OPINION - Should the Tories be relieved Natalie Elphicke didn't defect to Reform?

Well, that was unexpected. Natalie Elphicke, until a few hours ago the Conservative MP for Dover, has defected to the Labour Party. In a bid to amp up the drama, the whole thing happened moments before Prime Minister's Questions, as Elphicke crossed the floor to take her seat behind Keir Starmer on the opposition benches.

In a statement released by Labour, Elphicke said that under the prime minister's leadership, the Tories have become a “byword for incompetence and division”. She added: “From small boats to biosecurity, Rishi Sunak’s government is failing to keep our borders safe and secure”.

Direct defections are rare, but are more likely to occur in the political conditions we are currently experiencing. That is, a governing party, long in the tooth and streets behind an energetic opposition. Indeed, Elphicke's decision swiftly follows that of another Tory MP, Dan Poulter, who made the same move last month. In other words, defections are something of a lagging indicator.

As a side note, this is what made Christian Wakefiord's defection (he crossed the floor from Conservative to Labour in January 2022) a bit more unusual, in that it came mid-way through the parliament, when Labour's poll lead was still a fairly recent phenomenon.

Now, Elphicke is not an uncontroversial figure. This piece from The Times's Whitehall editor Gabriel Pogrund gives more than enough flavour in that regard. A few years ago, Elphicke also criticised Marcus Rashford, suggesting the footballer, who has campaigned on food poverty, "should have spent more time perfecting his game and less time playing politics." Elphicke subsequently apologised but when asked about the comments, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves replied soon after that she should "f*** off".

Neither Poulter nor Elphicke are set to stand as Labour MPs at the next election. Both come with baggage, but Starmer and his team clearly think that the prize of embarrassing the prime minister outweighs any potential disquiet amongst Labour MPs and members. He is probably right. Ultimately, as far as the story will be covered and consumed, it will be that another Conservative MP has defected to Labour, in this case because Starmer is 'better' on combatting small boats.

Consider, however, an intriguing counterfactual, raised by Professor Will Jennings, whereby Elphicke defects not to Labour but Reform UK. That might have been a much more interesting and potentially consequential move. Not simply because Reform seems a better fit for Elphicke than Labour, but because it would have given the party its second MP (after Lee Anderson) and some proper momentum. Throw in the possible return of Nigel Farage and all of a sudden Tory backbenchers go into full panic mode, rather than shrug the whole thing off.

As it is, today has been more of a head scratcher and unlikely (famous last words) to have much of a long-term impact beyond generating yet another uncomfortable news cycle for the prime minister.

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