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Redistricting fights in these states could determine which party controls the US House

Around the country, politicians are waging high-stakes battles over new congressional lines that could influence which party controls the US House of Representatives after the 2024 election.

In North Carolina, the Republicans who control the state legislature have crafted a map that could help them flip at least three seats. Democrats, meanwhile, could pick up seats under news lines in Alabama, Louisiana and New York.

In all, the fate of anywhere from 14 to 18 House seats across nearly a dozen states could turn on the results of these fights. Republicans currently hold just a narrow majority in the US House, with one vacancy. That razor-thin margin was underscored by the GOP’s recent chaotic struggle to elect a new speaker.

“Given that the majority is so narrow, every outcome matters to the fight for House control in 2024,” said David Wasserman, who follows redistricting closely as senior editor and elections analyst for The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

And with fewer competitive districts that swing between the political parties, Wasserman added, “every line change is almost existential.”

Experts say several other factors have helped lead to the slew of consequential – and unresolved – redistricting disputes, just months before the first primaries of the 2024 cycle.

They include pandemic-related delays in completing the 2020 census – the once-a-decade population count that kicks off congressional and state legislative redistricting – as well as a 2019 Supreme Court ruling that threw decisions about partisan gerrymandering back to state courts.

In addition, some litigation had been frozen in place until the US Supreme Court’s surprise ruling in June, which found that a Republican-crafted redistricting plan in Alabama disadvantaged Black voters in the state and was in violation of the landmark 1965 Voting Rights Act.

That decision “is functionally reanimating all of these dormant cases,” said Adam Kincaid, the president and executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, which supports the GOP’s redistricting efforts.

Kincaid said it’s too soon to tell whether Republicans or Democrats will emerge with the advantage by Election Day 2024. In his view, either party could gain or lose only about two seats over redistricting.

In many of the closely watched states where action is pending, just a single seat hangs in the balance, with two notable exceptions: North Carolina and New York, where multiple seats are at stake. Republicans controlled the map-drawing in the Tar Heel State, while a ruling by New York’s highest court leaves the job ultimately to the Democrats who control the state legislature, potentially canceling out each party’s gains.

“Democrats kind of need to run the table in the rest of these states” to gain any edge, said Nick Seabrook, a political scientist at the University of North Florida and the author of the 2022 book “One Person, One Vote: A Surprising History of Gerrymandering in America.”

Here’s a state-by-state look at recent and upcoming redistricting disputes that could shape the 2024 race for control of the US House:

North Carolina

North Carolina’s legislature, where Republicans hold a supermajority, has drawn new congressional lines that observers say could prove a windfall for the GOP and boost the party’s chances of retaining its House majority next year.

The state’s current House delegation is split 7-7 between Democrats and Republicans.

A map that state lawmakers recently approved puts three House Democrats in what one expert called “almost impossible to win” districts.

The affected Democrats are Reps. Jeff Jackson, who currently represents a Charlotte-area district; Wiley Nickel, who holds a Raleigh-area seat; and Kathy Manning, who represents Greensboro and other parts of north-central North Carolina. All three have announced they will not seek reelection to the House.

A fourth Democrat, Rep. Don Davis, saw his district retooled to become more friendly toward Republicans while remaining competitive for both parties.

State-level gains in the 2022 midterm elections have given the GOP new sway over redistricting in this swing state. Last year, Republicans flipped North Carolina’s Supreme Court, whose members are chosen in partisan elections. The new GOP majority on the court this year tossed out a 2022 ruling by the then-Democratic leaning court against partisan gerrymandering.

A map that had been created after the Democratic-led high court’s ruling resulted in the current even split in the state’s House delegation.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper does not have veto power over redistricting legislation. A group of Black and Latino residents of North Carolina recently filed a lawsuit alleging that the GOP-approved map “intentionally discriminates” against minority voters in violation of the US Constitution.

Alabama

In one of the cycle’s highest-profile redistricting cases, a three-judge panel in Alabama approved a map that creates a second congressional district with a substantial Black population. Before the court action, Alabama – which is 27% Black – had only one Black-majority congressional district out of seven seats.

