Final Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay – ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ is Projected to Triumph, but Watch Out for ‘Past Lives’

Final Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay – ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ is Projected to Triumph, but Watch Out for ‘Past Lives’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay

PAST LIVES, from left: Teo YOO, Greta Lee, John Magro, 2023. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
PAST LIVES, from left: Teo YOO, Greta Lee, John Magro, 2023. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 7, 2024): Following its victories at the Golden Globes for best screenplay and the BAFTA for original screenplay, it appears almost inevitable that “Anatomy of a Fall” will secure the Oscar for its co-writers, the couple Justine Triet and Arthur Harari. However, such a presumption might lull us into a false sense of security, a feeling I share myself.

The cautionary tale of “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) looms large in memory, as it similarly boasted wins at both the Globe and BAFTA, only to leave empty-handed on Oscar night.

Recalling the surprising upset of Jason Reitman’s “Up in the Air” (2009), which unexpectedly lost the adapted screenplay Oscar to debut writer Geoffrey Fletcher for “Precious,” a film concurrently triumphing in the supporting actress category with Mo’Nique, one can’t help but wonder if history might repeat itself with “The Holdovers.”

Conversations with industry voters lead me to believe that should there be an underdog poised to upset the race, it could well be Celine Song for her romantic drama “Past Lives,” which has garnered significant backing from members and earned critical acclaim.

In light of these considerations, the outcome of the Oscar race may prove to be far more uncertain than initially assumed.

Will Win: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
Could Win: “Past Lives” (Celine Song)
Should Win: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Should have been here: “Monster” (Yuji Sakamoto) and “The Boy and the Heron” (Hayao Miyazaki)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

And the Nominees Are:

  1. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justine Triet, Arthur Harari

  2. Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song

  3. The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson

  4. May December” (Netflix) — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik

  5. Maestro” (Netflix) — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Gareth Edwards, Chris Weitz

  • Beau is Afraid” (A24) — Ari Aster

  • Dream Scenario” (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli

  • The Iron Claw” (A24) — Sean Durkin

  • Past Lives” (A24) — Celine Song

  • Showing Up” (A24) — Jon Raymond, Kelly Reichardt

  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24) — Nicole Holofcener

  • Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Roger Ross Williams, David Teague

  • A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Bettina Gilois, Hernán Jiménez, Alejandra Márquez Abella

  • Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Emerald Fennell

  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Christos Nikou

  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — John Carney

  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — David Scarpa

  • Golda” (Bleecker Street) — Nicholas Martin

  • Suzume” (Crunchyroll) — Makoto Shinkai

  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola

  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson

  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features) — A.V. Rockwell

  • The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho) — Hayao Miyazaki

  • Monica” (IFC Films) — Andrea Pallaoro, Orlando Tirado

  • Migration” (Illumination) — Mike White

  • Memory” (Ketchup Entertainment) — Michel Franco

  • Story Ave” (Kino Lorber) — Aristotle Torres, Bonsu Thompson

  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate) — Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, Adele Lim

  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures) — Paul Schrader

  • Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM) — Guy Ritchie, Ivan Atkinson, Marn Davies

  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion) — Emma Seligman, Rachel Sennott

  • A Good Person” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) — Zach Braff

  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi) — Aki Kaurismäki

  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Justin Triet, Arthur Harari

  • La Chimera” (Neon) — Alice Rohrwacher

  • Perfect Days” (Neon) — Takuma Takasaki, Wim Wenders

  • El Conde” (Netflix) — Pablo Larraín, Guillermo Calderón

  • Fair Play” (Netflix) — Chloe Domont

  • May December” (Netflix) — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik

  • Maestro” (Netflix) — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer

  • Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire” (Netflix) — Zack Snyder, Kurt Johnstad, Shay Hatten

  • Rustin” (Netflix) — Julian Breece, Dustin Lance Black

  • Elemental” (Pixar) — Peter Sohn, John Hoberg, Kat Likkel, Brenda Hsueh

  • Moving On” (Roadside Attractions) — Paul Weitz

  • Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions) — Ray Romano, Mark Stegemann

  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures) — Stefani Robinson

  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Jimmy Smallhorne, Timothy Prager, Joshua D. Maurer

  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Maryam Keshavarz

  • Shayda” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Noora Niasari

  • The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics) — İlker Çatak, Johannes Duncker

  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures) — Akela Cooper, James Wan

  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Rebecca Miller

  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach **

  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Jennifer Lee, Allison Moore

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could be campaigned or moved into another category. All release dates are subject to change.

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