Modi is on a mission to assert India's global power. His election setback won't deter him.

• India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a narrower-than-expected reelection victory.

• But the setback likely won't deter his global ambitions.

• Modi wants to make India one of the world's major powers.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged from Tuesday's election victory with his air of invincibility damaged.

The strongman leader of the world's largest democracy had been predicted to win reelection for a third term by a landslide.

But his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to gain enough seats to claim outright victory, and it will need the support of coalition partners to form a government.

The result, though, is unlikely to deter Modi, as he continues to pursue one of the core goals of his decade in power: transforming India into one of the world's most powerful nations.

A leader of the Global South

Under Modi, India's growth has put it on the path to becoming the world's third-biggest economy by 2027 — and it has become an important and increasingly abrasive global power player.

Modi wants to position India as a leader of the Global South — a term often used to describe a group of developing nations — and for it to have a permanent position on the UN Security Council to mark its new global status.

He has strengthened ties with the US, a long-standing ally, but he's also sought to build ties with Russia and has clashed with Asia's chief power, China.

Modi will work to cement his foreign-policy legacy in his third term.

Countering Chinese aggression

Richard Rossow, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that countering China's aggression and seeking foreign investment will be key focuses for Modi going forward.

"India's main priorities will remain unchanged," he said.

A clash between India and China in June 2020 over a long-simmering Himalayan border dispute resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. Meanwhile, tensions in the Indian Ocean are escalating, with a report from earlier this year finding that China is mapping vast undersea areas in preparation for a potential naval conflict with the rival regional power.

India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan, and it'll be looking to counter China's aggression by strengthening these strategic relationships.

"On security affairs, India wants to continue building partnerships that can help it manage belligerent actions China is taking today and in the future. This includes robust engagement with nations in its own neighborhood, particularly in the maritime domain," Rossow said.

A dark side

India's new assertiveness under Modi has a dark side.

The Washington Post in April reported that India's security services were behind the assassination of a dissident in Canada last June and the attempted assassination of a Modi critic in the US, claims that India has denied.

Modi's disappointing election result is unlikely to change his often abrasive and aggressive pursuit of foreign goals.

"This election result is unlikely to have much of an impact on India's international security actions," Rossow said.

But Modi will face serious challenges in his efforts to cement India's new global status.

India has bought vast quantities of Russian oil, and that money has been used by Putin to fund his war in Ukraine. This move has aggravated the US, which has reportedly pressured Modi to stop the purchases.

Putin's "no limits" relationship with China's Xi Jinping presents another strategic conundrum for Modi, who seems keen to retain good ties with Putin but is wary of China's global might.

Modi's core challenges in the years ahead will be ensuring regional stability by avoiding war with China and Pakistan and continuing India's economic rise through vital domestic reforms.

"India's journey towards true great power capabilities is thus likely to be long and arduous," Ashley J. Tellis, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote.

Correction: June 5, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated which countries are part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. It's a group consisting of India, the US, Australia, and Japan; the UK is not part of it.

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