The fight over the map went all the way to the Supreme Court – which issued a surprise ruling, affirming a lower-court opinion that ordered Alabama to include a second Black-majority district or “something quite close to it.” Under the map that will be in place for the 2024 election, the state’s 2nd District now loops into Mobile to create a seat where nearly half the population is Black.

The high court’s 5-4 decision in June saw two conservatives, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, side with the three liberals to uphold the lower-court ruling. Their action kept intact a key pillar of the Voting Rights Act: that it’s illegal to draw maps that effectively keep Black voters from electing a candidate of their choice.

The ruling has reverberated around the country and could affect the outcome of similar court cases underway in Louisiana and Georgia that center on whether Republican-drawn maps improperly diluted Black political power in those states.

Given that Black voters in Alabama have traditionally backed Democrats, the party now stands a better chance of winning the newly reconfigured district and sending to of its members to Congress after next year’s elections.

The new map also could result in two Black US House members from Alabama serving together for the first time in state history.

Louisiana

Facing a court-ordered deadline, the Republican-controlled state legislature in January approved a map with a second, Black-majority district that will be in effect for this year’s elections.

The action, which is viewed as a win for Democrats, endangers a seat now held by Republican Rep. Garret Graves.

The new map follows a protracted legal battle over the state’s district lines.

Although Black people make up roughly a third of the state’s population, Louisiana has just one Black lawmaker – who is also the lone Democrat – in its six-member congressional delegation.

A federal judge threw out the state’s Republican-drawn map in 2022, saying it likely violated the Voting Rights Act. Republican officials in the state appealed to the US Supreme Court, which put the lower-court ruling on hold until it decided the Alabama case, which it did in June this year.

Once the high court weighed in on the Alabama case, the legal skirmishes again lurched to life in Louisiana.

A federal court had given the GOP-controlled state legislature until the end of January to draw a new map, after deciding that the lower court had ruled correctly that the lawmakers’ map improperly diluted the voting power of Louisiana’s Black residents.

If the legislature had not acted by that deadline, the lower court could have proceeded to a full trial to resolve the map in time for this year’s elections.

Georgia

Georgia Republicans, who hold a governing trifecta in the state, finalized a new congressional map last year that safeguarded their party’s dominance in state politics and dashed Democrats’ hopes of adding an additional US House seat.

The new map complied with an order issued by US District Judge Steve Jones to establish an additional Black-majority district. But it preserved the GOP’s 9-5 edge in Georgia’s US House delegation by moving the Atlanta-area district represented by Rep. Lucy McBath, a Black Democrat, farther into Republican territory.

Jones had ordered state lawmakers to draw a new congressional map by December 8, arguing that the Republican-controlled legislature improperly diluted the political power of Black voters in their establishment of district boundaries following the 2020 census. In that ruling, Jones said state lawmakers’ earlier map had violated the Voting Rights Act.

In a big win for Republicans, Jones in late December ruled that the new legislature-drawn map that preserved Republicans’ 9-5 advantage “fully complied” with his order.

A separate federal case in Georgia challenges the congressional map on constitutional grounds.

New York

Republicans flipped four US House seats in New York in the 2022 midterm elections, victories that helped secure their party’s majority in the chamber.

But a new ruling by the state’s highest court could jeopardize those gains by potentially making it easier for Democrats to pick up as many as six GOP-held seats.

First, a bit of history: A state court judge oversaw the process of drawing the current map following a long legal battle and the inability of New York’s bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission to agree on new lines. But Democrats scored a court victory this summer when a state appellate court ruled that the redistricting commission should redraw the map.

Republicans appealed that decision, and oral arguments were held in November before New York’s Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court.

On December 12, the Court of Appeals ordered the state to once again restart the mapmaking process. New York’s redistricting commission will be tasked with creating the new districts by February 28. The Democratic-controlled state legislature would have ultimate say over the new map.

