People running schools in Wales are desperately worried

'There is nothing else left to cut' This was the simple, stark warning in a letter headteachers in one area of Wales have sent to parents this week.

They have been cutting spending for years, not replacing staff, going through redundancy processes and trimming spending. They say there is nothing more they can cut. And yet they have no choice. This year they have to pay staff more money because of a pay offer approved by the Welsh Government. But they're not going to get enough extra money to pay for it.

Calling it "unprecedented", the Blaenau Gwent headteachers said it was causing them "high levels of stress and anxiety" as they take decisions "that will have a profound negative effect" on young learners. School life, they said, will suffer as there is no money for buses, trips or events; teachers won't be able to access training; class sizes will get bigger; and it will get harder to retain staff.

Their conclusion will be terrifying for all parents. "The public service of education is now in great danger of failing the next generation of children in Blaenau Gwent".

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The Blaenau Gwent headteachers are not alone. School leaders in Swansea wrote a similar letter last week. The letter was signed by the heads of Swansea secondaries, including Olchfa, one the highest performing schools in Wales.

They told parents that they are “in a critical period of financial strain that directly threatens the breadth and quality of educational programmes we can offer”.

The council responded directly to the letter and made it clear that the local authority, which is run by a Labour ruling group, puts the responsibility for the trauma school leaders are enduring firming at the doors of the Welsh Government in Cardiff Bay and the Treasury in Westminster.

"The council will continue to press the UK Government to provide the funding to Welsh Government that our schools need,” it said.

The Welsh Government agreed to a 6.5% teachers pay rise last year with a 1.5% cash bonus but Swansea said it had not passed on an equivalent rise in funding to councils so the council had required schools to make a contribution.

We asked the Welsh Government for a response to this and it blamed Westminster and claimed it was prioritising core public services including schools, saying: "Our budget for 2024-25 is now worth £700m less in real terms than when it was set by the UK Government in 2021."

Schools all across Wales are terrified that the same will happen again this year. A pay review process is underway already for this year's pay review and the Welsh Government would only say: "The independent pay and review body process for September 2024 has started and will give their recommendations later this year. Once this is published, we will then work with unions and teachers on the proposals.”

Schools have until the end of May to advise their local education authorities of their financial position for 2024 -25 but deficits running into millions have already been posted in some areas. Many councils have told schools to use their reserves to prevent going into the red this year, pushing the problem into next year potentially.

On top of financial woes schools are also dealing with worsening levels of pupil behaviour, persistently high absence rates, the lowest Pisa attainment scores in the UK and violence. While the recent triple stabbing in a Carmarthenshire secondary - and lockdowns prompted by threats at other schools - are rare, they are indicative of the level of problems those working in education face.

Earlier this year staff at Pencoedtre High in Barry said they were being used as "punchbags" as they walked out in a row over pupil violence. Data obtained under Freedom of Information by WalesOnline earlier this year show persistent disruptive behaviour and assaulting an adult or pupil were by far the most usual reasons schools permanently or temporarily excluded children and you can read more about that here.

School leaders, staff, parents, pupils and unions, have flagged for years the negative effects of the pandemic on children’s emotional and academic health as well as the issue of rising costs,under funding and the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile arguments continue over who, and what, is responsible for funding and other pressures, or how best to address them.

Teaching unions say staff are overworked with increasing demands and reforms from Welsh Government such as the new curriculum and Additional Learning Needs regulations as well as new Wales-only GCSEs and now a consultation on changing the school year calendar. Headteachers say they also have to foot some of the bill for teachers’ pay awards, agreed by Welsh Government, from already stretched budgets.

The NAHT’s report, Fair Funding For Wales, shows more than three quarters (76%) of school leaders taking part in the survey said they did not have enough in this year’s budget to cover the pay award for teachers and leaders. The Welsh Government insists it has given councils enough money to cover staff pay awards, but it seems cash strapped local authorities have not passed that on.

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On top of this falling rolls have hit coffers as funding is given per pupil, leaving small schools particularly vulnerable. Rural areas are particularly affected by falling pupil numbers.

Ceredigion Council confirmed this week that it is looking at closing a number of its schools. There are fears that up to seven schools may be shut as the council grapples with a £14m shortfall in this year’s budget.

Asked which schools could shut Ceredigion Council told WalesOnline it is “looking to start the process of reviewing the situation from the point of view of our primary schools” as a result of financial pressures affecting local authorities. A proposal paper will go to cabinet early in July this year “which identifies some possibilities for meeting the significant financial shortfall”, a spokesperson added, saying they would not go into detail regarding the number or names of schools, or possible savings, until the process has officially started.

