Macron's world standing damaged by vote turmoil: analysts

Whatever the outcome of France's parliamentary elections, President Emmanuel Macron's influence on the world stage risks being damaged, potentially undermining efforts to unify Western defence policy, analysts say.

France votes Sunday in the decisive final round of the snap legislative polls Macron called after his camp received a drubbing in European polls last month, opening the prospect of the far right taking power for the first time since the occupation by Nazi Germany.

Macron will be watched closely when Western alliance NATO meets next week from July 9-11 in Washington, with members expected to agree on a greater role in coordinating arms deliveries to Kyiv, and demanding long-term pledges from members.

Macron's high-profile role in the response to Russia's war against Ukraine has been seen as crucial, not least as Europe braces for a possible US policy switch should the White House go to Donald Trump after November elections.

But the French president, who has taken an increasingly assertive stance against Russian President Vladimir Putin and not ruled out sending French troops to Ukraine, may soon no longer have the domestic political authority to help further his pro-Ukraine agenda.

His approach of uncompromising support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not shared by the French far-right National Rally (RN).

Its leader Jordan Bardella opposes sending troops or longer-range missiles to Ukraine while insisting he won't allow "Russian imperialism" to absorb the country.

Three-time RN presidential candidate Marine Le Pen also sparked a furore by casting doubt on Macron's capacity to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces if the RN won, saying the function was "honorific".

If the RN wins an absolute majority, 28-year-old Bardella would become prime minister despite having no past experience in foreign policy.

It would be a stark turnaround for Macron, who just a month earlier on June 6 hosted world leaders including Zelensky and US President Joe Biden to mark 80 years since D-Day in World War II.

"The president's authority, already very much shaken by the decision to dissolve the National Assembly, will be further diminished by these poor results," said Yann Wernert, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, a think tank on European policy.

"On the European political stage, his voice is losing much of its impact," he said.

- 'Mass distraction' -

But even if the runoff results in a hung parliament, ensuing political paralysis would amount to what Francois Heisbourg, at the FRS Strategic Research Foundation, called "a weapon of mass distraction".

Macron would be absorbed by domestic politics while almost certainly preparing for fresh elections a year from now, the soonest they could be held under constitutional rules.

The result, Heisbourg predicted, would be a "downgrading" of France's influence abroad, at least in the medium term.

"France would clearly be absent during that time", he said. "It wouldn't be the engine in the organisation of European security policies, and would make no weighty contribution to the European response to November elections in the United States".

Ever since Brexit and the departure from power of German chancellor Angela Merkel, Macron has been seen by many as Europe's figurehead and the sole leader with a bold vision for its future.

But a degree of confusion about French policy would become unavoidable with the president, the prime minister, and the speakers of the National Assembly and the Senate all potentially pulling in different directions, analysts predicted.

"There will be uncertainty on how to read" French foreign policy, said Thomas Gassilloud, an outgoing French MP.

"Our allies will wonder to what extent France can remain committed to its policies over the long term," he said.

Jean-Marie Guehenno, a French diplomat who served as the UN's Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, said on X "there was only one certainty" after Macron's election debacle.

"Even if the RN is deprived of an absolute majority, France will be severely weakened at a time when it needs to be strong" in the face of challenges which he said included "Russia, Trump, China, climate change and the technology gap".

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