2024 Oscars: Best Supporting Actress Predictions

The 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

Somewhat balancing out its snubs, “Barbie” got a surprise Best Supporting Actress nomination for star America Ferrera, deliverer of the Warner Bros. film’s viral rallying speech. Should she actually win the category come March 10, she would be the first Latina to take the category for playing a role that’s not Anita in “West Side Story.”

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More likely, though, is Da’Vine Joy Randolph winning for her performance in crowdpleaser “The Holdovers.” The “Dolemite Is My Name” breakout had won just about every significant critics award she could going into 2024, and recently collected a Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, and SAG Award for playing the supervisor of a boarding school cafeteria mourning her son who was killed in action in Vietnam.

Randolph’s closest contender, Danielle Brooks, the second actress to be nominated for the role of Sofia in “The Color Purple” (executive producer Oprah Winfrey was the first), has been a late entry, meaning there could still be more momentum to build. Unfortunately, the film’s box office results have seen a steep decline since its successful Christmas Day launch.

Meanwhile, this is shockingly the first Oscar nomination for “Oppenheimer” star Emily Blunt, who had previous close calls with breakout roles in “The Devil Wears Prada” and “The Young Victoria,” as well as a lead turn in “The Girl on the Train,” and since then has become a dependable star of blockbusters like “A Quiet Place.”

Finally, Jodie Foster is the rare performer with two acting Oscars to her name, so it is unlikely that Oscar voters will feel as compelled to choose her as their winner, but she has been a lock from the start for playing the titular swimmer’s best friend and coach in “Nyad,” Foster’s first openly gay role.

Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.

Contenders:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
America Ferrera (“Barbie”)

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