May's four tests before she will sign off on Irish border backstop deal

There appear to be four new mini-red lines in relation to the Irish border issue.

Reassuring the House of Commons that there would be no “carving up” of the United Kingdom, Theresa May unveiled four tests that must be passed before the UK will sign off on a backstop, or insurance policy, that the Irish border will remain open in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

• There must be a firm commitment to the EU-UK temporary customs arrangement. This would be legally binding.

• There should be an option to extend the implementation period as an alternative to the backstop.

• The UK must be able to leave at will, not be locked into any arrangement ‘against our will’.

• The government must ensure full access for all of NI businesses to Great Britain.

While the EU has already ruled out the first, the idea that it would be legally binding was being seen as a possible sop to backbencher and former Brexit minister Steve Baker, who just minutes before revealed he had dropped his bid to block the EU’s backstop proposal through an amendment to new legislation on Northern Ireland.

The second step is a negotiating position that has been partly gifted by the EU’s proposal to offer an extension to the transition period.

But the idea that the backstop can be swapped for a transition period is the same as time-limiting it, which is a non-starter for the EU.

What May, however, might be driving at is the UK’s belief that the EU will relent on its opposition to a UK-wide, rather than a Northern Ireland-only, customs arrangement and that this is what she is aiming for in negotiations.

One source in Whitehall, when told that this would be difficult for the EU, which is trying to protect the integrity of the single market, suggested this was “a political choice” for EU leaders, not a technical one.

May’s third test, that the UK should not be locked into any deal, is designed to placate Brexiters who are furious that she would even contemplate an extension of the backstop.

There was also a hint of the backstop to the backstop, or “bridge” between the withdrawal agreement and the future relationship document, with May promising “sufficient information” in the latter to address sensitivities in relation to the former.

For the Irish and the EU, the backstop has to be open-ended, to be a “weather proof” insurance policy that covers anything from a delay in the trade deal to a change of government and Brexit policy.

Her fourth step was perplexing and fuelled immediate speculation that this was a suggestion that May had accepted the EU’s proposal for limited regulatory checks on cargo, animals or food going from Britain to the island of Ireland. Sources insisted this was an “over-reading” of her statement.