Prime Minister, we must talk about housing

Clive Hedges, branch manager at Arnolds Keys’ Coastal Hub in Sheringham, speaks about housing under a potential new government.

You will be reading this on Friday morning, as you wake up to find out who will be governing Britain for the next five years or so. Inevitably, I am writing this before the election has taken place, and I am not going to get all Mystic Meg and predict the result, but it seems clear that change is in the air.

It has been striking during this campaign how little the property market has been affected. Usually uncertainty about the political situation leads to a dip – temporarily at least – in confidence, and the market pauses until the situation is clear. But no such slowdown has happened this time around: in April, May and June my branch’s sales were all ahead of targets that were set well before Rishi Sunak’s announcement of a July General Election.

Partly this is because, in many people’s minds, the actual result of the poll has been clear from the start – it is uncertainty that damages confidence.

If people feel certain about the outcome, they will not put plans on hold. Of course, the polls have been wrong before, but for much of the campaign the debate has been not about who will win, but about the margin of victory.

Clive Hedges, branch manager at Arnolds Keys' Coastal Hub in Sheringham (Image: Arnolds Keys)

Another reason for continued confidence is that neither of the parties who will realistically form the next government have anything in their manifestos that will scare the markets.

Of course, election promises and what politicians actually do often diverge, but there is little to frighten the horses from either side.

Assuming the polls are correct and you are waking up to watch Keir Starmer walking into 10 Downing Street this morning, housing will be one of his early priorities.

Labour has promised reform of the planning process as part of a pledge to deliver many more new homes – affordable homes included – and if they are successful in delivering this, it will be just what the market needs.

A long-term mismatch between supply and demand continues to skew the market. Providing stability and sustainability will require a rebalancing that can only be achieved through building many more new homes.

The new government – of whichever political hue – will be helped by the prospect of lower interest rates across the summer and autumn, which will help affordability for first-time buyers in particular.

For a government with economic growth at the centre of its plans, housing is key. The housing crisis is a considerable constraining factor on growth itself, and solving that crisis is a big factor in delivering that promised growth.

So, housing must be an early priority of the new government.

For more information, visit arnoldskeys.com