Nigel Farage may hold lofty ambitions but he remains a divisive figure

Nigel Farage is having a good campaign.

All the signs are that his entry into the 2024 General Election campaign has improved Reform UK’s fortunes.

Their poll average since the announcement he would lead them into the election is 15 per cent. It was 11 points for the period between the election being called and his announcement.

Meanwhile, new polling from Ipsos over the past weekend shows 32 per cent now think Reform UK are having a good campaign, twice as many as said the same in week one and twice as many as say the Conservatives are having a good campaign now.

Such is Farage’s presence on the campaign trail, speculation in Westminster has been in overdrive that he might join a defeated Conservative Party after the election and become Leader of the Opposition.

Farage himself has done little to dampen these rumours, indicating that he would like to be Prime Minister by 2029. Though he is coy about how that might come about.

Could it happen?

Nigel Farage has obvious appeal amongst 2019 Conservative voters. 42 per cent of this group tell Ipsos they hold a favourable opinion of the Reform UK leader, compared to 37 per cent that are favourable towards Rishi Sunak.

When asked who would make the better Prime Minister, this group split evenly between the two (34 per cent choose Sunak and 35 per cent Farage). Our data shows 8 in 10 switchers to Reform have come from the Conservatives, with immigration their number one issue.

The appeal of brand Farage for 2019 Conservatives is perhaps best typified by the fact they are as favourable towards Reform UK (42 per cent) as the Conservative Party today (40 per cent).

Everything we know about the 2019 Conservative voting coalition is that it is now divided.

Perhaps Nigel Farage is the man to put it at least some elements of it back together. There are few in the Conservative Party today that can obviously match his brand and name recognition with that group.

And yet we must not overstate Farage’s appeal.

Whilst 42 per cent of 2019 Conservatives hold a favourable opinion of him, 38 per cent are unfavourable.

The country overall holds net unfavourable opinions of him too. 26 per cent are favourable and 49 per cent unfavourable. 68 per cent of Remain voters are unfavourable.

For all his appeal with some, he is highly unpopular with others.

Becoming Leader of the Opposition would not be easy either.

Not everyone in the Conservative Party would welcome him with open arms.

However, a new MRP model from Ipsos released this week suggests that Farage could enter Parliament next month, which would very much give him a path to that goal.

But even if he gets there, winning a General Election is another matter entirely.

Our polling this week shows the public overall prefer Keir Starmer as Prime Minister to Nigel Farage by a margin of 40 per cent to 22 per cent. This could just be a moment in time, when Starmer is at his politically strongest but it does show how Farage’s appeal has limits.

As opposition leader he would need policies on the economy and public services like schools and the NHS that carry broad public support, not just the ability to appeal to 15 per cent -20 per cent of the electorate.

It’s one thing to carry the torch in a campaign, but becoming the main opposition leader in parliament is a different type of race that Nigel Farage has not run yet.

It may well be that Farage can lead a party to 15 per cent to 20 per cent of the vote in a General Election where all the conditions are ideal for him.

Whether he can build a broad-based voting coalition that takes a party he leads over 40 per cent of the vote very much remains to be seen.

Those picturing Nigel Farage as Prime Minister may well be getting ahead of themselves.

* Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos