Martin Lewis explains the upcoming energy bills changes in the simplest possible way

The financial expert said there was at least a 50% chance that energy bills would not go up to £3000 in April.

Martin Lewis has broken down impending changes to people's energy bills for those who remain confused - while warning that there is a "better than 50% chance" they will not increase for millions of people in April.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Friday, the founder of, explained people could see a 20% hike in their bills if the government does not U-turn on its plan to raise the Energy Price Guarantee.

"If there's no U-turn you will pay 20% more than you do now. If there is a U-turn you'll pay exactly the same as you do now," he said.

Explaining what's going on, he added: "There are two levels of pricing - you have the "price cap" which is set by Ofgem (the regulator), based on wholesale prices and that sets what energy retailers can charge.

"Then you have the "price guarantee", which is if the price cap is too high this is what you'll pay and the government pays the difference."

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, gives Autumn Statement at the House of Commons in London, Britain, November 17, 2022. UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. MANDATORY CREDIT. IMAGE MUST NOT BE ALTERED.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, is thought to be on the cusp of announcing a U-turn over plans to raise the Energy Price Guarantee.(UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via Reuters)

"At the moment the price cap, the Ofgem one, is higher than the price guarantee - so we pay the price guarantee. All the predictions are from July onwards the price cap will be lower than the government's price guarantee, so we will pay the price cap there won't be any more subsidy.

"In practical terms the current prediction is in April it will either go up 20% or not go up."

It was reported on Friday that the chancellor is poised to extend the government's £2,500 energy guarantee - which had been due to increase to £3,000 in April - by another three months.

Lewis said he had written to chancellor Jeremy Hunt several weeks ago to urge him to postpone a proposed rise until July amid the cost of living crisis'

Energy price cap: default tariff
Energy price cap: default tariff

"I wouldn't say it's a done deal. I wrote a letter to the chancellor three weeks ago ... saying don't do this its not good for individuals to put prices up, it's not good for people's mental health, it's not good for consumer confidence which means it's bad for business," he said. "It would also keep the inflation rate down if we don't put prices up - it's a bit of a no brainer."

The government's pledge to cap energy bills at £2,500 is set to end in April and would be raised to £3,000, but it is widely believed that Hunt is set to announce a plan to keep the cap in place.

The financial journalist said he understood that pre-payment providers were maintaining the current rate, suggesting a rise in the price guarantee was unlikely, while Treasury sources told The Guardian suppliers had been asked to prepare rates for either scenario.