Leeds United's over-reliance problem as karma hits amid Leicester City kick in the teeth

Ironically, Leicester City’s loss made Leeds United’s draw feel even worse. Yes, the Whites ended the day closer to the Foxes than they started it and, yes, they put themselves back into the top two, but it was impossible not to feel like this was a massive opportunity missed.

Much like Ipswich Town on Saturday, Enzo Maresca’s side had held the door open for the Whites, but Daniel Farke’s men, for the second time in three days, failed to walk through. Drawing with mid-table, meandering Sunderland was bad enough, but those two dropped points are harder to swallow when you know what an instant difference they could have made.

Had United followed the bookmakers’ odds and kept the three points at Elland Road, their promotion fate would not be back in their own hands, but it would have turned the screw on their rivals. Only wins from their games in hand would put Leicester and Ipswich back above the Whites, whereas the former can now lose and the latter can draw, but each be ahead of Leeds.

READ MORE: Leeds United player ratings with Bamford, James and Rutter poor in dire Sunderland draw

If you really want to wallow in the pain, you can imagine Leeds took all six points from their last two games, as would have been eminently believable before the international break. That would have had Leeds atop the Championship by four points from Leicester, entirely negating the threat of their game in hand.

The reality is Leeds are spluttering and have not looked themselves for four matches now. The international break remains the obvious factor that has changed the rhythm and flow of Farke’s side.

Even in the three matches they have not lost since reuniting, there were long spells they looked some way off their best. At Watford, a disjointed and undercooked United didn’t look dangerous until the final 20 minutes.

Against Hull, a decent start gave way to a 79-minute wait for a second goal that came from the penalty spot. Then last night there wasn’t a single meaningful shot on target for Anthony Patterson to save.

Farke tried to find reassurance in the way his Norwich City side finished the 2018/19 campaign, his first title at Carrow Road. The Canaries finished with four draws and two wins in their last six games, but still lifted the trophy despite limping over the line somewhat.

The big difference then was Norwich were already seven points clear of second-placed Sheffield United with six games to play. The more salient point about 2019 may be that his Norwich side would have only been fourth at the 40-game mark in this current season with their 84-point tally.

The bar is extraordinarily high and unfortunately one of the best teams in Championship history is going to be forced into the play-offs.

Late subs run out of time

Once again, the timing of Farke’s substitutes drew criticism from some quarters. In a game where the plan was not generating the danger anyone wanted to see, the German waited until the 72nd minute to change his personnel.

Connor Roberts and Wilfried Gnonto are known to be managing their comebacks from injury, so later introductions are understandable, but Joel Piroe, Jaidon Anthony and Mateo Joseph are all options capable of turning games at this level. To ignore Anthony entirely and wait until the 82nd minute for the other two was expecting a lot of starters who were not even close to finding answers on Tuesday night.

The Whites have one of the best squads in the division, as numerous opposition bosses remind us, but there has been a reluctance from Farke to go to the well until it’s late on many occasions this season. On Easter Monday, Joseph arrived in the 72nd minute, but Piroe had only a handful of minutes with the match still level at 1-1.

On Good Friday, Junior Firpo’s 64th-minute arrival changed the flow of things, but, again, Joseph and Anthony did not emerge until the 84th minute, with Leeds still trailing at that stage. On Saturday, while Leeds lost the game, it felt like the subs, made earlier than usual, did have an influence on the game.

Roberts brought fresh impetus with a full 45 minutes to find his rhythm, while Piroe would come on in the 66th minute, score and then have time to even get a better chance at the death he should have finished. In a season of huge success and a calendar year of almost unparalleled success, there are not many sticks to beat Farke with, but his late substitutions are making one.

Awful officiating and painful karma

Mike Dodds reminded us all in his post-match press conference, but swings and roundabouts is often the way many managers see good and bad refereeing decisions across a campaign. It all evens out across 46 games, as they say.

It’s unlikely many spectators of a Leeds persuasion were ready to be reminded about Patrick Bamford’s handball goal against Rotherham United as Luke O’Nien shook the pain out of his knuckles last night. In one of the most blatant handballs this correspondent can remember at Elland Road, it was staggering to see Tim Robinson ignore the away captain’s upwardly extended arm as he punched the ball away from Joe Rodon’s head.

It’s hard to say much else about that, or the one in the first half from Dan Ballard as he leant on Crysencio Summerville’s goal-bound first-half shot. We all saw them, Robinson would claim he didn’t and everyone has to move on. Leeds would have probably beaten Rotherham without Bamford’s handling, but that is an eye for an eye.

Is Summerville carrying this attack?

One of the symptoms of these incongruous performances since the break has been a growing reliance on Summerville. It seems as if nobody other than the Dutchman has the answers in the final third.

While it is understandable for a team to want to use its best asset as frequently as possible, there seems to be nobody else raising their game when the going gets tough. Too often, the well of ideas runs dry and the team defaults to feeding the number 10 and waiting to see what he can do on his own.

At Watford, he lit up a drab first half with one of his best goals in Leeds white before he, again, was the chief architect in Joseph’s equaliser and Anthony’s late chance to win it. Against Hull, it was Summerville who dropped his shoulder to win the penalty at the death after 79 minutes of little else hurting the Tigers.

At Coventry, Farke even admitted the team was too focused on feeding the left flank at every opportunity, which was especially ineffective with Summerville off the boil and frustrated. He improved after the break and again became the first player to awaken the attack with his goal-bound strike cleared off the line.

In arguably the meekest team performance of the four, last night, Summerville provided the only semblance of a spark in the final third, but even he was nullified and smothered by Sunderland. This trend has not been mirrored anywhere else in the season.

The goals and assists show every forward with decent exposure has contributed in this system, but as the three starters alongside Summerville since the break, Daniel James, Bamford and Georginio Rutter are not doing anywhere near enough to support him at present.

Does Saturday bring changes and freshness?

Possibly, but not probably. Last night’s match seemed an opportune moment to rotate a few players. Glen Kamara has not taken a match by the scruff of the neck in a while and played through illness last week.

Meanwhile, Sam Byram had a complete rest and could have released Archie Gray’s creativity into midfield alongside Ilia Gruev. Gnonto may not have been ready to start, but could Anthony have been trusted on the right to take the strain off James for an hour?

It’s still only one defeat in the last 17 league games, but one win in the last four and the form since that break in the schedule must prompt some concerns for the manager. Going with the same XI on Saturday and coming away with anything less than three points is unlikely to wash too well on the terraces.