Yahoo News The PGA Awards 2025 Nominations Have Not Made Predicting Best Picture Any Easier
The nominations announcement of the PGA Awards 2025 made for a tough morning for the “Nickel Boys” and “Sing Sing” Oscar campaigns in particular.
Because the Producers Guild of America uses the same system as the Academy to determine its nominees for Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures — a preferential ballot with 10 slots— it is seen overall as the most accurate precursor for Best Picture. In fact, its nominees completely mirrored what the Best Picture nominees were in 2024.
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Have things really changed that much between now and December, when the winners of the AFI Awards were announced? In recent years that awards body has been almost as accurate at predicting the final 10 Best Picture nominees, often only leaving out the international titles. For example, the American Film Institute had “May December” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” last year instead of eventual nominees “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest,” but the latter films were not produced in the United States.
Just based off those two lists, and all the nominations that have occurred in between, the safest bets for a Best Picture nomination are “A Complete Unknown,” “A Real Pain,” “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Wicked.” One can surmise that “The Substance” was not on the AFI list because it is a French production. The body horror hit first read as too gory for Academy members’ tastes when it first premiered at Cannes, but is peaking at the right moment, directly after Demi Moore won Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes. A Best Picture nomination seems imminent at this point.
The true wild card is “September 5.” First being shopped around at fall festivals by Republic Pictures, which is a Paramount company, the studio finally bought it for itself after receiving great feedback on it from critics. But it is a tricky title to campaign for awards. The film is a true ensemble piece with its most famous star being Peter Sarsgaard, who had long been considered more of a character actor. The fact that “September 5” is about how ABC Sports covered the kidnapping and murder of the 11 members of the Israeli team by Black September at the 1972 Munich Olympics gives it a sense of timeliness, as the conflict between Israel and Palestine remains top of mind, but there have not been any additional Oscar categories that the film has ever felt competitive in.
There has always been an idea that the PGA Awards are more populist than the Oscars, so it is not just “September 5” that does not seem destined to make the final cut. There is just as easily a case to be made for a “Dune: Part Two” snub. But in spite of being an awards body that has so little overlap with the Academy, the Golden Globes nominations did end up being an early sign that the Oscar prospects for critically beloved indies “Sing Sing” and “Nickel Boys” have slowed down across the board.
Diverting our attention over to the PGA Awards 2025 TV nominations, which were also announced on January 16, the Comedy Series category offers more of the same, with frequent Emmy winners “Hacks,” “The Bear,” “Abbott Elementary,” and “Only Murders in the Building” all making the cut alongside the farewell season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” The Drama Series category features shows like “Bad Sisters,” “The Diplomat,” and “Slow Horses,” which have been building up their awards profiles with each season, but FX phenomenon “Shōgun” still seems hard to beat. “Baby Reindeer” is also an intimidating force in the Limited Series category, but newcomer “The Penguin” has so far been the one contender not eligible for the 2024 Emmys to win several times during the winter TV awards season. Jury is out though on if “The Batman” spinoff series remains a limited series by the time Emmy season rolls around.
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