A-level and GCSE results will be lower this year, warns exam watchdog

This year’s GCSE and A-level results will be lower, the body which regulates qualifications in Wales has warned. This summer’s exams returned in full to pre-pandemic conditions meaning candidates have not had forewarning about topics or any other help to mitigate for Covid “lost learning”.

Exams have not been held under “normal” conditions since 2019 leading to what some have seen as “grade inflation" with record high results posted. Summer exams were cancelled in 2020 and 2021 with candidates receiving results based on teacher assessments to take into account Covid disruption and classroom closures.

In 2022 exams returned for the first time in three years while in 2023 there were again exams but with extra support provided. This included some advance information on content that candidates would be asked about and a supportive grading approach.

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Kerry Davies, head of general qualifications monitoring and standards at Qualifications Wales, said people should expect to see lower results this year. She said the regulator expects GCSEs, A-levels, and vocational qualification results to be broadly similar to those pre-pandemic.

“Over the last couple of years we have taken a gradual approach to returning to pre-pandemic arrangements. At each point we’ve considered the needs of learners alongside our responsibility to maintain confidence in the Welsh qualifications system. We believe this is important to safeguard the long-term value of learners’ grades,” she said.

But she warned: “It’s important that everyone has a clear and shared understanding about the value of learners’ grades and that’s why it’s vital we continue our journey to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements... Overall we expect that national results this summer are likely to be lower than they were in 2023.” Join our WhatsApp news community here for the latest breaking news.

Exams have already returned to pre-pandemic conditions in England, which saw results plunge there last year. In Wales the regulator will be keen to avoid the huge row in summer 2020 when an algorithm in place of cancelled exams led to thousands of results being downgraded, which in turn led to those being ditched in place of teacher-assessed grades. Qualifications Wales is launching a survey at the start of next month to get feedback on how the exam system has worked this year.

What to expect from exams and assessments this summer

As candidates do their final preparations for exams and assessments Ms Davies explained what to expect.. She said: "Next week the annual summer exam and assessment series will begin where learners will once again get the chance to show what they know and can do and then receive grades that will support them as they embark on their future plans.

"This year is slightly different though because it’s the first summer series, for quite a while, where we expect results for both general (such as GCSEs and A-levels) and vocational qualifications to be broadly similar to pre-pandemic outcomes. Learners are at the heart of our decisions so over the last couple of years we have taken a gradual approach to returning to pre-pandemic arrangements. At each point we’ve considered the needs of learners alongside our responsibility to maintain confidence in the Welsh qualifications system. We believe this is important to safeguard the long-term value of learners’ grades.

"Exams and assessments provide an equal footing for learners who will sit them at the same time and under the same conditions as their peers across the nation. Their papers will have been developed and approved by a range of subject and examining experts and they’ll be marked by examiners who don’t know their names, place of study, or even where they come from in the country.

"A sense of fairness gives learners confidence in their grades as well as ensuring that results have the same value regardless of where in Wales, or even elsewhere in the UK, the assessments were sat. This in turn builds trust in Welsh qualifications and helps learners to make informed decisions about their future.

"Qualifications reward learners’ hard work and colleges, employers, training providers, and higher education all use qualifications to support learners in their choices as they prepare for further education, training, or employment. It’s important that everyone has a clear and shared understanding about the value of learners’ grades and that’s why it’s vital we continue our journey to pre-pandemic assessment arrangements.

"Each year we oversee WJEC’s preparations for the awarding process. This is where senior examiners and subject experts consider learners’ performance in an individual subject. It’s where grade boundaries are set, which determine how many marks you need to reach a certain grade. We have particular requirements for WJEC as they deliver most of the general qualifications that learners in Wales take.

"Grade boundaries are not fixed year on year and there is no set quota for grades. Instead grade boundaries can change to accommodate factors such as the level of demand of a particular exam paper.

"For general qualifications this year we’ll closely monitor WJEC as they determine grade boundaries. We know that the pandemic has had a long-term impact on learning for some so there will be some protection to avoid results in individual subjects being well below pre-pandemic years to provide a safety net if necessary. Overall we expect that national results this summer are likely to be lower than they were in 2023.

"To inform our monitoring of this summer’s exams and provide information that we can use in future exam series we want to hear what learners, teachers, and lecturers think of the exams and assessments this summer. At the start of May we’ll launch a survey to gather feedback.

"We’ve worked closely with other regulators in the UK to align our approach to vocational qualifications, many of which are taken by learners in England and Northern Ireland. Ofqual, the regulator in England, has developed an information hub to support schools and colleges find key dates from all vocational awarding bodies in one place. Additional checks will also make sure that learners expecting a result in summer 2024 will receive their results on or before the equivalent GCSE or A-level results day to support their progression.

"Whether learners are taking general qualifications, vocational qualifications, or both there is a range of further support available. Schools and colleges are always the first point of contact for any questions. Awarding bodies also offer a range of support and resources and the Welsh Government provide the ‘Power Up’ content hub. At Qualifications Wales we keep our website up to date with the latest information and have designed a learner guide with key information for learners in Wales.."