Pollsters predict 'political earthquake' for Essex if General Election was held today

Essex could be set to experience a "political earthquake" an expert has said following new polling predictions. Results from an Ipsos survey of nearly 20,000 participants nationally suggest the county could be on the cusp of a major re-drawing of its political map.

The pollsters predict Nigel Farage to succeed in Clacton to be Reform UK's only MP in the House of Commons. Such a result would require a considerable majority of 24,702 to overturn the incumbent Conservatives.

Colchester is projected to change from Conservative to Labour control along with several other constituencies such as Southend East and Rochford, Southend West and Leigh, and Thurrock. The bellwether seat of Harlow is predicted to 'lean Labour'.

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The poll could also be a concerning sign for senior Tories James Cleverly and Priti Patel in Braintree and Witham respectively. Braintree is tipped to be 'lean Conservative' whilst the latter is a 'toss-up' with Conservative and Labour polled at 33 per cent and 31 per cent of the vote share.

Chelmsford is also predicted to have a close three-way fight for control between the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Labour. Ipsos projects a 31 per cent of the vote share to be blue, whilst Labour could take 27% and the Lib Dems 29 per cent.

All 18 of the county's constituencies are Conservative-held heading into the General Election on July 4. If Ipsos' projection is correct between six seats (Colchester, Harlow, Harwich and North Essex, Southend East and Rochford, Southend West and Leigh, and Thurrock) or possibly nine (Epping Forest, South Basildon and East Thurrock and the three-way contest at Chelmsford) could be captured by Labour.

Professor of Government at the University of Essex, John Bartle, told EssexLive: "Conservative strategists will undoubtedly be alarmed by this evidence of a political earthquake. Essex men and Essex women are turning away from the Conservatives in constituency after constituency.

"Nevertheless, much remains to be played for. Other polls suggest that widespread disillusion with the Conservatives but little enthusiasm for Labour. Many constituencies are on a knife edge.

"The outcome in each constituency will depend on local factors that cannot be factored into pollsters’ models and how well the parties can mobilise their voters in the final two weeks. Here, the opposition parties may have the advantage. After 14 years of Conservative rule, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform party activists may simply have more motivation to get their parties to the winning post."

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