No escalation this time: How does NATO deal with Russia?

All it takes is a spark. After a day when Russia missiles rained down across the whole of Ukraine, two projectiles landed over the border in a Polish farming village, killing two people. We gauge the evidence and the latest reactions from NATO headquarters where according to its Article 5, an attack against one is an attack against all.

How close did they come this time to Article 5? Never during the Cold War did the West engage in active battle with the Soviet Union. Does Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and his battlefield setbacks since then arguably make this a more volatile moment than at any time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis?

Europe is not taking any chances. It has now ramped up defense spending, with EU nations even pondering the idea of pooling their purchases of military hardware. Does Europe have the means and the resolve if the standoff spirals? To secure lasting peace, how all-in do Ukraine’s allies have to go? Can they for instance talk de-escalation and Black Sea grain exports when the Kremlin is bombing Ukrainian cities smack in the middle of a G20 summit?

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