While schools face these daily worries those in charge of funding point the finger at one another. The Welsh Government says it’s lack of cash from Westminster, councils say Cardiff Bay isn’t passing enough money on, the Welsh Government says councils choose how and where to spend what they get.

Caught in the middle are the headteachers and school governing bodies who have no choice but to work with what they get. Frustrated that they are blamed for cuts headteachers and governors across Wales have been sending out letters to parents in recent months warning about the effect of getting less money on their children’s education.

Headteachers have voiced their concerns publicly and to council committees and AMs, but these repeated warnings are now so commonplace they are no longer having the impact or shock factor they should have. From cities to rural areas the warnings keep coming.

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The situation in Wrexham demonstrates the universal problem of how more money is worth less in the face of rising bills. Although school budgets there will technically be boosted by £5.7m in 2024/25, due to inflation it will ultimately result in cuts of £5.4m (5% per cent) in real terms, those in charge report.

In the Vale of Glamorgan 22 schools are in deficit to a total £3.4m, including all but one secondary (Whitmore High in Barry) confirmed Cllr Rhys Thomas, the Conservative councillor, who chairs the Vale’s learning and culture scrutiny committee. He warned of “lots of problems with unfunded pay awards” and has written to the new Education Minister Lynne Neagle complaining that the Welsh Government school funding formula is unfair.

Vale Council leader Lis Burnett responded to his complaints saying Cllr Thomas would better spend his time “lobbying his own party for an end to the austerity that has damaged communities right across the UK” - pushing the blame squarely back to Westminster.

At the other end of Wales heads in Conwy have warned: “The financial situation in schools is now critical and there can be no doubt that further cuts to school budgets will have a significant impact on what we can provide for our pupils”. In another rural area, Powys, headteachers have described the effects of having to make staff redundant to balance the books as “intolerable”.

The Gwernyfed cluster of schools told parents that schools in Powys are in a “universally poor position” in a situation they realise is not exclusive to their county. In the letter, sent out in March, they went on to say: “this is not due to mismanagement by headteachers and governing but the decisions taken at Powys Council level due to funding pressures which we of course acknowledge.

“Too many schools made staff redundant last year in order to comply with the financial regulations and submit balanced budgets. This management of change is extremely difficult to lead causing high levels of staff anxiety and low morale.

“To find ourselves in the same position this year, despite the scrupulous and constant budget management undertaken by schools, is simply intolerable.”

In an echo of other councils Powys responded saying: “Schools across Wales continue to face significant pressures due to falling pupil numbers as well as financial pressures including pay, energy and other costs. Although the council has agreed to include an additional £4.2m directly into Powys schools delegated budgets (from £83.8m to £88m) we are unable to fully protect all schools from the funding pressures they face.

“Governing bodies, like council services, will need to consider how they manage their financial pressures within the resources available to them via the agreed school funding formula. This will mean that they face difficult decisions as to how they realign and set their budgets within the funding available to them.

“The council has been proactively supporting schools across the county in their work to realign and set their budgets.”

However much budgets are “re-aligned” and whoever anyone wants to blame for the lack of money, most in education agree that there is simply not enough.

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The National Association of Headteachers. which represents headteachers, is adamant the pay award has not been fully funded, adding pressure to school budgets. But it also points back to Westminster as the root of the funding problem.

A statement on te NAHT website says nearly nine in 10 headteachers will have to make budget cuts this year, adding: “NAHT Cymru says the issues stem from reductions in UK government funding to Wales, with real-terms funding for schools falling by around 6% since 2009/10.

“At the same time, schools are facing inflationary pressures of £177m in 2023-24 and £114m in 2024-25.”

Whatever the figures and the arguments it’s clear that schools are caught in the headwinds of a cost of living crisis, exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and austerity and what they say have been years of underfunding.

NAHT general secretary, Paul Whiteman, wishes those in charge at the top would stop the blame game and find solutions. Speaking earlier this year he said: “Our members are stoic and endlessly flexible in working to deliver the best possible education for children in the face of adversity - so for them to be warning of such devastating cuts is a real cause for alarm.

“This isn’t about playing the blame game. It’s about urging politicians and public servants to acknowledge the unsustainable pressures facing schools in Wales and the impact they will continue to have on children’s education without urgent action.”