Yahoo News What the North East's mayoral and council votes could tell us about the general election outcome
July 4 promises to be a fascinating election day in the North East, with a number of intriguing stories to follow across the region.
But it is just a couple of months since voters here last went to the polls. Below we take a look at what hints May’s local council and North East mayoral elections could have to offer about what is to come this week.
Trouble for Tories?
The question on general election night in the North East will be whether Labour can win every seat in the region. There are several – the likes of Bishop Auckland or Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor, both in County Durham – where Labour are expected to gain back ‘red wall’ areas that went blue in 2019.
But Labour’s big lead in the national polls means that there are a couple of Tory strongholds also in play, namely the seats of Hexham and North Northumberland. There were no local council elections in either Northumberland or Durham in May, so we have no ward-level data to offer a more detailed glimpse at the situation in each constituency.
But it is worth noting that Labour was comfortably ahead in both counties in the North East mayoral vote – with Kim McGuinness polling 45% in County Durham and 38% in Northumberland, and Tory Guy Renner-Thompson winning 12.% and 19.4% respectively as he finished third behind independent candidate Jamie Driscoll in both. Those results and the latest polling predictions could be indicators that Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Guy Opperman could struggle to hold onto their seats.
Reform’s target
Reform UK candidate Paul Donaghy finished fourth overall in the mayoral election and also lost his local council seat in Washington. But it was notable that Sunderland’s vote tally in the North East mayor contest put Mr Donaghy in second, ahead of the independent Jamie Driscoll, with an 18.2% share.
Mr Donaghy is on the campaign trail again as Reform’s candidate in Washington and Gateshead South, a seat that one poll last week claimed that he could win – though that prediction has generally been viewed as an outlier. It was no surprise Wearside was chosen as the place for a Nigel Farage rally last week, with a crowd of 1,000 adoring supporters welcoming him to the Rainton Arena, and it remains to be seen whether his move to become party leader gives Reform a notable boost in the North East to deliver on his claim that they are now the main challengers to Labour across the region at this general election.
Hope for independents and Greens?
Independent candidate Jamie Driscoll, who was previously the North of Tyne mayor and quit the Labour Party last year, finished second in the North East mayoral election. Mr Driscoll performed particularly well in Newcastle and South Tyneside, finishing within 1,500 votes of Ms McGuinness in both.
There was also a surge of independent candidates in South Tyneside’s council elections, with nine picking up seats from Labour after what was described as a “perfect storm” of factors damaging the party, including a long-running industrial dispute with bin workers and controversy surrounding former council leader Iain Malcolm. South Shields is seen as a safe Labour seat, with Emma Lewell-Buck winning a majority of nearly 10,000 at the last election, but independent Ahmed Khan will be hoping to capitalise on local dissatisfaction with Labour.
So will the Green Party’s David Francis, whose party has enjoyed plenty of success at the ballot box in South Tyneside over recent years. May saw the Greens get their first ever councillors elected in Newcastle, where mental health worker Matt Wiliams has been a vocal campaigner in the Newcastle East and Wallsend constituency.
It will also be worth watching the battle between rival independents Habib Rahman and Yvonne Ridley in the Newcastle Central and West seat, as well as the impact that the well-known Georgina Hill can have on the race in North Northumberland.
