Massive poll predicts winner of every Scottish seat at General Election – full list
A MASSIVE new poll has predicted the results of every seat in Britain at the next General Election.
The YouGov survey of more than 18,000 people found that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party would be in for a landslide election victory similar to that won by Tony Blair in 1997.
The Tories are predicted to face a dire result, returning just 155 MPs, according to the poll.
The poll further predicted that, in Scotland, the SNP are not set to win a majority of seats and will trail behind Labour.
For Scotland, the YouGov survey predicted:
The SNP would win 19 seats
Labour would win 28 Scottish seats
The Tories would win five Scottish seats
The LibDems would also return five MPs
In the next General Election, Scotland will return 57 MPs – not 59 – due to boundary changes.
The YouGov analysis uses the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling.
The results of every Scottish seat, as predicted by the YouGov MRP survey, are:
Aberdeen North – SNP hold
Aberdeen South – SNP hold
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – Conservative hold
Airdrie and Shotts – Labour gain from SNP
Alloa and Grangemouth – SNP hold
Angus and Perthshire Glens – SNP hold
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – SNP hold
Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber – SNP hold
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – Labour gain from SNP
Bathgate and Linlithgow – Labour gain from SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Conservative hold
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – LibDem gain from SNP
Central Ayrshire – SNP hold
Coatbridge and Bellshill – Labour gain from SNP
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy – Labour gain from SNP
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch – Labour gain from SNP
Dumfries and Galloway – Conservative hold
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Conservative hold
Dundee Central – SNP hold
Dunfermline and Dollar – Labour gain from SNP
East Kilbride and Strathaven – Labour gain from SNP
East Renfrewshire – Labour gain from SNP
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh – Labour gain from SNP
Edinburgh North and Leith – Labour gain from SNP
Edinburgh South – Labour hold
Edinburgh South West – SNP hold
Edinburgh West – LibDem hold
Falkirk – SNP hold
Glasgow East – Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow North – Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow North East – Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow South – SNP hold
Glasgow South West – Labour gain from SNP
Glasgow West – SNP hold
Glenrothes and Mid Fife – Labour gain from SNP
Gordon and Buchan – Conservative hold
Hamilton and Clyde Valley – Labour gain from SNP
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West – Labour gain from SNP
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire – SNP hold
Kilmarnock and Loudoun – Labour gain from SNP
Livingston – Labour gain from SNP
Lothian East – Labour gain from SNP
Mid Dunbartonshire – LibDem gain from SNP
Midlothian – Labour gain from SNP
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey – SNP hold
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke – Labour gain from SNP
Na h-Eileanan an Iar – Labour gain from SNP
North Ayrshire and Arran – SNP hold
North East Fife – LibDem gain from SNP
Orkney and Shetland – LibDem hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire North – SNP hold
Paisley and Renfrewshire South – Labour gain from SNP
Perth and Kinross-shire – SNP hold
Rutherglen – Labour gain from SNP
Stirling and Strathallan – SNP hold
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – SNP gain from Conservatives
West Dunbartonshire – Labour gain from SNP
The news comes just days after a separate MRP by the polling firm Survation suggested the SNP would win 41 Scottish seats.
Across the UK as a whole, the YouGov survey predicted:
Labour would win 403 seats
The Tories would win 155 seats
The LibDems would return 49 MPs
The SNP would return 19 MPs
Plaid Cymru would win four seats
The Greens would win one seat
Reform UK would come second in 36 constituencies, but not win any
New YouGov MRP – Labour set to win more than 400 seats
Labour: 403 (+201 since GE2019)
Conservatives: 155 (-210)
Lib Dems: 49 (+38)
SNP: 19 (-29)
Plaid: 4 (=)
Greens: 1 (=)
Reform UK: 0 (=)https://t.co/OsyOEUzb0L pic.twitter.com/acJwFG2RI0— YouGov (@YouGov) April 3, 2024
The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from March 7-27.
The YouGov analysis found that prominent Tory figures including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Iain Duncan Smith, and Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.
You can find the full tables for the whole of Britain on the YouGov website.