Ukraine’s war needs to be sustainable even if Trump is elected. It’s being sorted

It took six months of intensive politicking for US president Joe Biden and his allies from the Democratic Party to pressure Mike Johnson, the Republican speaker of the US House of Representatives, to buck disgraced ex-president Donald Trump and other pro-Russia Republicans and put US aid to Ukraine to a vote.

The $61 billion in aid passed with a big majority of votes, replenishing the funding that Biden taps to buy new weapons for Ukraine and also to replace older weapons the Pentagon donates to Ukraine directly from its own stockpiles.

One of the first things Biden spent that fresh funding on is a long-term project to make Ukraine more militarily self-sufficient. Think of it as Trump-proofing the Ukrainian war effort, just in case Trump manages to wriggle out of his legal woes and win the presidential election in November.

Trump has said that, if re-elected, he would let Russians do “whatever the Hell they want” to any Nato nation which did not pay its share toward the alliance’s defences. It should go without saying Trump probably wouldn’t sign legislation approving additional US aid to Ukraine in 2025 – assuming Congress would even try passing Ukraine aid under a second Trump presidency.

So Biden and other allies of a free and democratic Ukraine are making investments now that could, eventually, free Ukraine of its dependence on American-manufactured weapons. The goal: to set up Ukrainian factories to produce critical munitions – some of which, at present, are solely made in America.

Drones are one priority. A $6-billion aid package the White House announced on April 26 includes “components to support Ukrainian production of [unmanned aerial systems] and other capabilities.”

To be clear, Ukraine already produces many drones on its own. But it does so at tiny workshops spread all over the country, each largely independent of the others. While a disaggregated industry is resilient – it’s impossible for Russia to knock out Ukrainian drone production with one intensive missile barrage targeting a single factory – that disaggregation also comes with inefficiencies.

A garage workshop might be appropriate for assembling two-pound quadcopter drones – the kind Ukrainian troops hurl at attacking Russians at a rate of 100,000 per month – but nobody’s making large numbers of stealthy, long-range attack drones in their garage. American investment – money, parts and blueprints – could help bigger Ukrainian factories produce greater numbers of larger drones.

The Americans are also helping the Ukrainians produce their own artillery shells – and in the right caliber. Ukrainian industry was already capable of manufacturing shells in Soviet calibers – 122 millimeters and 152 millimeters – but as the war ground on, Ukrainian brigades began swapping ex-Soviet guns for newer Nato guns. And they all fire 155-millimeter shells.

Ukraine needs millions of 155-millimeter shells a year just to keep pace with Russia’s own artillery. At present, Ukraine gets every single one of these shells from a foreign manufacturer. That’s about to change, however.

Back in December, US and Ukrainian officials signed an agreement facilitating joint production of 155-millimeter shells. According to Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s minister of strategic industries, two American firms will collaborate with Ukrainian industry to manufacture the 100-pound shells.

Production of artillery shells is delicate, precision work requiring expensive machinery that only a few countries make – as well as steady supplies of high-quality metals and, perhaps most importantly, explosives. So Ukrainian production of Nato-pattern shells won’t happen fast, even with steady support from American companies.

“There are long-term solutions,” Kamyshin said, “but they are very important for us.”

Ukraine’s other most vexing military need – air-defense missiles – could prove more difficult to localize. With American support, Ukraine should begin producing high-tech drones and 155-millimeter shells within the next year. But there’s no plan to set up Ukrainian factories to produce the best American surface-to-air missiles, such as the Patriot and AIM-120.

But the Americans have found a next-best solution: licensing the Patriot for production in Europe, so that Ukraine’s European allies can donate or sell the missiles to Ukraine even if the United States, under Trump, ends its support for the Ukrainian war effort.

Ukraine has four Patriot batteries defending the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa among other strategic locations. The batteries have fired scores if not hundreds of missiles, which is a problem. At present, just one factory – a Lockheed Martin plant in Arkansas – manufactures Patriot missiles, at a rate of 550 a year.

To Trump-proof Patriot production, the Biden administration has approved a European consortium – anchored by missile-maker MBDA and assisted by Raytheon in the United States – to produce Patriot missiles at European factories, primarily in Germany. Nato is formulating a $6-billion plan to produce an initial 1,000 missiles, many of which could end up in Ukraine.

It’s not as beneficial to Ukraine as strictly local production would be, but it’s more expedient for a munition as complex as an air-defense missile.

Between drones, shells and missiles, the Biden administration is setting up Ukraine to eventually acquire many of its most important weapons without requiring much, if any, direct support from the US government.

It’s safe to assume many Ukrainian leaders are hoping Trump doesn’t return to power. But if he does, Ukraine won’t suddenly find itself powerless to resist Russian attacks.