minister and Welsh Labour leader Vaughan Gething accepted a controversial donation of £200,000 to his campaign to be leader. The donation came from a company convicted of environmental crimes and it has since come to light that they received a £400,000 loan from the Development Bank of Wales. At the time they received the loan Mr Gething was the economy minister and therefore ultimately responsible for the bank.

There is currently deep disharmony among some Labour MSs who supported Mr Gething's rival Jeremy Miles and the issue has cut through with the Welsh public. A poll last month by Redfield and Wilton about Wales found two thirds of people questioned thought he should return the £200,000.

Though the fall in Labour support corresponds to Mr Gething taking office there are mixed signals as to what is driving the fall. Not least because the same fall wasn't seen when it came to Senedd voting intentions.

The next Welsh Senedd Election is not due to be held until May 2026. Nevertheless, when voters are asked how they would vote if a Senedd Election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party leads in both constituency and regional list voting intention polls by the same margins as last month.

Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, has overtaken the Conservatives to move into second place in our Constituency Voting Intention poll for the first time.

Altogether the results of the Senedd Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 23-24 March in parentheses) are as follows:

  • Labour 37% (+1)

  • Plaid Cymru 22% (+1)

  • Conservative 21% (–)

  • Reform UK 10% (-1)

  • Liberal Democrat 4% (+1)

  • Green 3% (–)

  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly 3% (–)

  • Other 0% (-1)

Mr Gething, holds a net approval rating of +10%. Among other party leaders in the Senedd, the Conservatives leader, Andrew RT Davies, holds a net approval rating of -6%, while Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, holds a net approval rating this month of +13%.