Florida

A state judge in September struck down congressional lines for northern Florida that had been championed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, ruling that the Republican governor’s map had improperly diluted Black voting power.

This case, unlike the Alabama fight decided by the US Supreme Court, centers on provisions in the state constitution.

The judge concluded that the congressional boundaries – which essentially dismantled a seat once held by Al Lawson, a Black Democrat, that connected Black communities across a northern reach of the Florida – violated the state’s Fair Districts amendments, enacted by voters. One amendment specifically bars the state from drawing a district that diminishes the ability of racial minorities “to elect representatives of their choice.”

But in December, a state appeals court upheld the map DeSantis had advocated, saying the plaintiffs “failed to present any evidence” that the earlier version of the district – which connected Black communities from Jacksonville to Tallahassee – contained a singular cohesive community that would have a right to protection under Florida’s constitution.

The case still could land before the all-Republican state Supreme Court, where DeSantis appointees hold most seats.

A separate federal case – which argues that the map violates the US Constitution – is pending.

Observers say the outcome of the state litigation is more likely than the federal case to determine the future of the North Florida district, given the state constitution’s especially strong protections for the voting rights of racial minorities and the lower burden of proof required to establish that those rights were abridged.

Kentucky

The Kentucky Supreme Court in December rejected arguments from Democrats that a map drawn by the state’s Republican-controlled legislature violated the state constitution as an “extreme partisan” gerrymander.

The dispute centered on lawmakers’ decision to move Kentucky’s capital city – Democratic-leaning Frankfort – out of the 6th Congressional District and into an oddly shaped – and solidly Republican – 1st District. Doing so helped shore up GOP odds of holding the 6th District, represented by Rep. Andy Barr.

The seat was among the more competitive ones in Kentucky under its previous lines. (Democrat Amy McGrath came within 3 points of beating Barr in 2018; last year, Barr won a sixth term under the new lines by 29 points.)

A lower-court judge had ruled that the Republican-drawn map did not violate the state’s constitution, and the state’s high court, in a December 14 ruling, agreed.

South Carolina

A redistricting case pending before the US Supreme Court centers on the future of a Charleston-area seat held by Republican Rep. Nancy Mace, who made headlines recently for joining House GOP hard-liners in voting to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker.

Earlier this year, a three-judge panel concluded that lines for the coastal 1st Congressional District, as drawn by state GOP lawmakers, amounted to an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The Republican lawmakers appealed to the US Supreme Court. During oral arguments, several justices in the court’s conservative majority expressed skepticism that South Carolina officials had engaged in an improper racial gerrymander and seemed inclined to reinstate the lawmakers’ map.

New Mexico

Republicans in New Mexico say the congressional lines drawn by the Democrats who control state government amount to an illegal gerrymander under the state’s constitution.

At stake: a swing district along the US border with Mexico. If Republicans prevail, the 2nd District seat – now held by a Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez – could become more favorable to Republicans.

A state judge in October upheld the map drawn by Democrats, and the New Mexico Supreme Court recently affirmed that ruling.

New Mexico GOP Chairman Steve Pearce, who represented an earlier version of the seat in Congress, said the party was “contemplating our next course of action in conference with our legal team.”

Utah

The state Supreme Court, in a case it heard in July, is considering whether it even has the authority to weigh in on map-drawing decisions by the GOP-controlled state legislature.

Republican state officials argue that the court’s power over redistricting decisions is limited.

Advocacy groups and a handful of voters are challenging a congressional map that further carved up Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County between four decidedly Republican districts.

Doing so, the plaintiffs argued in their lawsuit, “takes a slice of Salt Lake County and grafts it onto large swaths of the rest of Utah,” allowing Republican voters in rural areas and smaller cities far away from Salt Lake to “dictate the outcome of elections.”

Other states

Redistricting fights over congressional maps are ongoing in several other states – ranging from Texas to Tennessee – but those cases might not be resolved in time to affect next year’s elections.

This story has been updated with additional information.

CNN’s Ethan Cohen and Renée Rigdon contributed to this report.

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