OPINION - It's hard to believe, but the Rwanda plan could work out for Rishi Sunak — and this is how

When the government in Dublin admitted this week that migrants are moving to Ireland from Britain because they are fearful of being sent to Rwanda, Rishi Sunak must have been delighted at such an electoral gift.

That’s because there couldn’t have been plainer — or more independent — evidence that his hotly contested scheme to send migrants arriving here illegally to the African country might finally be making the prospect of starting a new life here far less appealing, at least to some.

It’s true that the flow of small boats across the Channel has continued, despite the government getting its Safety of Rwanda Bill through Parliament to make its removal scheme lawful, in a sign that any deterrent effect achieved so far has only been partial at best.

Critics continue to point too at the hundreds of millions of pounds already spent even before the first plane has left the ground.

But Mr Sunak will be confident that despite the barrage of negative headlines — which have included the disclosure this week that the Home Office is unable to locate for immediate detention the first tranche of departures to Rwanda — the political tide could turn if the first forced removals get underway within the next nine to 11 weeks as planned.

That’s well before the likely date of the general election and will give the Prime Minister chance to claim both that he has an answer to the dilemma of what to do with migrants who don’t qualify for asylum and to turn the focus onto whether Labour has a viable alternative?

That’s highly debatable. Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper trumpets a five-point plan which she claims will “smash the smuggling gangs” through a new cross-border unit and closer cooperation with the EU.

Other aspirations include new agreements with France and other countries to send migrants back and making it easier for family members overseas to join refugees already in Britain, as well as processing asylum claims here quicker.

It makes good rhetoric, but the reality is that the National Crime Agency already works closely with EU countries to tackle people smuggling gangs and seize boats and engines before they reach France.

It also has a cross border unit with French police and as the agency’s threat director Chris Farrimond said this week is having “quite a lot of success” and working “really closely in joint investigation teams with multi European countries” doing a “lot of work on our behalf”.

More money might enable greater success, but just as drug gangs persist despite robust law enforcement, it feels fanciful to think that Labour’s plan can stop the people smugglers altogether.

The same problem arises with the promise of new returns agreements. A previous scheme when we were in the EU resulted in only small numbers going back and left the Government still stuck with many failed asylum seekers.

It’s hard to see a much different outcome from any agreement, which, even if it could be reached, would almost certainly come at the politically dangerous price of accepting large numbers of refugees from other parts of Europe.

Speeding up the processing of asylum claims here is desirable, but doesn’t address what happens to those who fail, while more family reunions could stop some dangerous journeys, they could also encourage others to try by adding to the reward for getting here.

For now, the heat remains on Mr Sunak. But if this week’s Irish gift is followed by the first flights to Rwanda taking off, the small boats problem could become Labour’s election headache.

Martin Bentham is the Evening Standard’s home affairs editor