Political expert on General Election in south Essex as seats 'too close to call'

GROWING support for Reform UK could “catapult Labour into first place” in south Essex at the General Election, an expert has said.

Ahead of the July 4 election, south Essex is “too close to call” in many areas with the latest polls indicating that Labour could pick up traditionally Tory seats in both Southend West and Leigh and Southend East and Rochford. 

John Bartle, the professor of Government at the University of Essex, who specialises in Government, said “south Essex appears to be a good source of support for Reform UK” but added there is “a lot to play for” in the area as the clock ticks down until residents head to the polls.

According to the latest YouGov polling, Labour are on track to gain Southend East and Rochford as well as Southend West and Leigh.

View - John Bartle, professor of Government at the University of Essex (Image: Newsquest)

Reform UK is edging the poll in Basildon and Billericay while Labour currently have a narrow lead in South Basildon and East Thurrock.

The Tories are predicted to hold Rayleigh and Wickford, as well as Castle Point.

However, Reform UK is mounting a challenge, with support between 17-22 per cent in constituencies across south Essex.

Professor Bartle said: “A small increase in support of four to five points in Reform UK vote in those constituencies may be enough to catapult Labour into first place on a relatively low share of the vote.

“It is possible that voters will return to the Conservatives from Reform UK if the Conservatives attract voters or more likely something happens to activate voters’ fears of a Labour government.

“Labour will try to persuade voters not to ‘waste’ their ballots on the Greens or Liberal Democrats.

“This is particularly true in Rayleigh and Wickford where the Liberal Democrats appear to be on around 10 per cent.”

Professor Bartle stressed it could be down to the willingness of voters to turn out and vote.

He added: “In short, if the polls are correct, with just ten days or so to go, there is a lot to play for in South Essex for the two major parties and Reform UK.

“The final result will depend on the willingness of voters to turn out and vote, the ability of the party machines to mobilise their potential vote and unpredictable events between now and the close of polls on July 4.”